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白酒行业有30%的产能过剩 深度调整不可避免
2014-1-15 10:09:48 中国食品科技网
白酒行业从来就不缺少新闻，尤其在目前整个行业不景气的情况下。
对于中国的白酒行业来说，“这是最好的时代，也是最坏的时代”。2014年是白酒行业发展非常关键的一年。十年的黄金发展期已经过去，由于产能的持续扩张、利润的严重透支，一度“牛气冲天”的白酒行业将迎来深度调整期。一大批中小企业将不可避免地倒闭，大中型企业也将面临更严重的困难，整个白酒行业的商业生态也会重新构建。
产能过剩集中爆发
最近一段时间，有关茅台镇近三分之一的中小企业面临倒闭、沧州一家酒厂求被收购、五粮液公司拍卖公车等一系列关于白酒行业的新闻不时见诸报端，将整个行业产能过剩背后的深层矛盾暴露出来。
从2003年开始，中国的白酒行业发展经历了十年的“黄金时代”。2013年初，行业问题逐渐凸显，到2014年，行业发展将进入拐点。
有业内人士认为，白酒行业产能规划明显冒进，品牌企业产能扩张速度过快，到2014年产能集中释放后，白酒行业过剩局面难以避免，特别是中高端白酒产能过剩压力尤大。受此影响，白酒企业不仅产量增速下滑，收入和利润增速将放缓。
实际上，我国白酒行业的产能过剩问题一直存在，但在高利润的掩盖下，始终没有引起行业的足够重视。
根据《中国酿酒产业“十二五”发展规划》，到2015年，全国白酒总产量将达到960万千升，比“十一五”末增长8%，年均增长1.5%；销售收入达430亿元，比“十一五”末增长60%，年均增长10%。
但在“十二五”第二年的2011年，我国白酒产量就已达1025.6万千升，同比增长30.70 %，远远超过了“十二五”整个期间的产能规划。
如此惊人的产能扩张此前已经引起社会各界对白酒行业未来产能过剩的担忧。
有经济学家在2012年就曾算了一笔账：白酒行业至少有30%的产能过剩，如果每年产能下降1%，需要20多年才能消化目前盲目扩张带来的后果，产能过剩将是未来一段时间不可回避的难题。
而这一问题，在中央限制三公消费的背景下，更是日益凸显出来，并引发了白酒行业一系列潜在问题的提前出现，白酒暴利的时代也随之结束。
为求政绩地方推波助澜
中国酿酒工业协会一位负责人称，推动白酒产能过剩的三大因素分别是企业雄心、政府干预、资本“加油”。尤其是地方政府的经济指标、税收、就业增长等压力从根本上推动了酒企的增资和扩张，为产能过剩的出现起到了推波助澜的作用。
公开数据显示，以酱香型白酒来说，“十一五”末贵州省白酒产能为16万千升，到“十二五”末要达到80万千升，其中酱香型白酒占90%，达到70 万千升；四川省提出到“十二五”末，酱香型白酒产能要达到9万千升至10万千升；据统计，全国各地“十一五”末酱香型白酒产能约30万千升，按照规划，到“十二五”末将达到90万千升到100万千升。
四川提出白酒的发展战略路径为“推动中国白酒金三角共同发展”，力争川酒2015年实现2500亿元产值。而2010年全国白酒销售收入仅2700亿元。在贵州，地方政府绘就了“未来十年中国白酒看贵州”的美好蓝图：新增6至10个中国驰名商标和一批著名商标，白酒工业总产值确保1300亿元，力争1500亿元。江苏、湖北、安徽等白酒大省也在不失时机地推进产能扩张的步伐，纷纷建立自己的酒都、产业集群。
白酒行业协会一位专家称，“在白酒主要产区，白酒经济已经成为当地政府主要经济来源之一。无论是政策上还是技术上，地方白酒企业都得到了当地政府的‘精心呵护’。”
如果说在过去十年白酒行业高利润的背景下，整个行业都在“扩容、升价、高增长”，这种产能过剩的危机还能被掩盖，但目前在整个行业深陷危机的时刻，产能的集中爆发将加剧行业的深度调整。
深度调整不可避免
“中国白酒业已告别暴利时代。”中国酒业协会理事长王延才说，在经历了10年的高速增长后，白酒业发展将回归理性。
据Wind数据统计，2003年至2012年，白酒行业13家上市公司营业总收入为3960.69亿元，增速呈逐年递增之势，2011年达到最高峰，为45.97%。2011年、2012年行业净利润增速分别为60.16%和54.51%。
而从2003年到2013年，茅台酒价格大约上涨6倍，泸州老窖和五粮液的价格均成倍上涨。
但是进入2013年后，情况急转而下。不仅高端白酒价格大幅跳水，整个行业利润也急剧下滑。2013年上半年，白酒行业收入2402.1亿元，利润只有399.1亿元，增速较去年同期分别大幅下降18.2%和54.5%。
在利润不佳的情况下，一些企业在建或拟建的产能扩展项目也纷纷停止。比如，2013年上半年，水井坊决定缓建其邛崃基地项目，并将550亩用于该项目建设的土地归还政府。据了解，这个项目本身就是一个产能扩张项目，是水井坊基于2011年行业整体情况制定的产能布局，也是为了顺应政府产业集中发展的规划而推进的产能扩张。但是，2013年行业遭遇深刻调整，产能扩张太快，高端白酒销售量价齐跌。水井坊为了把更多资金和经费投入到下游市场上去，只能暂时“牺牲”这个项目。
“中国白酒进入深度调整期，这是行业整合的一个契机。”五粮液副总经理彭智辅表示。
据了解，国内规模以上的白酒企业有2000家，而产能过剩将会推动白酒行业的重组及并购，这将会影响到一大批企业的生存。
有业内人士认为，以生产基酒为生的企业，将会首先受到冲击。有3000家小白酒企业将面临倒闭或被兼并的风险，白酒行业集中度将进一步提高。
“白酒行业确实需要死掉一大批企业，才能形成类似全球白酒巨头帝亚吉欧模式的多品牌运营商。”有专家认为。
“中国白酒太分散了，市场竞争无序，企业想的问题就是拼命地抢占市场，其中就有相当一部分企业不注重消费者的需求。”彭智辅在接受媒体采访时表示。
在多数业内人士看来，白酒行业新一轮的兼并重组不可避免，只有如此，才能有助于整个行业走出低谷。
另外，企业在推出产品方面也必须更加理性，不能紧盯公务市场，要认真琢磨消费者的真正需求。“产品结构调整势在必行，酒企应把眼光更多聚焦到老百姓买得起、买得到、乐于买的白酒。”白酒行业专家肖竹青说
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Will Dukang Distillers walk out of the shambles, that is the Baijiu industry, picking up the sales of their former competitors and emerge as the victor? Or will it fall with the rest of the small Baijiu producers and disappear into irrelevance?
It is lucky that Dukang Distillers has a very healthy balance sheet. The fact that their sales (by volume) has increased in the last quarter, despite these tough times, is actually a good sign that it will tide itself through.
It will probably be quite painful for investors to hold on to this stock for awhile as their profit decline and growth becomes negative though.
Will decide what to do with this counter based on the next quarterly report.
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Dukang reversal..... uptrend?
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Don't put too much attention to price trend.
Second quarter result releasing soon, probably some speculators entering.
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Not sure if anyone brought this up but anyone has the answer to the questions in this link: http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/dukang-...00217.html
Quote: 1. Why did it choose donations over dividends?
Despite posting robust performance year after year, Dukang Distillers is yet to declare a dividend since its listing in 2008.
At the end of FY13, Dukang Distillers' cash reserve increased 61.5% to RMB 757.6 mln (refer page 3 of Q4 earnings report).
Moreover, the company had an overall net cash position with a negligible debt of RMB 84 mln on its books at the end of FY13.
Despite that, Dukang Distillers didn't declare any dividend for the year.
But what's even more curious is that the company had donated RMB 27.1 mln, during Q3, for improving educational environment in the rural area of Henan, China (refer page 12 of Q3 earnings report).
Obviously, the shareholders would wonder why the management didn't prefer dividends over donations.
Quote: 2. Which institutions and/or individuals did it donate RMB 27.1 mln to?
A RMB 27.1 mln donation is certainly a big amount.
The investors are already sceptical of the businesses of companies operating in China (popularly known as S-chips) because of the remote location of operations.
We are not alleging any wrong-doing at Dukang Distillers.
But shareholders deserve to know the institutions and/or individuals which were the beneficiaries of the company's RMB 27.1 mln donations.
Dukang Distillers has its production facilities in Henan province.
Also, its promoters/directors/controlling shareholders hail from the same province.
Therefore, is it possible that the beneficiaries of the donations are related to the controlling shareholders/promoters/directors of Dukang Distillers?
We don't know. But management can enlighten us.
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31-01-2014, 01:50 PM
(This post was last modified: 31-01-2014, 02:02 PM by rogerwilco.)
(30-01-2014, 10:06 PM)Wildreamz Wrote: Not sure if anyone brought this up but anyone has the answer to the questions in this link: http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/dukang-...00217.html
1. Why did it choose donations over dividends?
2. Which institutions and/or individuals did it donate RMB 27.1 mln to?
Wildreamz, personally I (subjetively) don't really mind donations over dividends. Donations can be seen as below the line advertising or corporate social responsibility spending to maintain good working relationship with local government and people who live near the company's place of doing business.
However I definitely agree that Dukang's management should be more open in disclosing their donations spending. At the very least they should publish activities and photos related to the donations.
On a related note, Diageo has just disclosed that their Shui Jing Fang's sales has dropped 66% and they has just introduced premium product with lower price. Diageo butressed their baijiu's sales decline by the increase of their other products (for example: Baileys). Diageo's CEO also has stated that he expects sales to start to recover in the 2015.
My take is: this situation does not bode well on Dukang's upcoming quarterly result announcement... 
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31-01-2014, 07:20 PM
(This post was last modified: 31-01-2014, 07:20 PM by investor101.)
As far as I am concerned, if an Ah Tiong company claims that it is profitable, is in the black and has lot of money, and still doesn't pay any or significant dividend, it is a major red flag and I should stay away from investing any money in this company.
Screw political correctness.
(30-01-2014, 10:06 PM)Wildreamz Wrote: Not sure if anyone brought this up but anyone has the answer to the questions in this link: http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/dukang-...00217.html
Quote: 1. Why did it choose donations over dividends?
Despite posting robust performance year after year, Dukang Distillers is yet to declare a dividend since its listing in 2008.
At the end of FY13, Dukang Distillers' cash reserve increased 61.5% to RMB 757.6 mln (refer page 3 of Q4 earnings report).
Moreover, the company had an overall net cash position with a negligible debt of RMB 84 mln on its books at the end of FY13.
Despite that, Dukang Distillers didn't declare any dividend for the year.
But what's even more curious is that the company had donated RMB 27.1 mln, during Q3, for improving educational environment in the rural area of Henan, China (refer page 12 of Q3 earnings report).
Obviously, the shareholders would wonder why the management didn't prefer dividends over donations.
Quote: 2. Which institutions and/or individuals did it donate RMB 27.1 mln to?
A RMB 27.1 mln donation is certainly a big amount.
The investors are already sceptical of the businesses of companies operating in China (popularly known as S-chips) because of the remote location of operations.
We are not alleging any wrong-doing at Dukang Distillers.
But shareholders deserve to know the institutions and/or individuals which were the beneficiaries of the company's RMB 27.1 mln donations.
Dukang Distillers has its production facilities in Henan province.
Also, its promoters/directors/controlling shareholders hail from the same province.
Therefore, is it possible that the beneficiaries of the donations are related to the controlling shareholders/promoters/directors of Dukang Distillers?
We don't know. But management can enlighten us.
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Dukang will only get worse from this point as the central government has stepped up enforcement against superfluous spending of officials .....
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31-01-2014, 10:54 PM
(This post was last modified: 31-01-2014, 11:13 PM by Wildreamz.)
(31-01-2014, 10:39 PM)potatolover Wrote: Dukang will only get worse from this point as the central government has stepped up enforcement against superfluous spending of officials .....
Perhaps.
Over the past years, despite the down trend in the Baijiu industry, Dukang has been outstanding in increasing their sales and profit as they establish their brand name and market towards the broader mass market (2nd tier Baijiu), which is less affected by the spending cut.
However, the larger Baijiu makers such as MaoTai has been starting to shift their attention towards the lower tier mid range market. So their future is hard to predict right now.
Depending on their next quarter result, I may divest my investment in Dukang, if they can't show strong year on year growth in sales (market share). But the previous quarter results have been promising. The next quarter results maybe quite indicative.
@rogerwilco
Yes, as an investor, I do feel they are obliged to give us a good answer. For folks who have significant holdings in Dukang, I think it is good to find out asap. A back of the envelope calculation tells me that Dukang could have distributed around SGD$0.01 or around 3.7% dividend based on the recent price of $0.27 instead.
That said with some checking on Dukang's official home page, it is not hard to find reports where Dukang participated in some kind of charitable activity, for example:
1. http://www.dukang.com/news/ShowNews_list01.aspx?no=555
2. http://www.dukang.com/news/ShowNews_list02.aspx?no=492
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Looking on the other thread about Eratat, there is a high likelihood of fraud with a cash rich company. No doubt Dukang could be a next target.
Not to forget, Dukang had a complete change of ownership to the owner of Synear food holding which was delisted in 2013. Not entirely sure this new management acts in best interest of minority shareholder.
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