Penguin International

[boomaroo]

Hi Boomaroo,

Many thanks for your analysis, very well written. Will be very interesting to see the financials that are due on what I think is a few weeks or so, to see if the strong business momentum continues.

Hi Jh_Sw,

The analysis is not mine but was done by Maybank Kim Eng. I thought to share it in this forum. The 4Q2019 results should be released in around 2 -3 weeks time. From the various analysis, it should still be a strong business momentum! (However the recent weakness in market seems to have dragged down the share price by a bit lately  )

Share price is Oil price dependent lah. back to lows if oil price hit 30 or 40 dollars again.

Share price is less dependent on oil price as compared to say 5 years ago. It is evident that the shipyard has diversified into the design and build of other Vessel types; Windfarm Support Vessls, Passenger Ferries, Security Vessels. I guess the Management understands very well that they cannot depend on just Offshore Crewboats alone to survive.

[BlueKelah]

Hi Boomaroo,

Many thanks for your analysis, very well written. Will be very interesting to see the financials that are due on what I think is a few weeks or so, to see if the strong business momentum continues.

Hi Jh_Sw,

The analysis is not mine but was done by Maybank Kim Eng. I thought to share it in this forum. The 4Q2019 results should be released in around 2 -3 weeks time. From the various analysis, it should still be a strong business momentum! (However the recent weakness in market seems to have dragged down the share price by a bit lately  )

Share price is Oil price dependent lah. back to lows if oil price hit 30 or 40 dollars again.

Share price is less dependent on oil price as compared to say 5 years ago. It is evident that the shipyard has diversified into the design and build of other Vessel types; Windfarm Support Vessls, Passenger Ferries, Security Vessels. I guess the Management understands very well that they cannot depend on just Offshore Crewboats alone to survive.

oh wait oil price is down almost 20% since start of the year and so is Penguin share price. Less dependent my foot!

[boomaroo]

Hi Boomaroo,

Many thanks for your analysis, very well written. Will be very interesting to see the financials that are due on what I think is a few weeks or so, to see if the strong business momentum continues.

Hi Jh_Sw,

The analysis is not mine but was done by Maybank Kim Eng. I thought to share it in this forum. The 4Q2019 results should be released in around 2 -3 weeks time. From the various analysis, it should still be a strong business momentum! (However the recent weakness in market seems to have dragged down the share price by a bit lately  )

Share price is Oil price dependent lah. back to lows if oil price hit 30 or 40 dollars again.

Share price is less dependent on oil price as compared to say 5 years ago. It is evident that the shipyard has diversified into the design and build of other Vessel types; Windfarm Support Vessls, Passenger Ferries, Security Vessels. I guess the Management understands very well that they cannot depend on just Offshore Crewboats alone to survive.

oh wait oil price is down almost 20% since start of the year and so is Penguin share price. Less dependent my foot!

ic. 

Then you should stop reading this thread and waste your time. Since the share price is so dependent on oil price. Nothing to analyse or discuss then. 

For you trading should be easy - Just buy when oil price goes up and sell when oil price drops! 

[Squirrel]

I would like to chime in for this.

Firstly, I would like to thank everyone for their interest in the company. It helps to reveal more information and poll opinions in an informal way that benefits my own view greatly, and hopefully yours too.

Next, I hope nobody gets too worked up. BlueKelah contributes vastly across topics and not just this. Boomaroo’s first post is also an informative one showing propensity to share. Up till now it’s still civil but it’s getting a little bit hot in the thread.

Lastly, regarding oil price. I believe the oil price impacts Penguin’s performance in direct and indirect ways. For the shipbuilding sector, the Nigerian security boats are a function of piracy activity and offshore oil activity. The bigger concern imho is the chartering segment. I largely agree with an article quoted before that there is a Goldilocks zone whereby conditions are most suited for their chartering business to swell. And that is when oil price is not too high and not too low. Not too high so that the oil majors would save on costs and do more chopper swaps to cut down costs. Not too low so that offshore oil activity doesn’t stop. In my humble opinion, the current level is still within the zone for the past 4-5 years when the chartering started to thrive.

I guess at this point in time if you went in at the right time, you might be sitting on 100% gains. So it’s up to individuals what they want to do with it. I tend to want to let gains run. I believe one super outlier is what is needed to have above average returns. Marco Polo Marine, Offshore Wind business with PSA, aging global ferries (although in this case it’s for larger size ones. Hopefully that’s the same for smaller ones too), media perception of safety of choppers (cue Leicester City and RIP Kobe Bryant...) are all exciting areas to look for.

[dydx]

This old article should give everyone a good idea how Penguin has since 2015 built a nicely profitable crew boat chartering business in Malaysia to the present scale of 6 Flex-42X's flying the 'Alkahfi' name (from their Malaysian agent Alkahfi Lestari Oil & Gas Sdn Bhd)..
https://alkahfilog.com.my/pg26-31.pdf

[Squirrel]

This old article should give everyone a good idea how Penguin has since 2015 built a nicely profitable crew boat chartering business in Malaysia to the present scale of 6 Flex-42X's flying the 'Alkahfi' name (from their Malaysian agent Alkahfi Lestari Oil & Gas Sdn Bhd)..
https://alkahfilog.com.my/pg26-31.pdf

Thanks for the link. This is very informative.

Another article lately with MOU signed for developing hybrid vessels. A step towards the future I suppose.

https://maritime-executive.com/corporate...ine-launch

[GenS70]

on the subject of oil price effect on Penguin, I get this sense that there is a perspective that not too bullish oil price is positive for Penguin, as there is better chance that there will be more swapping for helicopter transport to fast crewboat by oil majors and Penguin build executive class Flex-42X with luxurious business class seating on a 2 by 2 seats configuration is prime to capture this business.

see below on an award won by Penguin's Alkahfi Chief, this is the first time an aluminium boat beat steel vessels to win this coveted prize, it shd help Penguin to further entrench its leadership in this segment
https://www.bmt.org/news/2020/bmt-design...ear-award/

[dydx]

Interesting article dated 19Sep19 on Nigerian company Homeland Integrated Offshore Services Limited (HIOSL) placing its first order for several Penguin's Flex Fighter security/crew boats for delivery in Dec2019...
http://www.clearlinecommunications.co.uk...shipyards/

[dydx]

Interesting article dated 19Sep19 on Nigerian company Homeland Integrated Offshore Services Limited (HIOSL) placing its first order for several Penguin's Flex Fighter security/crew boats for delivery in Dec2019...
http://www.clearlinecommunications.co.uk...shipyards/

Another article which has more info on the deal and HIOSL...
https://www.defenceweb.co.za/featured/ni...singapore/

2 other Negerian companies which own/operate Penguin's Flex Fighter crew boats...
http://www.norfinoffshore.com/en/own-vessels [also manages similar vessels owned by others]
http://www.cavelzmarine.com/our-fleet/

An article which provides background info on piracy-related attacks against shipping in Negeria's waters (Gulf of Guinea) and the emergence of private maritime security operators sanctioned by the Nigerian government...
https://www.maritime-executive.com/edito...ea-in-2016

[Squirrel]

Since everyone is waiting for the results, let me come in here and hazard some guesses.

Q4 Financials Guesstimate
Revenue: $41.5m (Full year $138.6m)
Net Profit: $4.8m (Full year $18.8m)

Dividend: $0.0175 per share, 2.5% yield roughly at $0.71.

Perhaps a special dividend to reward shareholders?