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(11-10-2018, 09:19 AM)opmi Wrote: (11-10-2018, 08:20 AM)BlueKelah Wrote: ![[Image: 9076df50e72deb8c4a1ab48d36c9ad59.jpg]](https://i.pinimg.com/originals/90/76/df/9076df50e72deb8c4a1ab48d36c9ad59.jpg)
pretty bad sell down last night on american markets. Black Wednesday??
Wa...so early in the morning bring out Ding Xie already...hahahaha,,
At least put a smile on ur face right?
Most of the vb here should be rejoicing bro  STI goin back down below 3000 soon, time to bring out the elephant guns again..kekeke...
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11-10-2018, 03:28 PM
(This post was last modified: 11-10-2018, 03:56 PM by AQ..)
(11-10-2018, 12:00 PM)BlueKelah Wrote: Most of the vb here should be rejoicing bro STI goin back down below 3000 soon, time to bring out the elephant guns again..kekeke...
Just spent the last 6 hrs buying every 30min... 
Just goes to show (again and again) that when in Asia, there's no real need to take idiosyncratic risks on single names during normal times - just spray into a huge basket during times of systemic fears.
Happy hunting folks!
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11-10-2018, 10:15 PM
(This post was last modified: 11-10-2018, 10:16 PM by Wildreamz.)
The long term reward is much better, and funner to me, to pick and hold long-term winners and tell people: "I told you so" 5-10 years from now.
The stock I sold in a moment of weakness was Tencent. I'm still a believer long term, but they are going through some tough times due to regulation, and competition from Bytedance. Which makes their valuation too high, even after a 40% correction from the peak.
I guess they should blame themselves for not putting the well-being of their customers first (game addiction among some young gamers). And I should blame myself for not seeing this coming earlier.
Locked in some profits, but a far cry from if I sold at the peak, haha.
“If you buy a business just because it’s undervalued, then you have to worry about selling it when it reaches its intrinsic value. That’s hard. But if you can buy a few great companies, then you can sit on your ass. That’s a good thing.” - Charlie Munger
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Interesting article by John Authers, whom I used to follow in the Financial Times, before he (recently) joined bloomberg:
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/...aying-much
He suggests that, reading between the lines, the FED is significantly more hawkish in terms of interest rate expectations than the markets are.
The FED has hiked three times this year, with another hike in December considered almost certain. If they do hike three or four more times next year, things are going to get interesting. The interest rate differential between most currencies and the USD has been causing a flow into USD, and an outflow from, particularly, emerging markets. It has been a gradual process, with some squeaks and groans (Argentina, Turkey). I suspect it is like plate tectonics - the tension will keep building, until it gets released in a convulsion.
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Especially credit has been readily available all these while. Its like the well water used to be abundant so everyone take a pail everyday and waste it. Now the well is drying up.
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The fed in my opinion is still quite accommodative. If it really wants to tighten liquidity, the easiest way would be to quicken its balance sheet reduction rate. At the moment, it is reducing it by US 50 billion per month. With a balance sheet of US$ 4.2 trillion, its going to take awfully slow to reduce it to pre-crisis level of below 1 trillion.
I will tell Trump ok I wont increase interest rates but i will double the de-leveraging rate from US$50 billlion to US $100 billion per month.
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(20-10-2018, 04:38 PM)CY09 Wrote: The fed in my opinion is still quite accommodative. If it really wants to tighten liquidity, the easiest way would be to quicken its balance sheet reduction rate. At the moment, it is reducing it by US 50 billion per month. With a balance sheet of US$ 4.2 trillion, its going to take awfully slow to reduce it to pre-crisis level of below 1 trillion.
I will tell Trump ok I wont increase interest rates but i will double the de-leveraging rate from US$50 billlion to US $100 billion per month.
3 trillion is a lot of qe money swimming around in the system causing low productivity growth and low wage growth. Take this away and we will have another gfc.
Imho the current inflation in usa is a result of a start of a hyperinflationary environment. The result of massive monetary stimulus was supposed to be hyperinflation, but so far that has not happened which i deem is due to a really sluggish economy. The jobs numbers may looked good,but they dont account for all those people out of workforce, out of unemployment benefit system and given up looking for work.
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25-10-2018, 03:07 PM
(This post was last modified: 25-10-2018, 03:10 PM by BlueKelah.)
Another Brutal day for US Stocks. STI also collapsed below 3000 point as expected. Next week expecting China PMI to be negative and more stuff will hit the fan ;D
@opmi : hope its not too early this time for 丁蟹? 
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Time for China to step up and show its might - Yi Gang has hinted financial stability in shadows and so it's going to be massive easing again with support for corporate bonds as first step.
On hindsight cracking down on HNA/Anbang and gang early was wise as PBoC+State now has room to stimulate domestic with exports set for a long war.
Prob opportune time for US equities to crack just b4 US midterms as inflationary pressures from tariffs+labor show up in US corp results
It's nice to be cashed up and spraying the basket.
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The current bear market has lasted longer than I have expected. Could this be the start of the bear everyone has been expecting?
Market indices are certainly lower, but I think the market is still very much efficient as the good stocks still aren't really cheap. I haven't been able to buy anything I've been eyeing, yet. I guess we are still some way from the kind of fear that will produce next decade's multi bagger...
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