The Coming Crash (no later than 1H2012)?

[WolfT]

未来上 何来下

[freedom]

most of the time annual gap between the high and the low was only around 20 - 30% only. years like 2008, 2009 are really exceptional.

but does 20 - 30% fluctuation considered crash? I don't think so. but does year 2012 or year 2013 look like another year 2008?

[Temperament]

It may not be considered a crash. But technically anything 20 - 25% below the latest peak is considered a Bear market.

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Anything 20-25% below the latest Peak is considered technically in Bear Market Territory. Yet it may happens very slowly before anyone realises we are in Bear Territory. If it happens "overnight", then it is a crash lol! The only difference is time factor only.

[KopiKat]

My 2 cents worth, it's almost impossible to predict the direction of the market in the short term. In fact, the shorter the time span, the greater the difficulty. There are countless times when the price of the security falls soon after I've done my purchases. I've given up trying to play God. My take is to search for outstanding well-established businesses and buy a meaningful part of the business (depending on one's financial ability) at reasonable prices. They don't have to be dirt cheap. But must be reasonably priced. Afterall, outstanding businesses rarely come dirt cheap anyway. If the businesses are indeed that good, the price will eventually go up anyway.

Years ago, I had already given up on forecasting.
So, instead of preempting the event that may or may not come, It is easier to take the fence.
And then react accordingly loh...

In my narrow view, there are three states of market,
1.Bull
2.Doldrums
3.Bear

Most investors are always anticipating the first and the last but most of the times, the 2nd state lasts the longest.
Sometimes, the 2nd state can last very very long and meanwhile, the cash in banks is losing its values.

The only way to get a reasonable return out of a market in doldrums is to get a good dividend yield from the portfolio and wait for the occasional special dividends, buyouts, spinoffs....

Essentially,

Warren Buffett : "(John Maynard) Keynes essentially said, don't try and figure out what the market is doing. Figure out a business you understand, and concentrate"

Peter Lynch : "Nobody can predict interest rates, the future direction of the economy, or the stock market. Dismiss all such forecasts and concentrate on what's actually happening to the companies in which you've invested."

[pianist]

this thread started on 2 Sep 2011. 9 months has passed and i still dun really feel any crisis coming. however i can feel the impact of inflation.