Don't get seduced by analysts' darlings

Thread Rating:
  • 0 Vote(s) - 0 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
#1
The Straits Times
Sep 4, 2011
small change
Don't get seduced by analysts' darlings

Investors who buy these four stocks could end up kissing their money goodbye

By Andy Mukherjee

If you have cash stuffed in your mattress or bank account, and if you are itching to put it to work in the markets, let me try to talk you out of it.

For choppy markets to get better, sentiment must first hit rock bottom. Like it did in the first quarter of 2009.

Conditions are different now. Analysts are still overly bullish. They are beginning to turn nervous, but are far from throwing in the towel.

In this column, I'll discuss four stocks as examples. These stocks have fallen between 12 and 16 per cent in the past month, underperforming the Straits Times Index, but analysts are overwhelmingly sanguine about their prospects. What if the analysts' optimism is misplaced?

A disclaimer before we proceed: I have selected the stocks based on some rules that I'll shortly explain. I don't have any position in them, nor do I intend to take any.

If these stocks outperform the index over the next six months, well, I'll have egg on my face. And if I'm proved right in my scepticism, I'll start holding investment seminars (just kidding).

Let's move on. What the four stocks have in common is this: Analysts are in love with them. Their ardour is beginning to cool, but it'll be a while before the consensus opinion on these stocks turns negative. At that point, they'll become interesting again.

Measuring love is simple. I required consensus estimates for the target price - the analyst community's opinion of a stock's fair value - to be at least 25 per cent higher than the current price.

But how do we know whether analysts are beginning to feel nervous about these companies that they are so enamoured of?

With that in mind, I pared down the list to retain only those stocks on which at least twice as many analysts have cut their full-year earnings forecasts in the past month as have increased them.

I looked at only those Singapore-listed stocks for which 'buy' ratings by analysts, compiled by Bloomberg, comprised at least 60 per cent of all recommendations in the past year.

Further, to exclude illiquid stocks that aren't widely covered by analysts, I whittled down the list to only those that have secured at least 10 'buy' ratings from analysts in the past year.

At the end of this exercise, I was left with four names.

Noble Group

Analysts are still wildly bullish about Noble, which supplies energy, food and mining products where these are needed. The consensus estimate for the stock suggests a 35 per cent upside.

But some cracks in confidence are beginning to emerge. Ms Zuo Li at IIFL Capital cut her earnings growth forecast for Noble by 12 to 20 per cent for the current year and the next two.

Keep an eye on the European money markets. As the 2008 crisis clearly showed, when money markets dry up, trade - and traders - get hit.

Noble shares fell more than 80 per cent between June and October 2008.

Indofood Agri Resources

Indofood Agri, which produces and refines palm oil, is another analysts' darling languishing in the dumps.

With the hiving off of Salim Ivomas Pratama, which was separately listed in May, the company is sitting on 6.1 trillion Indonesian rupiah (S$860 million) in cash, with little clarity from management on future expansion. Meanwhile, the profit accruing to Indofood shareholders grew less than expected in the June quarter, according to a Nomura report.

Still, analysts are hopeful. The consensus estimate for the stock's target price is about 33 per cent higher than the current price.

Genting Singapore

'Spurned'. That's how Ms Magdalene Choong at PhillipCapital titled her analysis of the casino operator's 'exceptionally weak' second-quarter earnings.

Chip volumes declined 13 per cent from the previous three months' as high rollers took a breather to nurse the previous quarter's losses. Or they may have gone to Marina Bay Sands to gamble the night away.

According to Ms Choong, who downgraded the stock to 'hold' last month, the outlook for the stock does not look enticing.

'In view of the downwards revision on GDP as well as rising risks from Western economies, we further reduce Genting's valuation,' she wrote.

Overall, though, the analyst community is still gung-ho on Genting. After as many as 12 downgrades in the past month on the company's full-year earnings potential, the consensus target price is still 28 per cent higher than the market price.

The longer the analyst community stays on the wrong side of the market, the more quickly it can surrender.

DBS

With the United States Federal Reserve promising to keep overnight interest rates at about zero until mid-2013, local-currency interbank rates in Singapore, to which the domestic banks' lending rates are pegged, have collapsed. One key rate - the swap offer rate - has even turned negative.

'This development has dashed whatever hope there was in the market earlier about net interest margin bottoming out and recovering next year,' Kim Eng Securities analyst James Koh wrote in a recent research note, cutting his rating on all three Singapore banks to 'sell'.

The consensus in the analyst community, however, is that DBS Group's fair value is 28 per cent higher than what the stock currently sells for.

If the Singapore economy slips into a technical recession this quarter and loan growth slows markedly, then the lingering optimism on DBS could dissipate. That could be risky for investors.

For now, the cash in your mattress is quite safe where it is. If you really want to do something with your money, consider stocks with high dividend yields.

andym@sph.com.sg
My Value Investing Blog: http://sgmusicwhiz.blogspot.com/
Reply
#2
Simple articles like this which gives the best lessons that can be digested by anyone, and yet still value add remarkably for those who choose to follow.

Are there valuebuddies' darlings too?
Reply
#3
Blackjack,

Of course!

The trick is to buy a undervalued and unloved stock that no one is talking about. Buy it then introduce it to an "Opinion Leader". If the Opinion Leader agrees and supports it, we will see the followers come. Lots of chatter and opinions. Group think develops. Newbie suck in. Hype. Darling. Mania.

Unload. Start over. It's called Value Investing.

It works in the big ocean (analyst world), it will also work in our small pond Smile

The above is just a small satire. No offense intended.
Just google singapore man of leisure
Reply
#4
Opinion leader - I like this term! Of course, the next step is then to differentiate if the 'opinion' has been factored in, and to what extent, or whether the 'opinion' has successfully filtered through. Now that makes it not so straightforward anymore eh? I find myself constantly trying to challenge my conclusions from this worthwhile exercise. Smile
Reply
#5
Ha ha! Me too! But I must remind myself not to think too much. Can get crazy if not careful Smile

Like figuring out how many angels can dance on the tip of a pin head!? Hmm...

To your question: I measure the "weight" or "importance" of the Opinion Leader by observing the ripples it cause when the "stone" of the Opinion Leader is dropped into the water.

As for whehter it's factored in, if Tom, Dick, and Harry can quote what the Opinion Leader has said - the stock is fully valued!

LOL!

Just google singapore man of leisure
Reply
#6
(05-09-2011, 05:03 PM)Blackjack Wrote: Are there valuebuddies' darlings too?

Just look at the no of post and views on some of the company's post. Off hand I can name a few: Vicom, Viz, Kingsmen, Boustead, Adampak, Challenger, FirstREIT, MTQ.

They are have >100 post and >10,000 views! Sleepy

Reply
#7
(06-09-2011, 10:01 AM)lonewolf Wrote: Just look at the no of post and views on some of the company's post. Off hand I can name a few: Vicom, Viz, Kingsmen, Boustead, Adampak, Challenger, FirstREIT, MTQ.

They are have >100 post and >10,000 views! Sleepy

Ahaha, that's why I think the crucial point is to ask oneself whether these 'darlings' merit the attention they are getting.

This is where all Buddies have to think for themselves. Some of the more experienced Buddies can share their analysis of the financial statements, their conversations with Key Manangement at AGMs or their observations based on working industry knowledge etc. but nobuddy should be buying just because someone else said so.
Reply
#8
(06-09-2011, 10:18 AM)kazukirai Wrote: Ahaha, that's why I think the crucial point is to ask oneself whether these 'darlings' merit the attention they are getting.

I agree with Kazukirai, one has to ensure he does not fall in love with Value Buddies’ darlings! Haha. But seriously, every investor worth his salt should do independent and objective analysis of the numbers and prospects for any company, and not take any information at face value. This includes information that I have posted on the various threads for the companies in which I own shares. Big Grin
My Value Investing Blog: http://sgmusicwhiz.blogspot.com/
Reply


Forum Jump:


Users browsing this thread: 5 Guest(s)