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I would attribute some of this to recency bias. (cognitive bias that causes us to assume that future events will resemble recent experiences.) Nearly everyone had a good run with S&P / AI, hence there are many investment geniuses with very impressive short term trading record. But the fact remains that US GDP and profit growth did not match the rise in valuations. Can S&P continue its upward trajectory in vaulations without a similar growth in fundamentals? It can to a certain point, until it cant. And if history is any guide, we are closer to that point than ever before.
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(6 hours ago)weijian Wrote: ..
Is timing the market more important OR time in the market? ..
Also important, or even more importantly is, are you
right in the first place? Specifically, right on your assessment on the specific instrument you choose to invest in. Be it about STI, HSI, SPY, or KWEB.
The same philosophy can't be blindly transplanted from one market (or even time frames) to another without considering the specific context of the market (is it one that Adam Smith's free market principle is functioning properly?)
“If you buy a business just because it’s undervalued, then you have to worry about selling it when it reaches its intrinsic value. That’s hard. But if you can buy a few great companies, then you can sit on your ass. That’s a good thing.” - Charlie Munger
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