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(29-04-2013, 09:33 AM)KopiKat Wrote: (29-04-2013, 12:36 AM)Dividend Warrior Wrote: I am expecting a dividend cut......
Dividend cut started from 2H (Mar12) and will continue to slide due to lower EPS,
1H (Sep12) : 1.5ct
2H (Mar12) : 5.7ct
1H (Sep11) : 1.75ct
2H (Mar11) : 6.75ct
1H (Sep10) : 1.75ct
2H (Mar10) : 6.75ct
1H (Sep09) : 1.75ct
2H (Mar09) : 6ct
1H (Sep08) : 1.75ct
With EPS = 6.3ct (9M) & Profit Guidance given for Q4 (ie loss), even if we assume EPS = 0ct for Q4, the balance EPS available (assuming 100% payout) for distribution = 6.3ct - 1.5ct = 4.8ct.
This is already lower than last year's 5.7ct. So, a Q4 loss and less than 100% payout can only mean an even bigger cut.
Yes, interesting to see the outcome, and Mr Market reaction to it...
“夏则资皮，冬则资纱，旱则资船，水则资车” - 范蠡
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dividends cut = share price drop = accumulate MORE!
1) Try NOT to LOSE money!
2) Do NOT SELL in BEAR, BUY-BUY-BUY! invest in managements/companies that does the same!
3) CASH in hand is KING in BEAR!
4) In BULL, SELL-SELL-SELL!
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29-04-2013, 11:24 PM
(This post was last modified: 29-04-2013, 11:25 PM by simsboon.)
Hi everyone,
I'm not an expert in value investing but i would like to share something. What i see is that SMRT's current FCF only around 11 million. Thus, its dividend payout to FCF ratio is more than 100%.
Whereas, if you compare it to comfortdelgro, its dividend payout to FCF ratio is only around 50%.
cheerss
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SMRT final dividend has been cut to 1c/share from 5.7c/share! Quite a drastic reduction.
Considering it was reported in the news yesterday of a possible rail crack, I think SMRT has to step up efforts and spend more $ to solve this potentially hazardous issue.....
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30-04-2013, 08:28 AM
(This post was last modified: 30-04-2013, 08:30 AM by yeokiwi.)
There is no such thing as evergreen stock, even for a blue chip.
Unless there is a rethink of fare adjustment mechanism and rail business model, it is difficult for SMRT to return to previous level of profitability.
Looking at the shareholding statistics in FY12, there are 46,123 shareholders holding less than or equal to 10 lots.(9.49%)
And the banks' nominees are holding more than 17% of the SMRT stocks.(CPF??)
It is going make a dent to many retail investors' savings.
If we assume that SMRT should yield 4%, then the expected price of SMRT share will be around 62cts.
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Nobody ever says dividends are guaranteed!
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