I find the following article interesting more as a gd historical summary of the last decade and the current situation(esp the 1st point on stocks) than the predictions.
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5 Bold Predictions For The Decade Ahead
Eric Parnell, CFA Dec. 31, 2019 1:00 PM ET
An extraordinary decade for capital markets is drawing to a close. Over the course of the 2010s, the S&P 500 gained more than +250%, the long-term bond market increased in value by more than +100%, and even gold was higher in value by more than +30%.
Prediction #1: The U.S. stock market gets cut in half once more.
.....First, stocks are historically expensive at 24.3 times trailing 12-month earnings and 30.9 times 10-year cyclically adjusted earnings. Expensive so much so that the current long-term valuation on the S&P 500 implies that investors should expect an average annualized total return of -2% over the next decade based on long-term historical precedence.
Second, corporations through share buybacks have been the sole and almost exclusive primary marginal buyer of stocks throughout the post-crisis period, as retail and institutional investors have been net sellers of domestic equities throughout the entire decade of the 2010s. In short, once increasingly overleveraged corporations stop buying stocks when the next recession hits, essentially nobody is likely going to be there to even begin filling the buying void for many hundreds of S&P points.
Third, much if not all of the fiscal and monetary policy stimulus that might stop a major stock market decline is essentially gone and out the window. How much more debt and balance sheet expansion will be sacrificed in the future to save a stock market that fails to generate a wealth effect to generate the broader economy anyway?.....
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4314711...cade-ahead
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