Mermaid Maritime Plc

[crabcrab]

I appreciate yr enthusiastic one-man show for the company but would like to provide some prospective to the company's share price performance since its listing.

While the company has certainly moved in line with the general market over the last 9-12 months, IPO investors will be deep out of the money. The company had its IPO on 16 Oct 2007 at $1.56. The 9-for-20 rights issue at 64c was carried out in 2009 (not that recent). I estimate IPO investors who subscribed to the right issue will still be 60% out of money.

Thank you for being the first guest of this thread.

Company share price at this level may be considered underpriced given that shares price of this Company has underperformed than the general market trend and the better prospect in the industry. Any leg for a run up above $0.405 should see the share price crossing above $0.435.... Good Luck

[crabcrab]

MERMAID ($0.415) - She is finally waking up from her slumberland... Awaiting more graceful swims in the days to come.....

[crabcrab]

Coming soon next week

[crabcrab]

Mermaid Maritime - On the path of redemption
Target S$0.51 (Long Term: Out Perform)

Source http://cimbresearchsgx.blogspot.sg/2013/...ption.html

Supported by stronger chartering rates and higher contributions from its Middle Eastern Subtech subsidiary, Mermaid delivered a good quarter, which suggested that it is firmly on the path of redemption. 3Q13 core EPS reversed 1H13 losses, bringing 9M13 to 10% of our FY13 number, which is slightly above our expectation. We expect 4Q to be similar, enabling Mermaid to meet our target. We raise FY13 core EPS by 5% for higher revenue but trim FY14-15 EPS by 3-4% as we remove MTR-1’s contributions. Maintain Outperform and target price, still at 0.8x CY13 P/BV (5-year mean). Catalysts could come from stronger subsea results, contracts and clarity on its tender rig investments.

3Q13 core EPS reversed 1H13 losses, bringing 9M13 to 10% of our FY13 number, which is slightly above our expectation. We expect 4Q to be similar, enabling Mermaid to meet our target. We raise FY13 core EPS by 5% for higher revenue but trim FY14-15 EPS by 3-4% as we remove MTR-1's contributions. Maintain Outperform and target price, still at 0.8x CY13 P/BV (5-year mean). Catalysts could come from stronger subsea results, contracts and clarity on its tender rig investments.

Pleasing subsea margins
Excluding FX translation loss of THB227m (Mermaid's exposure to US$ loans and weakening THB), core earnings grew 41% yoy to THB239m. Positives from the results were higher-than-expected turnover and pleasing subsea margins. Revenue grew 38% yoy to THB2.4bn on the back of subsea strength. Subsea made up 94% of the group's revenue. Higher charter rates more than offset the drop in utilisation to 73.9% vs. 78.3% in 3Q12. Charter rates grew 28% yoy to US$86,943 vs. US$67,797m in 3Q12. Additionally, 9M13 turnover from its Subtech subsidiary grew 1.7x yoy. Subsea achieved a healthy gross margin of 25%.

Drilling losses a one-off
Drilling incurred a gross loss of THB36m due to start-up costs of MTR-2. MTR-2 has completed its compulsory special periodic survey and commenced its 2-year drilling contract in Indonesia in late-May. MTR-1 is currently working as an accommodation barge in Indonesia till Jul 2013. It has not been awarded an extension. As such, we erase its contributions.

Turnaround not priced in
We believe that the market has yet to price in its strong turnaround. At 0.5x CY13 P/BV, the stock is trading at 0.5 s.d below its 5-year mean. This is despite a projected improvement of ROE to ~7% for 2014 vs. COE of ~9%.

Source: CIMB Daybreak - 16 August 2013, Full PDF Report

[crabcrab]

Mermaid ($0.375) - Seems that Mermaid is attempting another breakout from near term resistance of $0.375. A bullish head & shoulder formation is in the making with the company currently forming the right shoulder. Supported by high volume with noticeably foreign fund entry. With several multi hundreds-millions contracts on hand and position in an extremely buoyant market in the subsea sector, possibility of a good breakout from the current level is extremely high for Mermaid within this week. Stay cue and look up for next week direction. Good luck (Caveat emptor, Crabcrab vested..).

[crabcrab]

Mermaid ($0.375) - Seems that Mermaid is attempting another breakout from near term resistance of $0.375. A bullish head & shoulder formation is in the making with the company currently forming the right shoulder. Supported by high volume with noticeably foreign fund entry. With several multi hundreds-millions contracts on hand and position in an extremely buoyant market in the subsea sector, possibility of a good breakout from the current level is extremely high for Mermaid within this week. Stay cue and look up for next week direction. Good luck (Caveat emptor, Crabcrab vested..).

Mermaid ($0.40) - Today's breakout from a head and shoulder formation set a bullish direction for Mermaid. Supported by increased volume and closing at $0.40, this stock is set to be very interesting in the coming weeks and even months. Immediate resistance is $0.405 the $0.425 and $0.44... Thereafter, $0.495.....Likely, another Ezion in the making.... Good luck (Caveat Emptor).

[Drizzt]

Mermaid ($0.375) - Seems that Mermaid is attempting another breakout from near term resistance of $0.375. A bullish head & shoulder formation is in the making with the company currently forming the right shoulder. Supported by high volume with noticeably foreign fund entry. With several multi hundreds-millions contracts on hand and position in an extremely buoyant market in the subsea sector, possibility of a good breakout from the current level is extremely high for Mermaid within this week. Stay cue and look up for next week direction. Good luck (Caveat emptor, Crabcrab vested..).

Mermaid ($0.40) - Today's breakout from a head and shoulder formation set a bullish direction for Mermaid. Supported by increased volume and closing at $0.40, this stock is set to be very interesting in the coming weeks and even months. Immediate resistance is $0.405 the $0.425 and $0.44... Thereafter, $0.495.....Likely, another Ezion in the making.... Good luck (Caveat Emptor).

what has this got to do with fundamentals?

[crabcrab]

Mermaid ($0.375) - Seems that Mermaid is attempting another breakout from near term resistance of $0.375. A bullish head & shoulder formation is in the making with the company currently forming the right shoulder. Supported by high volume with noticeably foreign fund entry. With several multi hundreds-millions contracts on hand and position in an extremely buoyant market in the subsea sector, possibility of a good breakout from the current level is extremely high for Mermaid within this week. Stay cue and look up for next week direction. Good luck (Caveat emptor, Crabcrab vested..).

Mermaid ($0.40) - Today's breakout from a head and shoulder formation set a bullish direction for Mermaid. Supported by increased volume and closing at $0.40, this stock is set to be very interesting in the coming weeks and even months. Immediate resistance is $0.405 the $0.425 and $0.44... Thereafter, $0.495.....Likely, another Ezion in the making.... Good luck (Caveat Emptor).

what has this got to do with fundamentals?

A technical pattern derives from the fundamentals as well as internal and external economical environment aspects may result in one's ability to establish deep dive understanding of a stock's fundamentals + micro and macro environment + psychological aspects of human factors which cause a prediction of a formation pattern in the near future possible.....

[lonewolf]

A technical pattern derives from the fundamentals as well as internal and external economical environment aspects may result in one's ability to establish deep dive understanding of a stock's fundamentals + micro and macro environment + psychological aspects of human factors which cause a prediction of a formation pattern in the near future possible.....

What a mouthful of *insert yr favourite national dish here*!!

That sounds a little like a favourite rojak methodology known as FATA. It goes something like this. We analyse the stock fundamental using FA and then applies TA methodology to time stock purchase.

But I think you may have just take the concept a little bit further by coming up with the concept of TAFA!

I think anyone with even a very very basic of TA will know that fundamentals of the company play no part in TA.

[crabcrab]

A technical pattern derives from the fundamentals as well as internal and external economical environment aspects may result in one's ability to establish deep dive understanding of a stock's fundamentals + micro and macro environment + psychological aspects of human factors which cause a prediction of a formation pattern in the near future possible.....

What a mouthful of *insert yr favourite national dish here*!!

That sounds a little like a favourite rojak methodology known as FATA. It goes something like this. We analyse the stock fundamental using FA and then applies TA methodology to time stock purchase.

But I think you may have just take the concept a little bit further by coming up with the concept of TAFA!

I think anyone with even a very very basic of TA will know that fundamentals of the company play no part in TA.

...... Appreciate your participation in this thread, and Lonewolf has been rebutting my comments since I commented about CK Tang when it was around $0.45 - $0.60 a few years back....and true enuff, C K Tang finally get privatisation... and the last offered price to post privatisation C K Tang shareholders was $2.00, close to my valuation in my comment in the then channelnesasia.... Maybe you didn't bought it, lonewolf?

Well, in contrary, try to time the market but there isn't any timing in stock purchase... Thanks to the technical chart indicators that shows bullish signals, many got burnt in pennies, many got burnt in sagas of Blumont, Asiasons and Liongold.... They follow TA, forgetting the so called FA... The so called 'buy or sell signals' in technical chart often mitigates fundamental perspectives, when suddenly a trigger cause a once bullish chart indicators to freefall like crazy and caught many by surprise.... We like volatility when we trade stocks, often doesn't matter a valuation is low or high.... We invest with a mindful perspective when it comes to value investing.. It is not about TAFA or FATA, but making real money and protecting your accumulated wealth is the fundamental to investment. Everybody will be rich if one can time the market. It is only the few that can understand the concepts will then make it through the end.... I am sure your know who they are.......?? Gd Luck