Noble Group

[Behappyalways]

Iceberg Research
https://icebergresearch.files.wordpress....ility2.pdf

[CityFarmer]

Once you focus on the issue and find the solution, rather than on personal ego, the situation will get better over time. The Chairman and its team, has realized that, and became a wiser team, IMO.  

Allegations raised by latest Iceberg should be of ‘no concern to shareholders’: SIAS

SINGAPORE (March 1): The Securities Investors Association or SIAS has determined that the allegations raised by the latest Iceberg blog report should be of no concern to shareholders.

SIAS said it came to the conclusion after studying media and analysts’ coverage following Iceberg’s fourth report and meeting with Noble’s senior management on Tuesday.

SIAS also noted that the Iceberg report had no discernible impact on Noble’s share price and also that the day after the report and Noble’s announcement of its FY2015 results, Noble’s share price rose 6%, demonstrating return in investor confidence.
...
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/sg/article...80%99-sias

[BlueKelah]

Once you focus on the issue and find the solution, rather than on personal ego, the situation will get better over time. The Chairman and its team, has realized that, and became a wiser team, IMO.  

Allegations raised by latest Iceberg should be of ‘no concern to shareholders’: SIAS

SINGAPORE (March 1): The Securities Investors Association or SIAS has determined that the allegations raised by the latest Iceberg blog report should be of no concern to shareholders.

SIAS said it came to the conclusion after studying media and analysts’ coverage following Iceberg’s fourth report and meeting with Noble’s senior management on Tuesday.

SIAS also noted that the Iceberg report had no discernible impact on Noble’s share price and also that the day after the report and Noble’s announcement of its FY2015 results, Noble’s share price rose 6%, demonstrating return in investor confidence.
...
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/sg/article...80%99-sias

I would think that most of the weak holders of Noble stock have already thrown in the towel and sold out of the stock. As such the stock price is currently just held up by some big boys and possibly speculators riding on the rebound this week on higher oil/commodity prices.

Noble is still quite a sizeable enterprise and it will likely take a more prolonged period of depressed commodity prices to expose any serious accounting flaws in the company if any.
Share price has already reflected both the crash in commodities and loss of confidence in the company. It was $2.30+ in 2011 and now its almost 10 times less at 34c ten years later. This is pretty ridiculous considering it is a blue chip company and part of STI index.

Wouldn't put too much weight on what SIAS concludes. After all they are limited in what they can find out from company. If they are able to do an impartial audit and share the results then it would be much more convincing, but we all know that's not gonna happen ;P

[BlueKelah]

The long awaited removal from STI. 

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https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/strugg...00598.html

Struggling Noble Group kicked out of benchmark Straits Times Index

CapitaCommercial Trust will take its place.
Asia’s largest commodity trader endured another blow this morning after it was removed from Singapore’s benchmark Straits Times Index.
The STI is the benchmark index for the Singapore stock market, and tracks the performance of the top 30 companies listed on the Singapore Exchange.It is jointly calculated by Singapore Press Holdings (SPH), Singapore Exchange (SGX) and FTSE Group (FTSE).
CapitaLand Commercial Trust will take Noble Group’s spot on the Index. 
The STI reserve list, comprising the five highest ranking non-constituents of the STI by market capitalisation, will be Suntec REIT, Neptune Orient Lines, First Resources Ltd., Singapore Post Ltd and Keppel REIT. Companies on the reserve list will replace any constituents that become ineligible as a result of corporate actions, before the next review.
All constituent changes take effect at the start of business on 21 March 2016 and the next review will take place on 2 June 2016.The indexes are reviewed half-yearly in accordance with the index ground rules and reviewed quarterly to fast-track the inclusion of eligible IPO stocks.

[CityFarmer]

Noble is 46 cents per share now. The management team has focused right on the issues, amid noises, and Mr. Market is seeing it...

(not vested)

Noble Group debt back above US$0.50 as commodity distress eases
08 Mar 2016 10:11
[SINGAPORE] Noble Group's plans to refinance loans due next month are getting a boost??as the commodities collapse eases.

Bonds due 2018 from the resources trading company,??which has been cut to junk and will be removed from Singapore's Straits Times Index, recovered to 59 US cents on the dollar Monday from as low as 41 US cents on Jan. 22, a period in which its shares surged by almost 60 per cent.

Noble Group is also the top- performer from Southeast Asia in a Bank of America Merrill Lynch Asian high yield index, after commodity prices climbed 8 per cent from a January low.
...
BLOOMBERG

Source: Business Times Breaking News

[CY09]

Hi Cityfarmer, I think the recent rally has nothing to do at all with management.

Ezra has moved from 5.8 cents to 11.3 cents with the news of only the Lee family trying to sell their residence. Similar increases have been noted for Ezion, Rickmers maritime as well. To me, i think its just a bounce from an oversold position.

[CityFarmer]

The next issue to solve, is the near term maturity of debts. The lenders' confidence are slowly recovering, IMO...

(not vested)

Noble Group seeks US$2.5 bil in borrowing base facility: sources

BENGALURU (March 9): Global energy firm Noble Group is in the market with a US$2.5 billion ($3.5 billion), one-year borrowing base revolving credit facility that will refinance existing debt due later this year, banking sources told Thomson Reuters LPC.

The renewal of Noble loans is eagerly watched by the market as the most important development this year for the embattled trader of commodities from iron ore to oil, which suffered a dip in investor confidence over the past year.

The loans that have Noble Americas as borrower include a US$1.5 billion committed loan and a US$1 billion uncommitted loan, which lenders can refuse to provide.
...
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/sg/article...ty-sources

[specuvestor]

Noble will always have near term debt for working capital purpose. That's the nature of its business. Just as banks are leveraged business so any point of time we can cite overleverage as a concern. More difficult question is how they manage their business.

If this $3.5b renewal goes through I think the worst is over. It also demonstrates it has real commodity in transit to be collaterialsed. They had been paying back their bonds ie CNY and MYR bond in Jan and THB2.85b bond due in April.

It's been 9 months since the Mr Dee saga and Iceberg's 4th letter is inconsequential. Valley of death probably passed.

I find mr dee's letter strange. As an individual he could respond within an hour. I wonder how long did Morgan Stanley take to respond to the dot com allegations. Surely he cant be unaware of protocols?

Similarly since when did Morgan Stanley research reveals their modelling to the public?

And he still comparing Noble with Dow index. Maybe he should compare Morgan Stanley with CSI index

Everyone is entitled to their opinion but not to their facts. If someone claim mr dee was fired from Temasek after just a 20 months stint would he leave the guy alone? Why shouldn't Noble sue for serious allegations of accounting impropriety?

He has no skin in the issue yet he dare others to add skin to the game. And he wants to be contacted... Based on what? Advocate for Noble shareholders?

And thats with so called 30 years of experience. Probably not so sweet experiences. I'm glad i don't know this guy.

Isn't the bigger issue at hand the fact that his points are actually valid, and have been raised multiple times (but never addressed satisfactorily). I don't really understand the hatred against Mr. Dee here where he's actually seeking the answers for minority shareholders (who failed to get an adequate reply).

He's seeking the facts here - which shareholders are perfectly entitled to, especially when serious concerns about the financial statements are raised.

Hate? There's no hate I'm generally disgusted when people dont "talk" properly (VBs here will know). Besides what i raised above, the tone of his voice in the letter is revealing. Sure shareholders' request should be answered but the guy is not even vested according to him!

The playing field has to be even, like what i posted previously. Else the whole system will break down. You cant have a random person every now and then raise serious allegations without accountability. Its much more difficult to build than to destroy.

I disagree with GG we need more people like Dee, we actually need more people like Oei Hong Leong or even David Webb. 事后孔明 are dime a dozen.

Yancoal valuation is certainly not at current market price either. The dynamics with Yanzhou Coal is obvious. Receivables or inventory collateralised financing is not unusual. If anything it increases the chance the stuff are real.

The only thing i thought was interesting in the Iceberg report (i hope people read it) is the purchase and sale price of the subsi. Like i said before Noble is much more opportunistic and speculative in business vs say Olam, and likely aggressive in their accounting. But to claim they are fraudulent or not compliant to IFRS is another matter altogether

PS Iceberg had said that in the 3rd report it will reveal the author. It didnt. Noble has pulled out a name. The only thing respectable about Dee is that he didn't hide behind a facade

OHL is a corporate raider. IMHO, OHL is an opportunist. I prefer real businessmen like DR Wee, FF Wong, Towkay Charoen.

There is a lack of activists here to stand up for minorities and hence plenty of crooks get away with their act.

GG

Yup neither OHL Webb or Dee are businessman that's why I lump them together. Activists or raider is a very thin line for the large players. Natsteel shareholders benefitted tremendously from OHL but I can't say he is philanthropic. Ditto Ackman or Icahn

OTOH Charoen is hardly non opportunistic or non raider

In general I agree businessman are better than financiers, if and only if their structure shares fruits with shareholders. And in general I think harsher penalties and more clauses for minority oppression redress is better than activist investing because these activists are the same financiers which you 2nd rate and looking at short term equity gains rather than business development like a businessman.

[CityFarmer]

Noble will always have near term debt for working capital purpose. That's the nature of its business. Just as banks are leveraged business so any point of time we can cite overleverage as a concern. More difficult question is how they manage their business.

If this $3.5b renewal goes through I think the worst is over. It also demonstrates it has real commodity in transit to be collaterialsed. They had been paying back their bonds ie CNY and MYR bond in Jan and THB2.85b bond due in April.

It's been 9 months since the Mr Dee saga and Iceberg's 4th letter is inconsequential. Valley of death probably passed.

I concur. While I am still confused by its derivatives, but I reckon, you have put up a good insight on its current state.

I reckon, the debts, as part of the business needs, have became more expansive, with the collateral, right? In the past, the debts are mostly non collateralized, right?

(not vested)

[CY09]

This is where it gets interesting, below attached is the breakdown of its derivatives, which are parked under current assets/liabilities

It is interesting it extends beyond a period of 4 years...
Maturity of Noble's debts do not extend beyond 2020; but are yet spread between the 2 categories of current and non current liabilities. Accounting is such an interesting subject!