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IPOs are being rolled out hot and fast! Does this signal where we are now in terms of the bull/bear cycle? 
The Straits Times
Apr 13, 2012
Hotel trust slated for S'pore IPO
By Jonathan Kwok
A HOTEL trust with properties in the Asia-Pacific region is planning to list here.
M&L Hospitality Trusts, as the vehicle will be called, will initially hold 2,509 rooms over six hotels.
These will be the Ibis Hotel on Bencoolen Street and Ibis Hotel Novena in Singapore, Four Points by Sheraton and Swissotel Sydney in Sydney, Melbourne's Travelodge Docklands and the Hilton Nagoya in Japan.
A preliminary prospectus lodged with the Monetary Authority of Singapore did not mention the initial public offering price, but a Bloomberg report said the units will be priced between 80 cents and 87 cents each, to raise as much as $463 million.
Bloomberg said trading is slated to start on May 3, and the vehicle is forecast to yield as much as 8.05 per cent this year, and between 7.7 per cent and 8.3 per cent next year.
M&L will be a relatively unique vehicle, known as a stapled group. That is because its hotels will be held under a business trust and a real estate investment trust (Reit).
Investors will hold what is known as 'stapled securities', each consisting of one unit in the Reit and one unit in the business trust. All the six hotels are now held under the Reit, with the business trust being a dormant entity at the point of listing.
The preliminary prospectus did not specify the purpose of having the business trust, but Reits are governed by strict rules that dictate that the vast majority of the properties must be income- producing and cannot be under development.
The laws over business trusts are less strict, and some sponsors have injected assets under development into business trusts before they have been completed. Observers said the business trust in the vehicle would leave this option open for M&L.
M&L will be sponsored by Grand Line International, which is held by the Kum family, one of the pioneers in Singapore's shipping industry.
Businessman Michael Kum from the family will be selling some of the hotels he had earlier bought in this listing.
DBS Bank, JP Morgan and UBS are the joint global coordinators, bookrunners, issue managers and underwriters of the offering.
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Gd Day MW,
My sifu told me mkt has 10 yr cycles:
87 - Black Monday crash, 97 - AFC, 07 - GFC and hence 17 will be next.
Of course, in between, there will be mini but notable corrections. As it is, the world remains full of problems and will always be that way as none of the economic theories that we learn from textbooks never ever gets adopted to solve problems.
Economics is a social science. Unfortunately due to inability of human beings to accept hard and painful decisions, economic problems continue to mutate like diseases and hence economic problems continue to snowball through generations.
Typical mkt cycle takes 10 yrs - 7 to 8 yrs to reconstruct (in order to build complacency amongst investors and to attract new blood) to result in a penultimate crazy climax at the end of the bull (when everyone throw caution to the winds) and it only takes 2 -3 yrs for bears to destroy - the extent of which can be so scary to force non religious investors to have a rethink about religion.
Interesting? Personally, we are in the mid cycle and we will be fun to see if 10 yr cycle hold for the current trend....
(13-04-2012, 07:35 AM)Musicwhiz Wrote: IPOs are being rolled out hot and fast! Does this signal where we are now in terms of the bull/bear cycle?
The Straits Times
Apr 13, 2012
Hotel trust slated for S'pore IPO
By Jonathan Kwok
A HOTEL trust with properties in the Asia-Pacific region is planning to list here.
M&L Hospitality Trusts, as the vehicle will be called, will initially hold 2,509 rooms over six hotels.
These will be the Ibis Hotel on Bencoolen Street and Ibis Hotel Novena in Singapore, Four Points by Sheraton and Swissotel Sydney in Sydney, Melbourne's Travelodge Docklands and the Hilton Nagoya in Japan.
A preliminary prospectus lodged with the Monetary Authority of Singapore did not mention the initial public offering price, but a Bloomberg report said the units will be priced between 80 cents and 87 cents each, to raise as much as $463 million.
Bloomberg said trading is slated to start on May 3, and the vehicle is forecast to yield as much as 8.05 per cent this year, and between 7.7 per cent and 8.3 per cent next year.
M&L will be a relatively unique vehicle, known as a stapled group. That is because its hotels will be held under a business trust and a real estate investment trust (Reit).
Investors will hold what is known as 'stapled securities', each consisting of one unit in the Reit and one unit in the business trust. All the six hotels are now held under the Reit, with the business trust being a dormant entity at the point of listing.
The preliminary prospectus did not specify the purpose of having the business trust, but Reits are governed by strict rules that dictate that the vast majority of the properties must be income- producing and cannot be under development.
The laws over business trusts are less strict, and some sponsors have injected assets under development into business trusts before they have been completed. Observers said the business trust in the vehicle would leave this option open for M&L.
M&L will be sponsored by Grand Line International, which is held by the Kum family, one of the pioneers in Singapore's shipping industry.
Businessman Michael Kum from the family will be selling some of the hotels he had earlier bought in this listing.
DBS Bank, JP Morgan and UBS are the joint global coordinators, bookrunners, issue managers and underwriters of the offering.
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(13-04-2012, 08:15 AM)greengiraffe Wrote: My sifu told me mkt has 10 yr cycles:
87 - Black Monday crash, 97 - AFC, 07 - GFC and hence 17 will be next.
If we were to look at just STI month end performance data, it actually ended up +16.63% in '07. For the whole year, it stayed +ve and even peaked at +27.46% in Nov.
The correction started in '08, with a huge escalation from Sep, ending the year -49.41% (worst in Nov @ -50.25%).
I guess the 10-Yr Cycle theory need to put in a margin of error of +/- xx Years? 
The 90s data also look very interesting as it was '97 (-30.99% - Bingo! Hit the spot) but '99 (+78.04%) then '00 (-22.29%), '01 (-15.74%), '02 (-20.46%). That must be a cycle-within-a-cycle thingy??
Anyway, too complicated for me to see any pattern or sub-patterns. I better focus on simpler things that I have a better chance of understanding, like, the individual cos.' biz (their P/L, B/S, CF, Products, Management, Competitors,..) - come to think of it, that's already complicated enough or me! 
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i do believe in the theory of the 10 years cycle, but I like to play it safe by cutting it by2 years. So when it reaches the 2016, I will become very very careful to restrain my emotion.
The 10-12 years cycle is a big swing which means stocks are likely to fall by more than 50%. In between, there will be small crisis here and there, like our current euro crisis. But I think that the more crises you have in between, the higher the bull will go and the longer it will last.
This final crisis will occur during a bull market, and will be a black swan unlike our euro crisis where preparation and firewall can be made before they completely collapse.
Combination of financial instruments seemed to be always beneficial to the owners and the bankers and not the investor. Trust + Reits, I wonder what new tricks can come out of it?
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This is OT.
Bull markets are born in pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.
I think we are now in the "growing on skepticism" phase. There is still a lot of skepticism in the markets now and in the news.
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Hi Buddies,
Well sum up. Its always good be aware of timeline so that we don't get carried away by euphoria.
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My university professor used to joke that he could draw a curve based on 2 points, and a straight line based on a single point. Now you are predicting the next crisis based on 3 points - should be very accurate.
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(13-04-2012, 08:46 AM)KopiKat Wrote: Anyway, too complicated for me to see any pattern or sub-patterns.
Definitely OT but maybe this "Pendulum Waves Theory" can be of help?
Fifteen uncoupled simple pendulums of monotonically increasing lengths dance together to produce visual traveling waves, standing waves, beating, and random motion. One might call this kinetic art and the choreography of the dance of the pendulums is stunning! Aliasing and quantum revival can also be shown.
http://sciencedemonstrations.fas.harvard...tent341734
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(13-04-2012, 10:14 PM)swakoo Wrote: (13-04-2012, 08:46 AM)KopiKat Wrote: Anyway, too complicated for me to see any pattern or sub-patterns.
Definitely OT but maybe this "Pendulum Waves Theory" can be of help?
OMG! I got it now! I saw how the pattern repeats from 1:28 onwards. The sub-patterns were just a decoy to distract us from the real and dominant pattern! Thanks a million!
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18-04-2012, 02:18 PM
(This post was last modified: 18-04-2012, 02:54 PM by steven.)
PRELIMINARY PROSPECTUS DATED 12 APRIL 2012
https://masnetsvc.mas.gov.sg/opera/sdrpr...E003D3DA8/$File/M&L%20HT%20Preliminary%20Prospectus%20(12%20April%202012).pdf
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