Croesus Retail Trust

[felixleong]

Investors have overwhelmingly backed the listing of Croesus Retail Trust, with the total placement tranche and public offer 22.4x subscribed.

Good luck to all who had pressed, HUAT aH~!!! $$$$$$$$$$$$$

[MINX]

Investors have overwhelmingly backed the listing of Croesus Retail Trust, with the total placement tranche and public offer 22.4x subscribed.

Good luck to all who had pressed, HUAT aH~!!! $$$$$$$$$$$$$

I thought many people not interested in this one

[BlueKelah]

As calculated, IPO price is still slightly above 90cent value. Given Japan easing measures, this bull will probably run for a couple years at least.

As clearly demonstrated by US easing, all the extra monies will just flow into stocks to create asset bubbles and devalue the currency.

Can't help economy if you don't plug the leaking holes like welfare/healthcare and biggest one of all debt repayment

Will buy in if there is any dip after IPO

[felixleong]

now is the government passing stacks and stacks of casino chips to banks
don't gamble also cannot, lol

hot money hot money~

[swakoo]

Unlike reits, business trusts have had a very dismal track record. I think all have underperformed the STI, with some very badly so. IIRC most are also under IPO. Wonder if this yield hungry environment will make a difference for CRT.

Some of the present incumbents below.
Notice the debut is initially fairly OK but over time cracks appear...

[Image: z?s=%5eSTI&t=5y&q=l&l=off&z=l&c=A7RU.SI,...&region=US]

[shanrui_91]

I think investor central has dug out even more questions about this trust.

According topage 90 of the prospectus, CRT's first accounting period will be from May 7, 2012 to June 30, 2014.

But while preparing the profit projection for FY2014, the Trust has assumed the listing date (ie, the first business day of its FY2014) to be July 1, 2013 and that prior to listing date, the Trust and its subsidiaries are inactive.
In short, its FY2014 profit projection is based on 12 months beginning July 1, 2013.

In reality, however, CRT will be listing on Friday, May 10, 2013 – 52 days ahead of the start of the new financial year.
That means the Trust will either have almost two months more to meet its profit forecast, or the FY2014 figures, when they are reported, will "surprise" substantially on the upside.

But it gets more complicated. The Trust is extending its FY2014 accounting period from May 7, 2012 to June 30, 2014.
In other words, the FY2014 financial year will not be 365 days, or even 365 + 52 days, as outlined above.

In effect, this is not even 8% annual yield. It is 8% yield based on 1.15 years, which equates to 7%.

But, according to page 106 of the prospectus, the combined Gross Revenue of all four properties of the Trust was just JPY4.28 bln in FY2012.Further, the combined Gross Revenue of the portfolio in the first six months of FY2013, ended December 31, 2012, was JPY2.19 bln.
Annualising the half-year revenue, we can fairly estimate FY2013 Gross Revenue to be about JPY4.38 bln – a growth of 2.3% over FY2012.

Now, here's the thing.

As you can see from the table above, the Trust is forecasting Gross Revenue of JPY5.05 bln for FY2014.
That would be growth of 15.3% over the annualised half-year revenue figure.
Such an estimate is rather aggressive when compared to 3.6% Gross Revenue growth in FY2012.

One can only assume that the big jump in Gross Revenue is due to the very long FY2014, which lumps together more than two years of earnings.
But if this is the case, the FY2014 numbers are actually disappointing, because they constitute more than two years of earnings.

3 of the leases are fixed master lease and with high occupancy rate, how is this forecasted revenue being achieved? I found in the prospectus that MAS has exempted CRT from publishing historical pro forma statement so long as they publish some info like historical revenue. Will be interesting if the projected revenue is not achieved.

Let's see the extent of dividend craze in the market tomorrow.

[AlphaQuant]

and on the day of debut, usdjpy climbs >100

[Gallen]

But, according to page 106 of the prospectus, the combined Gross Revenue of all four properties of the Trust was just JPY4.28 bln in FY2012.Further, the combined Gross Revenue of the portfolio in the first six months of FY2013, ended December 31, 2012, was JPY2.19 bln.
Annualising the half-year revenue, we can fairly estimate FY2013 Gross Revenue to be about JPY4.38 bln – a growth of 2.3% over FY2012.

Now, here's the thing.

As you can see from the table above, the Trust is forecasting Gross Revenue of JPY5.05 bln for FY2014.
That would be growth of 15.3% over the annualised half-year revenue figure.
Such an estimate is rather aggressive when compared to 3.6% Gross Revenue growth in FY2012.

One can only assume that the big jump in Gross Revenue is due to the very long FY2014, which lumps together more than two years of earnings.
But if this is the case, the FY2014 numbers are actually disappointing, because they constitute more than two years of earnings.

3 of the leases are fixed master lease and with high occupancy rate, how is this forecasted revenue being achieved? I found in the prospectus that MAS has exempted CRT from publishing historical pro forma statement so long as they publish some info like historical revenue. Will be interesting if the projected revenue is not achieved.

Let's see the extent of dividend craze in the market tomorrow.

Probably because of this (source: UOBKH):
Potential positive rental reversions at Mallage Shobu.

CRT is anticipated to realise significant positive rental reversion from Mallage Shobu, which is the largest property at 40% of 2014 NPI, as the current leases are substantially below current market rentals because the property commenced operations during the global financial crisis in 2008.

Some 62% of the fixed term leases, comprising 26% of the portfolio gross rental, will be expiring in Nov 14. CRT has conservatively forecast that most of the leases for Mallage Shobu will be renewed at the current
rental rates, although the manager expects to negotiate more favourable lease terms.

[MINX]

But, according to page 106 of the prospectus, the combined Gross Revenue of all four properties of the Trust was just JPY4.28 bln in FY2012.Further, the combined Gross Revenue of the portfolio in the first six months of FY2013, ended December 31, 2012, was JPY2.19 bln.
Annualising the half-year revenue, we can fairly estimate FY2013 Gross Revenue to be about JPY4.38 bln – a growth of 2.3% over FY2012.

Now, here's the thing.

As you can see from the table above, the Trust is forecasting Gross Revenue of JPY5.05 bln for FY2014.
That would be growth of 15.3% over the annualised half-year revenue figure.
Such an estimate is rather aggressive when compared to 3.6% Gross Revenue growth in FY2012.

One can only assume that the big jump in Gross Revenue is due to the very long FY2014, which lumps together more than two years of earnings.
But if this is the case, the FY2014 numbers are actually disappointing, because they constitute more than two years of earnings.

3 of the leases are fixed master lease and with high occupancy rate, how is this forecasted revenue being achieved? I found in the prospectus that MAS has exempted CRT from publishing historical pro forma statement so long as they publish some info like historical revenue. Will be interesting if the projected revenue is not achieved.

Let's see the extent of dividend craze in the market tomorrow.

Probably because of this (source: UOBKH):
Potential positive rental reversions at Mallage Shobu.

CRT is anticipated to realise significant positive rental reversion from Mallage Shobu, which is the largest property at 40% of 2014 NPI, as the current leases are substantially below current market rentals because the property commenced operations during the global financial crisis in 2008.

Some 62% of the fixed term leases, comprising 26% of the portfolio gross rental, will be expiring in Nov 14. CRT has conservatively forecast that most of the leases for Mallage Shobu will be renewed at the current
rental rates, although the manager expects to negotiate more favourable lease terms.

UOB Kayhian forecast 26% to 33% share price upside for CRT assuming yield compressed to 6% to 6.3%. CRT paying 8% yield for FY 14 & 8.1% for FY15.

[kbl]

Good evening Gallen san

All the Best to All your Investments!

not vested