Noble Group

[vesfreq]

Latest update:

Phillips CFD margin requirements on Noble raised from:


Kindly be informed that CFD Department will be increasing the margin requirements for Noble group from 15% to 20% with effect from 13th Aug 2015 after the market closes.

Please ensure that your account has sufficient funds to cater for the increase in margin requirement.

Should you have any queries, feel free to call Phillip CFD at 6336 4564.


Understand that OCBC also tightening on Noble... updates to follow...

Phillips Securities announced trading restrictions after mkt close today...

Can we expect more broking houses to impose similar restrictions just like bankers withdrawing umbrella when the sky opens up?

This is very bad. Sounds like a nail whacked to seal the coffin. With potentially fewer players or trader, prices look quite certain to retreat downwards.

[charlesgee]

Damn! Moving again ...up...where' s iceberg, muddywaters & Michael Dee? Why never stand up claim their clients are fakes?

[charlesgee]

Hope Michael Dee, Iceberg & Muddywaters ask some questions later. At least show they can stand up, rather than hide behind & be rumour mongers?

[CityFarmer]

The Investor Day, is a milestone...

Noble seeks Investor Day turnaround as share price dives

...
Noble is scheduled to hold an Investor Day on Monday afternoon to give stakeholders and opportunity to ask questions.
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/sg/article...rice-dives

[CityFarmer]

The Investor Day, is a milestone...

Noble seeks Investor Day turnaround as share price dives

...
Noble is scheduled to hold an Investor Day on Monday afternoon to give stakeholders and opportunity to ask questions.
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/sg/article...rice-dives

That's all from the Investor Day?

Noble’s fix for commodities funk: Geographic diversification

SINGAPORE (Aug 17): Yusuf Alireza, chief executive of Singapore-listed commodities trader Noble Group (Financial Dashboard), says at a stakeholder engagement day that he believes shareholders “will be very surprised” about the company’s future performance.

Alireza says Noble expects annual operating income of US$2 billion ($2.8 billion) in the next three to five years. He says commodities are likely to be in a bear market for a fifth year straight year in 2015 but argues the company is diversifying to protect itself and make money despite the conditions.

Alireza says Noble’s business in China, one of its toughest markets as its economy slows, accounts for 32% of volumes by tonnage, from 42% in 2008, while Noble has expanded its US exposure to 32% from 12% in 2008.

“Portfolio businesses are actually returning a pretty good return on equity,” he says, adding that the company’s core businesses made US$612 billion net income in the last 12 months to the end of June.
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/sg/article...sification

[Sampling]

It went down further after this announcement!

The Investor Day, is a milestone...

Noble seeks Investor Day turnaround as share price dives

...
Noble is scheduled to hold an Investor Day on Monday afternoon to give stakeholders and opportunity to ask questions.
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/sg/article...rice-dives

That's all from the Investor Day?

Noble’s fix for commodities funk: Geographic diversification

SINGAPORE (Aug 17): Yusuf Alireza, chief executive of Singapore-listed commodities trader Noble Group (Financial Dashboard), says at a stakeholder engagement day that he believes shareholders “will be very surprised” about the company’s future performance.

Alireza says Noble expects annual operating income of US$2 billion ($2.8 billion) in the next three to five years. He says commodities are likely to be in a bear market for a fifth year straight year in 2015 but argues the company is diversifying to protect itself and make money despite the conditions.

Alireza says Noble’s business in China, one of its toughest markets as its economy slows, accounts for 32% of volumes by tonnage, from 42% in 2008, while Noble has expanded its US exposure to 32% from 12% in 2008.

“Portfolio businesses are actually returning a pretty good return on equity,” he says, adding that the company’s core businesses made US$612 billion net income in the last 12 months to the end of June.
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/sg/article...sification

[cfa]

Investors have little trust in the management after last AGM .

[CityFarmer]

More on the company CEO...

and the presentation slides of the Investor Day
http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/20150817...eID=365471

Noble Group will consider all options to strengthen balance sheet: CEO

SINGAPORE (Aug 17): Noble Group ( Financial Dashboard)'s top priority now is to strengthen its balance sheet, and the management will consider all options to achieve that, including selling businesses and stake to interested parties, local media quoted CEO Yusuf Alireza as saying on Monday.

He made that comment at Noble's Investor Day when shareholders asked whether the embattled firm is looking for a white knight for rescue.

"We must first and foremost strengthen our balance sheet ... It is our responsibility to look at all options, including selling what under normal circumstances we consider to be core businesses."
...
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/sg/article...-sheet-ceo

[greengiraffe]

UOB KH announced that Noble under watch list...

Latest update:

Phillips CFD margin requirements on Noble raised from:


Kindly be informed that CFD Department will be increasing the margin requirements for Noble group from 15% to 20% with effect from 13th Aug 2015 after the market closes.

Please ensure that your account has sufficient funds to cater for the increase in margin requirement.

Should you have any queries, feel free to call Phillip CFD at 6336 4564.


Understand that OCBC also tightening on Noble... updates to follow...

Phillips Securities announced trading restrictions after mkt close today...

Can we expect more broking houses to impose similar restrictions just like bankers withdrawing umbrella when the sky opens up?

[greengiraffe]

GS:

Investor Day – coal/commodities prices key for share price recovery
News
On Aug 17 we attended an Investor Day in Singapore hosted by Noble
Group’s CEO and key members of management.
Analysis
Earnings less reliant on coal, but majority of derivative assets still coal
– Energy coal and Carbon Steel Materials (CSM) contributions have
declined from 64% (average of 2008/09) of Noble’s gross profits to 27%
over the last twelve months. However, we note the majority of Noble’s
derivative net assets (which account for 78% of 2Q15 equity) are still from
Energy coal and CSM, where we are less constructive on the LT price
outlook. Management also mentioned that Noble’s Yancoal investment
‘would not be worth much’ if coal prices do not recover.
FCF positive within the next 12M; gross profit target of US$2bn –
Management guided that, ceteris paribus, FCF is expected to turn positive
over the next 12 months on cost savings and lower working capital from
the shrinking of businesses that are not currently profitable. However,
given our less constructive LT outlook on commodities (esp. coal), we feel
Noble’s cash flow generation from derivative assets LT remains uncertain.
We also note that Noble is targeting gross profits of >US$2bn over the next
3-5 years (2014: US$1.6bn), assuming no new investments.
Stable credit outlook expected in 6-9M; liquidity a key focus – Noble
expects a reversion of its credit rating outlooks to stable from negative
(S&P/Moody’s) over the next 6-9 months on cost saving initiatives and
rationalization of capital. Noble attributed operations continuing smoothly
over the past 6 months (despite recent market concerns) to its strong
liquidity headroom (US$5.2bn including RMI). US$15.2bn of credit facilities
are available (US$4.6bn committed) as of end 2Q, while US$0.5bn of lines
has been pulled by two of Noble’s non-core bankers.
Implications
No changes to our EPS and TP. Maintain Neutral.

Macquarie:

Noble Group
A worthwhile exercise
Event
 Noble’s Investor Day was arguably short on new news, but the company did a
good job of outlining its business for a general audience, we think. From our
side, we welcomed the clear focus on cash generation, which took up a large
part of the Q&A, and is a key catalyst for share price rehabilitation in our view.
Impact
 Full court press: Noble’s morning sell-side analyst meeting was followed by
a long afternoon session open to a general audience. The latter featured ten
executives across corporate and divisional layers, as well as Paul Brough, the
independent director who led the assurance review by Pricewaterhouse
Coopers (PwC). The day’s materials are available online and they are too
extensive to summarize in this writing, but our three key takeaways are:
 Cash generation is a “top priority” and will be driven by cost cutting
and a focus on shorter-term ‘jam today’ type business. The CEO expects
2H15 net debt to be in line with 1H15 (implying positive cash from
operations but neutral cash flow post investing). Our estimates call for a
marginal reduction in net debt – so we’d have liked to hear something
more along those lines, but we like the clear commitment to this area.
 Business as usual. Management said the impact of Iceberg’s attacks
and the negative outlooks on Noble’s debt rating has been limited, as
evidenced by its ability to finance continued volume growth in 1H15. With
the focus on cash generation (which would slow volume growth by
design), the CEO is confident that Noble’s credit outlooks at S&P and
Moody’s can revert to ‘stable’ in the next 6 to 9 months. At the same time,
Noble introduced a gross profit ‘aspiration’ of >US$2b in the next 3-5
years (which was new news), supportive of our US$1.8b forecast for
2017E, though Noble’s track record on longer term guidance is patchy.
 Hidden value on the balance sheet, but not where you’d expect it.
Noble was dismissive of the idea of selling mark-to-market assets to
crystallize their value (as mooted in a recent Reuters article). But slide 52
in today’s presentation is otherwise interesting from a balance sheet
perspective, showing potential US$900m upside to the carrying value of
Noble’s NAES business, based on comparable deals in the space
(S$0.18 per share). This was one other snippet of new news on the day.
Earnings and target price revision
 No change.
Price catalyst
 12-month price target: S$0.75 based on a Price to Book methodology.
 Catalyst: General newsflow. 3Q15 results in November.
Action and recommendation
 Whilst short on new news, we think the Investor Day did a very good job of
showcasing Noble’s operational breadth and deep management bench. Better
cash conversion from 3Q15 would cement the perception gains made today.