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(31-07-2012, 10:24 AM)Musicwhiz Wrote: (31-07-2012, 10:04 AM)etan Wrote: Like most people here, I am also waiting for the BIG CRASH (if there is any to come).
If I could be a little frank - my view is too many people wait for the big CRASH, and this usually only occurs once in many years, so in the meantime if you wait with cash on the sidelines you'll see it get eroded by inflation, and you'd also miss out on other investment opportunities.
My suggestion would be to look for reasonable valuations in excellent companies, and invest the money slowly + steadily. In that way, you can get dividends and reinvest along the way, all the while beating inflation.
Call it the slow/steady way to wealth. Rome was not built in a day. 
It may be true that if you look long and hard enough, you can still "discover" some "under-value" stocks missed by the markets, at anytime of the day.
But who am i to compete with the market?
It is almost impossible for me a lay-man?
i have to think of some other unorthodox ways.
My 2 cents. 
WB:-
1) Rule # 1, do not lose money.
2) Rule # 2, refer to # 1.
3) Not until you can manage your emotions, you can manage your money.
Truism of Investments.
A) Buying a security is buying RISK not Return
B) You can control RISK (to a certain level, hopefully only.) But definitely not the outcome of the Return.
NB:-
My signature is meant for psychoing myself. No offence to anyone. i am trying not to lose money unnecessary anymore.
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Actually to some people like myself, whats impt is the winning process,
money is just a bypass product.
There are nothing wrong keeping cash even when inflation is sky high,
whats wrong is not investing when e opportunity comes...
The thing about karma, It always comes around and bite you when you least expected.
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31-07-2012, 11:02 AM
(This post was last modified: 31-07-2012, 11:04 AM by etan.)
(31-07-2012, 10:24 AM)Musicwhiz Wrote: (31-07-2012, 10:04 AM)etan Wrote: Like most people here, I am also waiting for the BIG CRASH (if there is any to come).
If I could be a little frank - my view is too many people wait for the big CRASH, and this usually only occurs once in many years, so in the meantime if you wait with cash on the sidelines you'll see it get eroded by inflation, and you'd also miss out on other investment opportunities.
My suggestion would be to look for reasonable valuations in excellent companies, and invest the money slowly + steadily. In that way, you can get dividends and reinvest along the way, all the while beating inflation.
Call it the slow/steady way to wealth. Rome was not built in a day.
Somehow until today, I still have this fear of losing too much of my capital in the stock market (blame the CLOB era). So most probably I will not increase my existing portfolio unless the index goes down say some 30% or so. I always remember this saying: When the tide comes in all the ships will float, but when the tide goes down, all the ships will sink, or something to this tune.
I guess you have more faith in the stock market probably becos your investment journey was more smooth sailing.
I am also waiting for my son to reach 35 so that he can buy a HDB flat.
By then, we may move over to live in the flat, and rent out our condo for some passive income. But I hope he will be married by then. Will change plan when necessary.
Given a choice, I would rather sink $500k into a flat than putting it in stocks.
I give a mental count: If the flat can be rented out for 2.5K pm x 40yrs = 1 mil. Enough for simple standard of living. This is for illustration only.
Well, that's my thinking as of now, may change plan subject to circumstances.
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A lot of people don't really realise what they doing they just talk only, if big crash comes a lot will just wait at the sidelines and use the excuse "hoping it will go lower" the real reason is the fear affects them too.
If you invest in a bear market or one that is in the long process consolidation the market is moving sideways yes stocks are cheap but the market is not going anywhere could be doing this for years 3-5 years if you look at charts. For your stocks to rise you need a speculative market you need speculators, you need to uncle and aunties to invest. You could find the biggest gem in a market crash but if everybody is scared to invest your gem is just another piece of rock and you money will be is still stuck for a few years.
In 2000 I remember GCT was then still the PM he was talking about a soft landing in the US. Then 9-11 happened how many people went into the market? followed by a long long correction until mid of 2007.
If you do not have a job and trading for yourself either day trader or dividend investor where income is derived from investing in the market there is very few who can wait for a market to first crash then wait again for 7 years for the market to turn because they will be eating into their seed money or reserves.
Good luck waiting for the market to crash
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Inflation should not be a reason to invest as you might lose more than what you would lose out to inflation. Also what you lose out to inflation can be recouped if you invest in the right opportunity even after a couple of years.
Some of my views:
- Having good cash flow is important to investing.
- Having confidence is important to go through the ups and downs.
- Having a goal and direction is important for your portfolio and individual stock so you know
what to do when the situation arrives .
- Creating a unique method that works for you is important as it lets you be consistent and disciplined.
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31-07-2012, 12:38 PM
(This post was last modified: 31-07-2012, 12:39 PM by Jared Seah.)
sgd,
You have a point!
March 2009 wasn't that long ago... Only 3.5 years.
If I didn't bet the farm during March 2009, what makes me think I can repeat it again during the next crash?
I doing navel gazing now 
Just google singapore man of leisure
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You probably still had a job then from 2001 to 2007 when the market was moving sideways that's why I say if you don't have job or alternative sources of income there is no way you or anyone can wait for the market to first crash then wait some more for it to turn a few years later you could be waiting nearly 10 years.
I do not advocate the folly of waiting for such thing, the best time to invest is now when the market is hot, there's hot money and many speculators about this is a time of opportunity.
if you buy in a market crash yes as I mentioned there could be great buys but you could be frustrated in the end by the long wait .. but I guess some just want to go thru it anyways .... carry on then
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(31-07-2012, 11:02 AM)etan Wrote: I guess you have more faith in the stock market probably becos your investment journey was more smooth sailing.
Haha nah I won't say it's smooth-sailing. At the height of the crisis, my portfolio was down -60% and I can tell you now that the feeling was utterly depressing.
It's not really about faith in the stock market - more of conviction that your analysis is correct and that quality companies will remain quality companies; thus what Mr. Market offers is simply a function of sentiment and expectations rather than a reflection of business reality.
Of course, some may argue that I've only gone through one (terrible) bear market, and that I've lots to learn. This I do admit. But at least I know I won't be making the same mistakes and ignoring my margin of safety ever again....
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I don't want to sound naive but I have been reading that people often put financial freedom as their goal. But is that correct?
What I am saying is whether financial freedom be the end goal or should just be a by-product of doing what you love? This is because I have read a few of the threads here and those who have reached that goal in their 30s have done it by doing things that they themselves admit is something that they won't do for the rest of their lives and they want something better thereafter.
On the other hand, reading about people like Burt Rutan or Steve Jobs, financial freedom is not something that they set out to achieve at the start of their careers but was something they got along the way in doing something they love.
You can count on the greed of man for the next recession to happen.
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31-07-2012, 08:29 PM
(This post was last modified: 31-07-2012, 08:30 PM by yeokiwi.)
Quote:On the other hand, reading about people like Burt Rutan or Steve Jobs, financial freedom is not something that they set out to achieve at the start of their careers but was something they got along the way in doing something they love.
Most of the people on this earth are unable to convert their interest to a career.
Some are blessed with talents that are not sought after.
So, in order to pursue interest that will not bring in any money, they have to choose a career that they can earn enough to make a living and pursue their interests during their idle time.
The main reason that people put financial freedom as their goal is simply because they want to get away from the job that they do not like and want to spend times on activities that they like but do not bring in the dough.
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