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07-11-2010, 09:16 AM
I've seen Pahlawan on SI. I just didn't expect ST to report on him! Gosh....
Nov 7, 2010
'That IPO? It's chicken rice,' says Pahlawan
Online stock 'guru' wins admirers with his quirky IPO ratings and ability to pick winners
By Jonathan Kwok
Share investors are familiar with the usual 'buy', 'hold' and 'sell' calls that analysts often make on stocks.
But one folk analyst has been making waves online with his stock picks, using a ratings system more suited to a restaurant than the trading floor.
The mysterious ShareInvestor.com forum user - known only by his online moniker 'Pahlawan' - has been using rankings like 'chicken rice', 'bird's nest' and 'shark's fin' to rate initial public offerings (IPOs).
While his actual identity remains unknown, he has quite a following on the popular online forum.
ShareInvestor users have dubbed him a 'prophet', 'the master' and the 'IPO King', based on his ability to pick out winners from new share offerings.
Pahlawan has been a member of the ShareInvestor forum since 2004, and has made over 1,600 forum postings.
Not only does he give his take on IPOs, he also gives tips on listed counters. Many forum users say they seek his views before an upcoming IPO, and his cryptic pronouncements are always received with thanks.
One user, Wkl, said that when Pahlawan makes a pronouncement, 'I don't want to ask Pahlawan why, I just follow him.'
Another user, Syong0280, posted: 'I have been a follower of Mr Pahlawan for a number of years. Like all prophets, he is a man of few words... He never provides any definition. As a prophet, he expects his believer to do some thinking.'
But going by the responses on the forum, it appears that there is a consensus on how to interpret his ratings.
IPOs that are rated 'bird's nest' are clearly the best, followed by those rated 'shark's fin'.
Lower in the pecking order are hawker fare like 'chicken rice' and 'char siew pau' (pork bun).
The two recent government-linked mega IPOs - Global Logistic Properties and Mapletree Industrial Trust - were both ranked 'bird's nest' by Palawan. So was oil and gas services firm Kreuz Holdings, another market newcomer.
Mr Christopher Lee, chief executive of ShareInvestor, said such folk gurus add vibrancy to the share investing community.
'We have quite a number of people in our ShareInvestor community who are very established, who share their experience in various aspects of stock analysis.'
Mr Eric Tan, a retail investor and ShareInvestor member, said: 'I've seen Pahlawan's postings. He's got quite a following there.
'There were a lot more colourful characters (on the forums) before the 2007 stock market crash, but a lot of them have since left.'
Despite his popularity, Pahlawan is not always right.
While the three stocks listed recently that were given the highest 'bird's nest' ranking are trading well above their IPO prices, one of those ranked a strong 'shark's fin' has done less well.
XinRen Aluminum is five cents below its 55-cent IPO price. On Oct28, when XinRen lost over 15per cent to end below its IPO price, Pahlawan said he was 'in shock', 'lost and confused', and 'never expected such a tumble'.
Most retail investors The Sunday Times spoke to said that while such postings were interesting, they would be sceptical of folk gurus like Pahlawan.
'I wouldn't really trust their advice,' said Mr Tan, the investor. 'I go on forums only to get a feel of the general market sentiment towards the IPOs. I don't take the advice (of these gurus) at face value.'
Retail investor William Koh said: 'It's hard to gauge the expertise of these people. You don't know their backgrounds. He's expressing his personal opinion, and I wouldn't easily trust him.'
But the 53-year-old quipped: 'In my experience, some of the research reports by some of the big broking houses have also proved unreliable, so I trust my own analysis more.'
jonkwok@sph.com.sg
Nov 7, 2010
'That IPO? It's chicken rice,' says Pahlawan
Online stock 'guru' wins admirers with his quirky IPO ratings and ability to pick winners
By Jonathan Kwok
Share investors are familiar with the usual 'buy', 'hold' and 'sell' calls that analysts often make on stocks.
But one folk analyst has been making waves online with his stock picks, using a ratings system more suited to a restaurant than the trading floor.
The mysterious ShareInvestor.com forum user - known only by his online moniker 'Pahlawan' - has been using rankings like 'chicken rice', 'bird's nest' and 'shark's fin' to rate initial public offerings (IPOs).
While his actual identity remains unknown, he has quite a following on the popular online forum.
ShareInvestor users have dubbed him a 'prophet', 'the master' and the 'IPO King', based on his ability to pick out winners from new share offerings.
Pahlawan has been a member of the ShareInvestor forum since 2004, and has made over 1,600 forum postings.
Not only does he give his take on IPOs, he also gives tips on listed counters. Many forum users say they seek his views before an upcoming IPO, and his cryptic pronouncements are always received with thanks.
One user, Wkl, said that when Pahlawan makes a pronouncement, 'I don't want to ask Pahlawan why, I just follow him.'
Another user, Syong0280, posted: 'I have been a follower of Mr Pahlawan for a number of years. Like all prophets, he is a man of few words... He never provides any definition. As a prophet, he expects his believer to do some thinking.'
But going by the responses on the forum, it appears that there is a consensus on how to interpret his ratings.
IPOs that are rated 'bird's nest' are clearly the best, followed by those rated 'shark's fin'.
Lower in the pecking order are hawker fare like 'chicken rice' and 'char siew pau' (pork bun).
The two recent government-linked mega IPOs - Global Logistic Properties and Mapletree Industrial Trust - were both ranked 'bird's nest' by Palawan. So was oil and gas services firm Kreuz Holdings, another market newcomer.
Mr Christopher Lee, chief executive of ShareInvestor, said such folk gurus add vibrancy to the share investing community.
'We have quite a number of people in our ShareInvestor community who are very established, who share their experience in various aspects of stock analysis.'
Mr Eric Tan, a retail investor and ShareInvestor member, said: 'I've seen Pahlawan's postings. He's got quite a following there.
'There were a lot more colourful characters (on the forums) before the 2007 stock market crash, but a lot of them have since left.'
Despite his popularity, Pahlawan is not always right.
While the three stocks listed recently that were given the highest 'bird's nest' ranking are trading well above their IPO prices, one of those ranked a strong 'shark's fin' has done less well.
XinRen Aluminum is five cents below its 55-cent IPO price. On Oct28, when XinRen lost over 15per cent to end below its IPO price, Pahlawan said he was 'in shock', 'lost and confused', and 'never expected such a tumble'.
Most retail investors The Sunday Times spoke to said that while such postings were interesting, they would be sceptical of folk gurus like Pahlawan.
'I wouldn't really trust their advice,' said Mr Tan, the investor. 'I go on forums only to get a feel of the general market sentiment towards the IPOs. I don't take the advice (of these gurus) at face value.'
Retail investor William Koh said: 'It's hard to gauge the expertise of these people. You don't know their backgrounds. He's expressing his personal opinion, and I wouldn't easily trust him.'
But the 53-year-old quipped: 'In my experience, some of the research reports by some of the big broking houses have also proved unreliable, so I trust my own analysis more.'
jonkwok@sph.com.sg
My Value Investing Blog: http://sgmusicwhiz.blogspot.com/
