The Coming Crash (no later than 1H2012)?

[Temperament]

Don't forget China is changing their "old guards" too. But US economy is still larger than the BRIC if i am not wrong. So who will have the greater say. As for crash due to EURO.....????? Anyway, Uncle Sam say something, almost the "whole world" will listen in the past. Now.......???

[Behappyalways]

Rally still intact....3150 still looks highly probable. Hang Seng broke 21,000 and is still above it .... but a few things might trip the stock market as stated below. Hopefully these events would be postponed to 2H2012....


Greece won’t see a cent of the great bail-out
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnew...l-out.html

Start of a new year(Chinese). What would it bring? My guess is that by the end of the year, we might be back to square one compared to start of the year or somewhere close to that.

During the first part we could see a strong rally follow by a sharp fall in the latter part. Yes, we might now be in a rally or start of a rally. Need to see volume to confirm....but the global markets' technical chart looks nice and PE ratio of many markets are attractive.....If I remember HK's PE was around 10.....

Hence a rally seems probable....attractive PE and technical charts.

What could derail the rally? 4 possible events. One is the Euro crisis. Next is possible conflict in Middle East. If US strikes or forced to strike Iran, I doubt it would stop after hitting their nuclear facilities. Iran's influence in Middle East is getting stronger esp after US pullout from Iraq. US used to use Iraq to balance Iran but after the invasion of Iraq, Iraq is severely weakened. So if they gonna hit Iran this time, my bet is US would try to go a bit further(hit Iran harder) so as to rebalance the powers in Middle East. Third event I could think of is a major calamity.......maybe a big earthquake in US or China. That would stall China's economic expansion. The last one is a ..... to be filled in......

So my guess is that we might be in a start of a rally from now till one(or more) of these events strike and things will go nasty from then on. A year of VOLATILILTY.

For me, I plan to be zero vested in stock market by the end of the year....maybe sooner....but

Man proposes God disposes

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DKQIooHMGHQ

[newborn1000]

I dont think anybody cares about greece anymore......should be more concern about USA & China

[Behappyalways]

I wish so but Greece is a start of more defaults by other Euro countries. I think Greece will default or be kicked out but not so soon because Euro region not ready yet. Banks need to be recapitalised first and European Financial Stability Fund not ready(June/July 2012 I think) yet so they will not Greece defaults. (Stock market in bull so we can take this chance to make some money and be entirely out)

But Greece got to default/kick out sooner or later because Govt's debt to GDP is not falling fast enough even with write-off because the austerity is shrinking the economy. You can't just keep on throwing money into Greece and the Euro countries are not happy about it. So Greece will default(have their own currency and devalue their currency and build up their productivity from there) when the Euro countries are ready but not at the moment. Portugal might have to go too. Its economy is also shrinking with unemployment still rising. Same situation as Greece abet bigger. Back to the same problem. Euro countries cannot keep on throwing money into countries that are not able to bring their govt debt ratio to GDP down(partly due to austerity, economy shrinks hence even with lower debt, the govt debt ratio is not able to reduce significantly)

I dont think anybody cares about greece anymore......should be more concern about USA & China

[Behappyalways]

Story Time ^^

Imagine you got a neighbour. He is deep in debts. Ask for your help. Well neighbour needs help...don't help him Ah long put pig head and splash red paints....what if ah long middle of night shootbird and splash on your door instead.....so no choice help your neighbour.......but warn him...you need to borrow less and earn more....cut cut cut.....

After a few months, ah long comes again...pig head for breakfast again plus brand new (artistic)red door.....what to do? help again...spend more time analysing your neighbour's finance...omg found that this neighbour no matter what he does, in 2020 he would still be heavily in debt.....what would you do?

continue to pour your money to help him pay ah long till you bankrupt or install a video cam and partition your flat from your neighbour so that ah long just splash red paint on your neighbour and don't bother you too much.....

[corydorus]

The reason last time they were desperate to save Greece is because of self interests.

From the few indications i seen and Euro Banks much better positioned from the ECB money printing, there's a possibility they are ready for a divorce if they do not get full cooperation.

1. ECB Prints
2. ECB official statement that it may not be a problem if greece is out
3. Last minute requirements on Greece
4. China lowered their ratio
5. US out of life supports

I would bet 75% chance that Greece will be out. What i am struggling now is how we can shield ourselves in case there is unexpect.

Cory

[Temperament]

Rally still intact....3150 still looks highly probable. Hang Seng broke 21,000 and is still above it .... but a few things might trip the stock market as stated below. Hopefully these events would be postponed to 2H2012....


Greece won’t see a cent of the great bail-out
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnew...l-out.html

Start of a new year(Chinese). What would it bring? My guess is that by the end of the year, we might be back to square one compared to start of the year or somewhere close to that.

During the first part we could see a strong rally follow by a sharp fall in the latter part. Yes, we might now be in a rally or start of a rally. Need to see volume to confirm....but the global markets' technical chart looks nice and PE ratio of many markets are attractive.....If I remember HK's PE was around 10.....

Hence a rally seems probable....attractive PE and technical charts.

What could derail the rally? 4 possible events. One is the Euro crisis. Next is possible conflict in Middle East. If US strikes or forced to strike Iran, I doubt it would stop after hitting their nuclear facilities. Iran's influence in Middle East is getting stronger esp after US pullout from Iraq. US used to use Iraq to balance Iran but after the invasion of Iraq, Iraq is severely weakened. So if they gonna hit Iran this time, my bet is US would try to go a bit further(hit Iran harder) so as to rebalance the powers in Middle East. Third event I could think of is a major calamity.......maybe a big earthquake in US or China. That would stall China's economic expansion. The last one is a ..... to be filled in......

So my guess is that we might be in a start of a rally from now till one(or more) of these events strike and things will go nasty from then on. A year of VOLATILILTY.

For me, I plan to be zero vested in stock market by the end of the year....maybe sooner....but

Man proposes God disposes

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DKQIooHMGHQ

"For me, I plan to be zero vested in stock market by the end of the year....maybe sooner....but"

Unquote:
Very interesting, i dream of doing what you said above for years but have never try it. i think even in a severe BEAR market, we still can collect some "income" from stock's dividends; especially bank's interest rate at almost zero % now. If the Bear refuses to go away for 3 years....... shall we buy again (presumed after selling every stock) within this period? So that we now own the "same" stocks at a much lower price and may start to collect dividends too. In short, can market timing works? i think it will work to a certain degree for some people---- The professional "Buayas" and people who have spare cash to "burn".
Do you mind sharing your strategy? (i think we have something similar here? No?)

[corydorus]

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/euro-re...2012-02-20

It say 25%-50% chance. Looks like i am more pessimistic.

[Behappyalways]

Nasdaq breakout could herald long term rally

20th February: In the US, the Dow and the Nasdaq are holding well above support. The Nasdaq has made a new decade-high. A rally to 3,200 on the weekly chart looks likely. A huge double bottom gives a chance of a sustained long term rally to the 4,000 region. The S&P 500 is still trapped under strong resistance.

In the EFA zone Japan is rallying impressively. The Nikkei has made a clear bottom with good volume. Emerging market etf, EEM, is a bit lacklustre. But Asian markets are strong although Thailand is facing very strong resistance at 1,150.

http://www.asiachart.com/malaysiasing.html


20th February: Now testing resistance at 21,500. Lots of stocks bottoming. The market has clearly reversed and is now in a clear bull trend.
http://www.asiachart.com/hkchina.html


http://www.asiachart.com/us.html

[Behappyalways]

It could, at least, unless the casino is rigged. Whether a “credit event” is a “default” triggering a payout is determined by the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA), and it seems that the ISDA is owned by the world’s largest banks and hedge funds. That means the house determines whether the house has to pay.
How Greece Could Take Down Wall Street
http://www.commondreams.org/view/2012/02/20


'Restructuring Greece Within the Euro is Illusory'
http://www.spiegel.de/international/euro...10,00.html


Iceland Upgrade Sure Makes Default Look Palatable
http://www.economonitor.com/blog/2012/02...palatable/