Italian Referendum

[BlueKelah]

I am gonna put out a poll to say Renzi in or out after the vote
Much like Cameron, young Renzi is putting himself on the chopping block, recent polls seem to suggest him losing.

Some background but I am sure most of you are aware already....

What Does Italy’s Constitutional Referendum Mean for Its Banks?

What will happen to Monte dei Paschi if its recapitalization plan fails?
There could be a run on deposits. In that case, the Bank of Italy could extend emergency loans. The government could guarantee the bank’s debt, inject capital directly into MPS, or guarantee a cash call by the lender. The government could also force the conversion of so-called subordinated debt into equity, as required by new European bank rules, thus inflicting painful losses on the huge numbers of Italian retail investors holding such debt.

Can Monte dei Paschi’s failure hurt other banks in Italy and Europe?
Yes. Analysts fear a contagion effect, with a possible drain on deposits at smaller and weaker banks in Italy. Lenders elsewhere in Europe, such as Spain’s Banco Popular, Portugal’s Caixa Geral de Depósitos and even Deutsche Bank may see their shares battered. Moreover, a loss of confidence in the banks could depress the economy, hurting lending and investments.

From bloomberg :
After Brexit and Trump, It’s Italy’s Turn to Keep Traders Awake

[brattzz]

times are good for shorting european bank shares ya?

[BlueKelah]

times are good for shorting european bank shares ya?

I think too late liao loh, most europe banks should have been shorted liao loh since the pre-referendum polls show Renzi might be losing.

Monte dei Paschi’s Future Hangs on Sunday Vote

Another round of volatility which will affect the year end window dressing of the local fund managers for sure if Renzi loses. Maybe become like Greece default contagion since this bank is likely to really go KAPUT if Renzi loses.

The other thing is end of this week is OPEC meeting results. If there is no deal from there, could be DOUBLE WHAMMY for markets this weekend as oil goes towards $30 again and commodities all sink with it. Even Trump is not going to able to help that.

Triple whammy will be when FED announce rate rise...


I am eagerly waiting  for another round of correction...

[Bluechipfan]

Left with potential double whammy as OPEC has sealed the deal to cut production. Better be caution if want to short European assets. Look like Fed rate hike is more concrete than the outcome of referendum. It does appears that Euro currency is holding fits place currently but to be transparent I have to declare that I have been holding short position on eur/usd for a while now.

[BlueKelah]

haha maybe only fed rate rise is a potential whammy left. Looks like most VBs not interested in the Italian referendum. Even my broker also said he dunno about this news, all eyes on the rising oil price and oil counters

[BlueKelah]

exciting election in Austria for president also tonight, closing in 1 hours time ahead of the italian referendum. Could lead to Oexit vote if the Hofer guy wins. Maybe EU really start to break apart next year

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BBC : Austria presidential election re-run 'too close to call'

Austrians are voting in a re-run of a presidential election which pits far-right Freedom Party candidate Norbert Hofer against former Green Party head Alexander Van der Bellen.


The vote last May was narrowly won by Mr Van der Bellen, but the result was overturned by Austria's highest court because of irregularities in the count.
If Mr Hofer wins, he will become the EU's first far-right head of state.

Opinion polls held in November suggest the vote is too close to call.

Although the role is largely ceremonial, the vote is being watched as a barometer of how well populist candidates will do in upcoming elections.


Mr Hofer has campaigned on an anti-immigration platform, and initially said Austria could follow Britain's vote to leave the EU with a referendum of its own. Mr Van der Bellen has told Austrians it is proof that Mr Hofer is in favour of "Oexit" (a reference to Austria's name in German, Oesterreich).



BTW thanks for voting guys. 3 for Renzi lose and 1 for Renzi win.

let's see result tomorrow morning, good night ;P 

[specuvestor]

haha maybe only fed rate rise is a potential whammy left. Looks like most VBs not interested in the Italian referendum. Even my broker also said he dunno about this news, all eyes on the rising oil price and oil counters

It's not disinterested. More because not informed enough to hazard a guess

[Bluechipfan]

Closed partial short position on eur/usd. Look out for Italy banks now in danger of asking State for fund.

[BlueKelah]

Well its confirmed and over now and bye bye Renzi. Mostly a non event for markets globally.
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Renzi Quits as Italy Referendum Defeat Deepens Europe’s Turmoil
[url=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-04/renzi-heading-for-defeat-in-italian-referendum-exit-polls-show][/url] by John Follain and Chiara Albanese 

December 4, 2016 — 5:06 PM EST December 4, 2016 — 8:42 PM EST

• Italy prime minister says he takes all responsibility for loss
  
• Euro drops more than 1% on political risks for Europe
  

Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi quit in the early hours of Monday after losing a referendum he’d called to push through constitutional changes, threatening renewed political and financial turmoil for Europe.

Opponents of Renzi’s proposal to rein in the power of the senate won Sunday’s referendum by 60 percent to 40 percent, with almost all votes counted. Renzi said he’ll turn in his resignation to President Sergio Mattarella later in the day and signaled that he won’t stay on to help stabilize a caretaker administration. The euro fell to a 20-month low.

“In Italian politics, no one ever wins,” Renzi told supporters, his voice breaking and a tear on his cheek as he thanked his wife for her support. “I did everything I thought possible in this phase, but we were not convincing.”


The 41-year-old premier became the second European leader this year to be toppled by a populist revolt that is propelling Donald Trump into the White House and Britain out of the European Union. The result leaves Mattarella seeking a new government chief who can provide a firebreak against the insurgents; polls show an early election would see the anti-euro Five Star Movement swept into power.

A survey by EMG released Sunday showed Five Star winning a second-round ballot by 53 percent to 47 percent against Renzi’s Democratic Party and by 57 percent to 43 percent against the center-right bloc. Five Star had demanded a snap election if Renzi is defeated as it looks to force another referendum -- this time on taking Italy out of the euro.

Still, a poll last month showed only 15.2 percent favored leaving the single currency and 67.4 percent were self-described single-currency believers.

Who’s Next?
Possible successors who might be asked to lead a caretaker government include Finance Minister Pier Carlo Padoan, Senate Speaker Pietro Grasso and Culture Minister Dario Franceschini. The country’s mainstream parties have been preparing contingency plans to ensure a government would keep functioning if Renzi was forced out.

The result is “a negative outcome for both political stability and the economy in Italy,” said Wolfango Piccoli, co-president of research firm Teneo Intelligence. “However, it will not pave the way for immediate worst-case scenarios such as snap elections.”

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA will be in focus when trading opens Monday. The lender is in the middle of a 5 billion-euro ($5.3 billion) capital raising. Its stock has fallen 83 percent this year and a third of its loan book has soured.

Italian bonds may feel a shock too. They rallied in the final days of the campaign, with the spread between the country’s 10-year debt and similar dated German bunds narrowed by 24 basis points to 162 points.

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will have to see how Monte Paschi goes now.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...cktake-q-a

[brattzz]

hey! i got the bet right! where's my kopi treat BlueK?