Olam International

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(08-02-2013, 05:46 PM)specuvestor Wrote: As discussed previously, Temasek has drawn the line. And assuming there's no fraud, Olam can improve cash flow just by reducing working capital, which seems to be what they are doing.

MW is toast.

But the more interesting observation remains: are the warrants a cost to the company? or a cost to the shareholders since it is now in the money? Heretic but finance 101 may not be the answer.

completely agree, MW doesnt have that much valid points. They seem to be shooting very qualitative factors now, like over very petty small immaterial items.
But the Gabon issue could be one to watch...

MW is not toasted, they will remain an overhang. People are still quite 'scared' whenever they issue a report, like the stock dipped immediately after the report was released. That said, effect seemed to have diminished.

In accounting terms, no the warrants are not a cost to the company/shareholders. The money raised from the debt/warrant will be allocated into bonds payable and warrants (equity), respectively. According to IFRS (and SFRS), the amount will be determined by computing the fair value of the bond (typically by comparing to how existing bonds are trading at), then allocating the residual amount into warrant (equity). So if everything is done properly, there would be an enlarged debt and enlarged equity. Whether the warrant is in the money doesnt matter, coz only the RESIDUAL amount will be allocated to the warrant (i.e. its not fair valued).
With regards to cost for investors, its probably reflected in the ROE due to the enlarged equity base. There will not be any expenses reflected in the P&L statement.
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Olam higher even as Muddy keeps ‘Strong Sell’ rating

SINGAPORE — Muddy Waters, the United States-based short-seller, yesterday kept its “Strong Sell” rating on Olam International, saying it believed the Singaporean commodity supplier’s debt situation had deteriorated, but investors shrugged off those concerns and drove the stock higher.

Muddy Waters’ comment, in a four-page report, came after Olam late on Thursday said net profit rose 19.9 per cent in the fiscal second quarter from the previous corresponding period to S$154.1 million, thanks to growth in its food business.

http://www.todayonline.com/business/olam...ell-rating
“夏则资皮,冬则资纱,旱则资船,水则资车” - 范蠡
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Does anyone know how much the cost of "failed Olam shorts" will be to Muddy Waters? Or where this information can be sourced from? I am intrigued to know how much this could cost Muddy Waters, if (repeat: if) Olam's share price continues to hold up.

As I'm vested in the bonds (alas, those of the perpetual variety) I would like to have a feeling for Olams staying power or stamina.
RBM, Retired Botanic MatSalleh
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(09-02-2013, 03:24 PM)RBM Wrote: Does anyone know how much the cost of "failed Olam shorts" will be to Muddy Waters? Or where this information can be sourced from? I am intrigued to know how much this could cost Muddy Waters, if (repeat: if) Olam's share price continues to hold up.

As I'm vested in the bonds (alas, those of the perpetual variety) I would like to have a feeling for Olams staying power or stamina.

It is trade secret for MW, and will be very useful for Olam management if available.

I doubt you can source it via net.
“夏则资皮,冬则资纱,旱则资船,水则资车” - 范蠡
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I'm just getting interested in Olam's 6.75% bonds maturing 2018. With a 5Y maturity, as long as there's low chance of bankruptcy, it looks delicious.

There is a "implied" backstop in Temasek, but I am telling myself not to assume just because Temasek is a significant shareholder, doesn't mean it won't walk away. Does anyone recall any event in the past in which Temasek walked away from a deteriorating investment and the circumstances?
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U mean like the US Banks? Smile

Nonetheless if you read my previous posts, I would think the risk reward is good. Do your own homework.
Before you speak, listen. Before you write, think. Before you spend, earn. Before you invest, investigate. Before you criticize, wait. Before you pray, forgive. Before you quit, try. Before you retire, save. Before you die, give. –William A. Ward

Think Asset-Business-Structure (ABS)
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Chartered Semiconductor?

Temasek must have lost quite some in it.
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tanjm Wrote:I'm just getting interested in Olam's 6.75% bonds maturing 2018. With a 5Y maturity, as long as there's low chance of bankruptcy, it looks delicious.

There is a "implied" backstop in Temasek, but I am telling myself not to assume just because Temasek is a significant shareholder, doesn't mean it won't walk away. Does anyone recall any event in the past in which Temasek walked away from a deteriorating investment and the circumstances?

Just an input for bonds in general,

Bonds and interest rate are opposites.
There will be a likelihood interest rate rise in future.

Long bonds are more risky in this aspect.
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(05-03-2013, 04:09 PM)orangetea Wrote:
tanjm Wrote:I'm just getting interested in Olam's 6.75% bonds maturing 2018. With a 5Y maturity, as long as there's low chance of bankruptcy, it looks delicious.

There is a "implied" backstop in Temasek, but I am telling myself not to assume just because Temasek is a significant shareholder, doesn't mean it won't walk away. Does anyone recall any event in the past in which Temasek walked away from a deteriorating investment and the circumstances?

Just an input for bonds in general,

Bonds and interest rate are opposites.
There will be a likelihood interest rate rise in future.

Long bonds are more risky in this aspect.

Similarly for bond in general,

If hold to maturity, the return still 6.75% irregardless of current interest rate.
“夏则资皮,冬则资纱,旱则资船,水则资车” - 范蠡
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Does this qualify??

http://news.asiaone.com/News/The%2BBusin...99096.html

http://www.asiaone.com/News/Education/St...39890.html

(SINGAPORE) A Temasek Holdings investment Down Under has gone under - a victim not just of the credit crunch but also dubious management.

Childcare operator ABC Learning Centres said yesterday that it has gone into receivership and appointed voluntary administrators to help clear a mountain of debt.

Reports are emerging that founder Eddy Groves, who was ousted in September, ran ABC's operations in such an 'opaque' way that potential rescuers find the business model hard to decipher.

ABC has also been attacked over related-party transactions. Mr Groves' former brother-in-law had a A$170 million (S$174 million) maintenance and renovation contract for ABC's childcare centres, and the service company lists its principal place of business as Mr Groves' Brisbane apartment.

Reports yesterday said the directors of ABC - the largest childcare centre operator in Australia and second-largest in the US - has appointed Ferrier Hodgson Group voluntary administrator.

Temasek Holdings is ABC's second-largest shareholder. In May last year, the Singapore investment company spent A$401.5 million or A$7.30 a share on a 12 per cent stake. Then early this year - as the stock sank - Temasek increased its stake to 14.7 per cent. This has since been pared to 12.68 per cent, after ABC completed an A$82 million equity placement in June.

Temasek Holdings spokeswoman Myrna Thomas said yesterday: 'We note the serious development announced by ABC Learning Centres. We are monitoring the situation closely and will explore all options available to us.'

Lazard Asset Management is ABC's largest shareholder with 12.93 per cent, followed by Temasek, then Morgan Stanley.

ABC said the company's banking syndicate has appointed advisory firm McGrathNicol as receiver, AP reported.

ABC chairman David Ryan said the company's board and management are 'disappointed' to be in this position but that quality childcare will continue. The company has almost 1,200 childcare centres in Australia and New Zealand, and more than 1,000 in the US, as well as more than two dozen nurseries in Britain.

ABC's debt on June 30, 2007 was A$2.2 billion, up substantially from A$111 million at the end of fiscal 2004.

The company, which gets a large proportion of its revenue from Australian government childcare subsidies, has delayed filing annual results for its latest financial year.

The government is in talks with creditors about ABC's future and has set up a task force to consider contingency plans to protect families that use the childcare service.

Potential buyers have been put off by the company's opaque management, after going through its books.

The Australian Financial Review newspaper said on Wednesday that instead of developing its own centres, ABC paid a company called 123 Global, run by former ABC executive Don Jones, to buy land, build centres and run them until occupancy rates were up, before selling them at a multiple of earnings.

But ABC could claw back liquidated damages if occupancy rates fell short, booking these as profits. In 2006, Mr Jones was running 123 Careers, which outsourced ABC Learning Centre staff. He paid a fee to ABC for a 10-year contract, which ABC front-loaded with payments over three years.

ABC is also said to have bought a toy distributor for A$5 million, loaded it with contracts to supply ABC Learning Centres, and then sold it for A$46 million.

Trading in ABC's shares has been suspended since Aug 21 as the company worked to resolve its debts. The shares last traded at 54 Australian cents.
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