KSH Holdings

[greengiraffe]

There has always been talk about KSH being a target of shorting, and a big one at that. I am not sure how true that is, but if true, perhaps the launch and good sales at GBD will force a short covering.

Since Mar19, the share price has declined from 51c to 41.5c

In this period, ~40mio shares were transacted, out of which only 500k were shorts. So the first conclusion should be that the price declines were not really due to shorts.

Something strange happened ard Jun21 - 12mio shares (i.e. 30% of total volume for past 4mths) were transacted during 20-25Jun (KSH has an average volume of 120k for the past 1y). It's quite clear that some bloke were out to to do something to a certain number of shares (e.g. QAF, Lian Beng, HLF, SBS etc) but I'm not sure what. KSH does not seem to be part of the FTSE or MSCI index so i doubt its rebalancing of these index nor triple witching. So there's certainly some strategy at work, but i'm not sure what.

Fundamentally, I think the price action is quite simple. KSH has always hung ard 40+c until Mar17 when analysts broke Gaobeidian and it rallied to 66c, and it rallied further. But as news of clampdown on property speculation in China, prop cooling in Sg, and then finally China-US trade war hit, all those who bot from 40+ to 90+c started to take profit wherever possible to lock-in gains, and thus spirals all the way back to where it started. 

When the herd reverses, everyone rushes to the single exit.

Thank you for the detailed analysis... v insightful...

witching or wizard of oz is all beyond me... 

roadside sources say the unexplained big movements in the small caps u mentioned is pertaining to obsecure FTSE index rebalancing... the unpublished ones so peasants like us will never understand and hence all the speculation...

main question now - is the total reversal in the price? Are we getting a previously touted gold mine for free? In the price? The herd flushed into sewerage? What is the outlook from here?

GG

[vbReader]

Last Friday was Triple Witching Day. The odd trading behavior was also observed on other non-property counters like QAF & SBS Transit.

Think Triple Witching explains part of the large MOC orders but it doesn't explain the big moves in non index stocks

I have been observing the strange behaviour of certain non index stocks on Triple Witching Days and was always puzzled by their movements.

Apart from the STI or MSCI SIMSCI, I do see other indices structured by FTSE that has smaller cap stocks as their constituents. 

https://www.ftserussell.com/products/indices/SGX-ST

FTSE Russell has partnered with Singapore Press Holdings (SPH) and the Singapore Exchange (SGX) to jointly calculate the Singapore stock market's main benchmark, the Straits Times Index (STI), and to create a broader series of indexes for the Singapore market representing various sized companies, sectors and themes. The indexes are suitable for benchmarking purposes and as tools in the creation of financial products such as institutional and retail funds, exchange traded funds (ETFs), derivatives contracts and other index-linked products.

I can't find a list of each index's full list of constituents, but attached in this post is their index series monthly report, where they list the top 10 constituents and top 5/bottom 5 performer constituents of each index they have. Stocks mentioned like QAF, Bukit Sembawang and other smaller cap stocks, even Blumont can be found in these lists.

I do note that not all stocks in their lists experience the same movement we were talking about but could this be a possible explanation for these spikes in volume or price action on certain days of the year?

[Salem]

Instead of speculating what and why the sell-down happened in KSH, let's attend the coming AGM near the end of this month and ask management how is the company doing and is the sell-down justified. The fundamentals of the company is more important than any share price manipulation, for the fundamentals will assert the fair value price eventually.

Btw, I never attended any AGM. Do they discuss the company's prospect during AGM?

[weijian]

Instead of speculating what and why the sell-down happened in KSH, let's attend the coming AGM near the end of this month and ask management how is the company doing and is the sell-down justified.  The fundamentals of the company is more important than any share price manipulation, for the fundamentals will assert the fair value price eventually.

Btw, I never attended any AGM.  Do they discuss the company's prospect during AGM?

hi Salem,
You are wise to be able to differentiate the signal from the noise.
As for asking "is the sell down justified?" to Mgt, generally i would rather Mgt focus on doing their job (signal) rather than trying to read Mr Market (noise).

So if we expect ourselves to be able to differentiate the signal and noise. We should also demand something similar from Mgt.

[Salem]

The price seems to be recovering today.  What did management say in AGM?

[Sumeria]

Fresh from the oven (ie, the AGM): I understand that its GBD project's first phase (100,000 sq m of space?) of Phase 1 (300,000 sq m of space?) has been soft launched. Official launch is a few months later. This should clear some uncertainty over the GBD project.

While the selling price for the units is now controlled by the government in GBD now, leading to a low launch price of RM8,000 psm, this is just the start, and later phases could presumably be higher over the 10-year phased-selling.

[Salem]

Fresh from the oven (ie, the AGM): I understand that its GBD project's first phase (100,000 sq m of space?) of Phase 1 (300,000 sq m of space?) has been soft launched. Official launch is a few months later. This should clear some uncertainty over the GBD project.

While the selling price for the units is now controlled by the government in GBD now, leading to a low launch price of RM8,000 psm, this is just the start, and later phases could presumably be higher over the 10-year phased-selling.

Thank you Sumeria for good summary.

Controlled price by government is just one of the many China unfair trade practices that Trump was angry at.  You don't find Singapore or any western governments control the selling prices of foreign developers.  China need to wake up!

[vbReader]

Just attended KSH's AGM, here is my takeaway of their key Gaobeidian(GBD) project from the meeting:

- Phase 1 of GBD project finally soft launched, partially on the municipal government's request. The launch coincided with a recent national rock climbing competition held at their Sino-Singapore Health City.

- They are now gathering interest and are proposing an official launch in October(hopefully no more further delays!).

- Exact reason for previous delays finally revealed, the municipal government imposed restrictions limiting sale of residential projects in GBD to only residents of GBD, mortgage loans were also blocked.

- This measure has only recently been lifted and non residents, ie from Beijing, Xiongan can buy residential units there, but must stay for 3 years at GBD to have the title deed transferred to them.

- Target customers will be those from Beijing, where the high speed rail only needs 19 minutes from Beijing to GBD. If the Xi Jinping led development of Xiongan new economic zone takes off, demand could also spillover from this area, which is just south of GBD.

-  This "first phase within a first" 500mu phase of the project has a net saleable area of 100,000sqm. Management is targeting a 50% take up rate.

- Prices for this phase no longer at RMB20,000psm as touted previously. RMB8,000psm being a more reasonable ASP now, I couldn't catch why so but it is probably due to government controls. Management hopes to gradually raise ASP if the initial phase sells well. This is being compared with RMB100,000psm ASP in Beijing itself.

- Construction for residential component of Phase 1 is already 50% complete, ie building has reached 10 out of 27 storeys. 

- The entire project is huge and management is still looking at a 10-15 years time frame, they can still bide for time for the tide to turn further in their favour.

To sum it up, now that the project has soft launched due to the lifting of certain cooling measures, the risk from this project never taking off is reduced. Of course we need to look at reported sales to be further convinced if and when they officially launch it.

All these are what I can gather from the AGM, fellow shareholders who attended feel free to correct me if I gotten any of the information wrong!

[cyclone]

@ KSH Holdings' AGM: Gaobeidian project to launch in Oct 2019 (finally)

Written by Leong Chan Teik
Published: 29 July 2019

When: 26 July 2019
Where: Furama Riverfront, Havelock Road

About two years ago, KSH Holdings shareholders were thrilled by the prospects of a KSH investment most had never heard of until then -- the Gaobeidian property development project in China's Hebei province.

Gaobeidian is just 40 km away from another area that Singaporeans have never heard of until then -- Xiong'an.

Chinese President Xi Jinping announced, on 1 April 2017, that Xiongan would be developed (at the cost of hundreds of billions of dollars) into China's third Special Economic Zone, after Shenzhen and Pudong.

The share price of KSH doubled within six months to 91 cents (Oct 2017, see chart).


Basic chart of KSH stock price: Bloomberg

Singapore listco Interest in Gaobeidian Project :
Oxley Holdings 27.5%
KSH Holdings 22.5%
SLB Development 10%
Heeton Holdings 7.5%

The new township in Gaobeidian to be developed by a consortium which includes KSH Holdings was expected to enjoy massive profitability.

Selling prices in the region of RMB20,000 per sq m were speculated.

That was still a fraction of property prices in Beijing just about 20 minutes away by high-speed train from Gaobeidian, which lies somewhere midway between Xiongan and Beijing.


Artist impression of Gaobeidian project. Source: Oxley annual report FY 2018.

So, the logic goes, Beijing residents (and others) would snap up the Gaobeidian project.

However, the government imposed cooling measures to curb property speculation -- which, among other things, restricted buying by Beijing residents.

Bank loans were also halted.

Then the US-China trade war heated up, affecting economic sentiment in China and further diminishing chances of the Gaobeidian project achieving super prices.

The official launch of the project, whose full name is Sino-Singapore Health City Project, scheduled for 2017 was pushed back to 2018 -- and then delayed again.

At KSH Holdings AGM last Friday, shareholders asked for updates -- and were greeted with good news.

KSH's executive chairman, Choo Chee Onn, said the government had recently approved of Beijing residents buying into the project and certain loan restrictions had been lifted.

Construction started last year and phase 1 of the project has been soft-launched. Official launch would be in October 2019.

More details in https://nextinsight.net/story-archive-ma...nch-in-oct

[Sumeria]

Pictorial updates on KSH's Gaobeidian first phase launch. The two almost completed buildings look likely to be the two commercial buildings as identified on the last picture. 

Taken from this website:
http://gaobeidian.jiwu.com/tu/list-loupan835502.html

[Image: origin] [Image: pc900x0][Image: pc900x0][Image: 170234193943.jpg][Image: 17033919619.jpg]