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29-11-2012, 11:23 AM
(29-11-2012, 11:13 AM)mobo Wrote: The one thing this whole drama thought me is that many of the so call fundamental analyst know much less than they think they know.
Forget about who is actually more correct, just read through the wealth of information from Muddy & Olam. How many of the so call Olam experts/analyst actually thought of 1/4 of the stuff that is mentioned in both reports before that?
I use to think all this analyst know a lot with their fancy PDF and nicely done reports. Then I got to know 2 ex-analyst (1 from a foreign bank, the other a local brokerage) now working in my company. Being interested in investing, I tried to pick their brains and realise they don't know much at all. From what I gather their jobs seem to be attending IR roadshows, result concalls, organized site visits and plucking in numbers to some standard template in their company and out pops a report.
I venture to say that a lot of brothers here know more than them and I learn much more here than from those 2 and the various reports my broker send me. These guys talk a good show with polished language and finance jargon, but strip that out the understanding of business dynamics is mushy at best.
It's the way of the finance industry.
One of the important lessons for me is to stick to easy-to-understand businesses. You don't get special recognition if you successfully long/short Olam (unless in MW case!) because the same returns can be done with a relatively lesser effort on another simpler company.
