UMS Holdings

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Global Semiconductor Sales Increase 1.5 Percent in Third Quarter

SEPTEMBER SALES UP SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO LAST MONTH, DOWN COMPARED TO LAST YEAR
Published Monday, November 2, 2015 4:30 pm
by Dan Rosso

WASHINGTON—Nov. 2, 2015—The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), representing U.S. leadership in semiconductor manufacturing, design, and research, today announced worldwide sales of semiconductors reached $85.2 billion during the third quarter of 2015. This total marks an increase of 1.5 percent compared to the previous quarter, but is 2.8 percent lower than the third quarter of last year. Global sales for the month of September 2015 were $28.4 billion, 1.9 percent more than last month’s sales, but 2.8 percent less than sales from September 2014. All monthly sales numbers are compiled by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization and represent a three-month moving average. 

“Global semiconductor sales showed signs of resilience in September, increasing compared to the previous month across all regional markets for the first time in more than a year,” said John Neuffer, president and CEO, Semiconductor Industry Association. “However, softening demand and currency devaluation caused year-to-year sales to dip for the third straight month.”


Regionally, sales were up compared to last month in the Americas (4.0 percent), China (2.6 percent), Europe (2.2 percent), Japan (0.5 percent), and Asia Pacific/All Other (0.1 percent). Year-to-year sales increased in China (5.0 percent), but decreased in Asia Pacific/All Other (-3.5 percent), the Americas (-3.9 percent), Europe (-10.6 percent), and Japan (-11.4 percent). 


“One thing proven to spur semiconductor sales globally is maintaining free and open markets,” Neuffer continued. “In June, SIA successfully encouraged policymakers to approve legislation to facilitate free trade agreements. In July, a major deal was struck in Geneva at the World Trade Organization to expand the Information Technology Agreement to eliminate tariffs on next-generation semiconductors called MCOs and a wide range of tech products. And in October, negotiators from around the Asia-Pacific region reached an agreement on a massive trade agreement called the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). The TPP would spur growth and promote innovation in our industry and throughout the U.S. economy, and Congress should approve it.”  

   
September 2015 chart and graph


http://www.semiconductors.org/news/2015/...d_quarter/

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Research, research and research - Please do your own due diligence (DYODD) before you invest - Any reliance on my analysis is SOLELY at your own risk.
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Automotive IC Market to Display Strongest Growth Through 2019
Systems that assist, automate, and communicate are increasing IC content on new luxury and base model vehicles. 
06 Nov 2015
By IC Insights

http://www.icinsights.com/data/articles/...ts/834.pdf
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Will People Pay More?
The tech industry has to prove that smart devices are a smart investment.
NOVEMBER 5TH, 2015 - BY: ED SPERLING
http://semiengineering.com/will-people-pay-more/
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Google wants to design its Android chips to vie with Apple
By Sarmistha Acharya
November 6, 2015
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/google-wants-de...le-1527474
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Research, research and research - Please do your own due diligence (DYODD) before you invest - Any reliance on my analysis is SOLELY at your own risk.
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Q3 FY2015 just out. Impressive set of results except FCFs but the decrease is mostly caused by a huge imcrease in trade receivable which is consistent with the observed increase of revenue. At least one advantage of working with only one but reliable client is that UMS should not have any problem transforming these receivables into cash.
Q4 will likely be lower but still profitable so with that in mind plus this quarter receivables being at least partially converted into cash UMS should have more than enough cash to pay a 2c special dividends. I am actually now hoping for 3c but we will have to wait and see by how much revenue decrease in Q4

<vested>
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3Q2015 (9M2015) Results:
 
Revenue (SGD million):
1Q2014 = 34.309
2Q2014 = 28.689    (1H2014 = 62.998)
3Q2014 = 24.771    (9M2014 = 87.769)
4Q2014 = 22.050    (FY2014 = 109.819)
1Q2015 = 27.467
2Q2015 = 31.043    (1H2015 = 58.510)
3Q2015 = 30.696    (9M2015 = 89.206)
 
NPAT (SGD million):
1Q2014 = 8.558
2Q2014 = 7.229     (1H2014 = 15.787)
3Q2014 = 6,465     (9M2014 = 21.252)
4Q2014 = 3.677     (FY2014 = 24.929)
1Q2015 = 7.541
2Q2015 = 8.266     (1H2015 = 15.807)
3Q2015 = 8.531     (9M2015 = 24.338)
 
EPS ( SGD Cent ):
1Q2014 = 2.00     (adjusted for bonus issue)
2Q2014 = 1.68     (1H2014 = 3.68)
3Q2014 = 1.27     (9M2014= 4.95)
4Q2014 = 0.86     (FY2014 = 5.81)
1Q2015 = 1.76
2Q2015 = 1.93     (1H2015 = 3.68)
3Q2015 = 1.99     (9M2015 = 5.67)
 
Gross Profit Margin (GPM):
1Q2014 = 53%
2Q2014 = 57%
3Q2014 = 54%
4Q2014 = 54%
1Q2015 = 57%
2Q2015 = 57%
3Q2015 = 55%
 
Net Profit Margin (NPM):
1Q2014 = 24.9%
2Q2014 = 25.2%
3Q2014 = 22.1%
4Q2014 = 16.7%
1Q2015 = 27.5%
2Q2015 = 26.6%
3Q2015 = 27.8% (include FX gain)
 
FCF Generated (SGD million):
1Q2014 =10.3
2Q2014 = 3.9    (1H2014 = 14.2)
3Q2014 = 5.7    (9M2014 = 19.9)
4Q2014 = 9.0    (FY2014 = 28.9)
1Q2015 = 6.4
2Q2015 =12.6  (1H2015 = 19.0)
3Q2015 = 3.5   (9M2015 = 22.5)
 
Cash & Cash Equivalent (SGD million)
1Q2014 = 39.511
2Q2014 = 36.113 (debt = 5.000) ; Net Cash = 31.113
3Q2014 = 32.947
4Q2014 = 33.792
1Q2015 = 40.801
2Q2015 = 39.607 (no bank borrowing)
3Q2015 = 38.255 (no bank borrowing)
 
DPS ( SGD Cent ):
1Q2014 = 1.00
2Q2014 = 1.00   
3Q2014 = 1.00   
4Q2014 = 3.00    (FY2014 = 6.00)
1Q2015 = 1.00
2Q2015 = 1.00    
3Q2015 = 1.00
 
Comments:
1)  Overall, not a bad set of results.
2) Quarterly revenue came in above SGD 30 m again.
3) NPAT/EPS for 9M2015 almost on par with that of FY2014 – thanks to FX gain.
4) FCF generated in 3Q2015 was low – due to increase in trade receivables.
5) The Group remains confident of being profitable for the rest of the year despite an expected slowdown in 4Q2015.
6) 4Q2014 was considered a “bad” quarter (except for FCF generated). If revenue/NPAT for 4Q2015 could equal that of 4Q2014 plus FCF for 4Q2015 could come in above SGD6.4 million, then FY2015 results would beat that of FY2014 in all 3 metrics (revenue, NPAT and FCF)
7) DPS of 6 cents for FY2015 seems very likely – above that is anybody’s guess.
8) “Despite the short term weakness, the Group is optimistic about its mid to long term prospects.” – how long is long term ? Beyond the contract expiry date with AMAT in 2017? It sounds as if it is not an issue ! Ha-ha !
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Research, research and research - Please do your own due diligence (DYODD) before you invest - Any reliance on my analysis is SOLELY at your own risk.
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The 9M 15 FCF can cover 5 cents dividend so it should be likely maintained. The cash hoard is getting increasingly larger...

(Not Vested)
Disclaimer: Please feel free to correct any error in my post. I am not liable for anything. Do your own research and analysis. I do NOT give buy or sell calls and stock tips. Buy and sell at your risk. I am not a qualified financial adviser so I do not give any advice. The postings reflects my own personal thoughts which may or may not be accurate.
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TSMC board approves US$4 billion for advanced technology capacity expansion
Jessie Shen, DIGITIMES, Taipei [Wednesday 11 November 2015]

The board of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) has approved capital appropriations of US$3.96 billion for expanding capacity for advanced-node manufacturing, and packaging and assembly, as well as construction of fab facilities and installation of facility systems, and first-quarter 2016 R&D capital investments and sustaining capital expenditures.

At its most-recent investors meeting, TSMC estimated capex for 2015 at US$8 billion, a downward revision from the previously-set US$10.5-11 billion. Capex for 2016 will be higher than 2015 levels, the company said.

TSMC reported NT$721.72 billion (US$22.1 billion) in consolidated revenues for the first 10 months of 2015, up 16.2% from a year earlier.

http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20151111PR205.html
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Research, research and research - Please do your own due diligence (DYODD) before you invest - Any reliance on my analysis is SOLELY at your own risk.
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(10-11-2015, 06:24 PM)Nick Wrote: The 9M 15 FCF can cover 5 cents dividend so it should be likely maintained. The cash hoard is getting increasingly larger...

(Not Vested)

Nick, been following you and Boon's updates for a while on UMS. Just realised you are now not vested. Can share on the reason?
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(12-11-2015, 10:00 AM)LocalOptimal Wrote:
(10-11-2015, 06:24 PM)Nick Wrote: The 9M 15 FCF can cover 5 cents dividend so it should be likely maintained. The cash hoard is getting increasingly larger...

(Not Vested)

Nick, been following you and Boon's updates for a while on UMS. Just realised you are now not vested. Can share on the reason?


Nick has explained the reason before on this thread: the CEO Andy has been selling stocks every year (usually in February or March). While Andy repeated many times that this has nothing to do with the prospects of the company (apparently he likes spending his money in bungalows renovation...) this is a legitimate source of concerns for UMS shareholders... Personally I do believe Andy reasons and decided that it was actually giving me an opportunity to buy more at a good price but we will see by end of next year if I made a good call or not (when AMAT will renew or not their contract with UMS)

<vested>
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(12-11-2015, 10:11 AM)ethys Wrote:
(12-11-2015, 10:00 AM)LocalOptimal Wrote:
(10-11-2015, 06:24 PM)Nick Wrote: The 9M 15 FCF can cover 5 cents dividend so it should be likely maintained. The cash hoard is getting increasingly larger...

(Not Vested)

Nick, been following you and Boon's updates for a while on UMS. Just realised you are now not vested. Can share on the reason?


Nick has explained the reason before on this thread: the CEO Andy has been selling stocks every year (usually in February or March). While Andy repeated many times that this has nothing to do with the prospects of the company (apparently he likes spending his money in bungalows renovation...) this is a legitimate source of concerns for UMS shareholders... Personally I do believe Andy reasons and decided that it was actually giving me an opportunity to buy more at a good price but we will see by end of next year if I made a good call or not (when AMAT will renew or not their contract with UMS)

<vested>

AMAT doing very well, no point not renew contract, especially China market now pouring money into tech. with the ramp up this year to 3dNand, profits will continue to come flowing. 

Any problems will likely arise only if AMAT's business takes a  big hit and they have to cut cost. At the moment, AMAT doesn't seem to be pressuring UMS to lower its margins.

Would keep an eye on AMAT earnings releases though, latest quarter happening this afternoon at 5pm SG time.
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AMAT reported results for its fourth quarter ended Oct 25, 2015.
 
For 4Q2015, Revenue and New Orders for SSG dropped compared to the previous quarter. Overall, FY2015 was slightly better year than FY2014.
 
SSG : Revenue (USD million):
1Q2014 = 1,484
2Q2014 = 1,584
3Q2014 = 1,476
4Q2014 = 1,434  (FY2014 = 5,978)
1Q2015 = 1,446
2Q2015 = 1,560
3Q2015 = 1.635
4Q2015 = 1,494  (FY2015 = 6,135)
 
SSG : New Orders (USD million)
1Q2014 = 1,569
2Q2014 = 1,664
3Q2014 = 1,565
4Q2014 = 1,334   (FY2014 = 6,132)
1Q2015 = 1,426
2Q2015 = 1,704
3Q2015 = 2,007
4Q2015 = 1,444   (FY2015 = 6,581)
 
SSG : Backlog (USD million)
1Q2014 = 1,366
2Q2014 = 1,452
3Q2014 = 1,515
4Q2014 = 1,401
1Q2015 = 1,362
2Q2015 = 1,473
3Q2015 = 1,767
4Q2015 = 1,727
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Research, research and research - Please do your own due diligence (DYODD) before you invest - Any reliance on my analysis is SOLELY at your own risk.
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