Who's in the lead for the Presidential Election?

[newyorkcityboy]

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: <>
Date: Tue, Aug 23, 2011 at 12:10 AM
Subject:
To: kate You <>



Want to get a sense on the likely outcome of the 2011 Singapore
Presidential election?

1) If you are Singaporean, go to: http://www.misterpoll.com/polls/532944

2) Indicate your choice.

3) View results.

4) Send it to as many Singaporean friends as you have.

5) Check back to link to view results.

[koh_52]

Latest update:
TCB and TJS are in the lead.

hehehehe......hope TJS can garnered some votes of the 60%
As for the 40 % .....he will scored 30 percent...
with rest to the rest...

So total he shud see at least...40 %
hope that is enough to be the rest....

Vote with your heart for the heart
to give those black heart a slap on their face...

Sources:
1. listen to man-on-the-street
2. talking to circle and peer
3. from survey in various forums

what your take, any comment?

[wj888]

This type of poll buay zhun one.
Last time I thought the silent majority is bull.
But during last GE's results, I start to believe in the SILENT MAJORITY.. hehehe..

You don't see them in rally or online discussion. But when the results come out... you realised..oh.. they were at home or busy with their own stuff.

[KopiKat]

Warning : Some of the language used here may be politically offensive, so DO NOT continue reading if you don't have any sense of humour.

Using FA (Fundamental Analysis) and data from the recent GE 2011,

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Singapore_g...tion,_2011

and making the assumption that PE 2011 will follow the same trend (using TA) as GE 2011, I have the following conclusion,

1) Hard core anti-PAP voters is around 30% (using the worst Opposition results) ie. these voters will vote for any non-PAP associated candidate. These voters will mostly vote for either TJS or TKL, with TJS getting most of the votes. BUT, the Opposition supporters are also not a very united front and some voters will vote for TCB instead. Firstly, there're bad blood between SDP and SPP. SPP supporters are more likely to vote for TKL or TCB. WP is against the PE and they are not supporting any candidate. WP supporters may not be inclined to vote for TJS as they may want to retain the bragging rights as the dominant Opposition voice. NSP supporters will likely be split among TJS, TCB & TKL as some of them are helping out at various campaigns. I'll not include the RP and SDA as it'd greatly complicate my analysis (some key NSP members were from RP and SDA was closely aligned to SPP). Here, my conclusion (from my crystal ball) is TJS = 15-20%, TCB = 5-10% & TKL = 5-10%

2) Hard core PAP voters is around 35% (using the worst PAP result) ie. these voters will vote for any PAP associated candidate. Most of these voters will go for TT as he was holding a more senior position in the government previously. TCB will have his supporter base from his Ayer Rajah MP days. Here, my crystal ball indicates TT 20-25% & TCB 10-15%

3) The balance 35% will be the independent minded voters (not brain-washed by either PAP or the Opposition) and they will be split amongst the 4 candidates. They will vote in the best qualified candidate using their own unknown and uncommon set of criterias. Here, my crystal ball is a bit fuzzy, so, I pluck the figures from the air of TT = 15%, TCB = 10%, TJS = 5% & TKL = 5%.

Let's total the numbers,

1) TT = 35-40%
2) TCB = 25-35%
3) TJS = 20-25%
4) TKL = 10-15%

Note : Vested in one of the above and my analysis may be biased

[egghead]

So this valuation method is called "sum-of-the-parts"?

[sgd]

Consider the way they played it there was no way TT would have lost. For example assuming the government support was about 30% and they threw it behind TT. The other 70% vote assuming was the "opposition" vote was spread among 3 other candidates. And since they know opnions of voters will vary :

I will think TJS will make the best president, someone else will think TCB and others will like TKL or So there's no way there will ever be any united consensus of 70% on a single candidate - no way & no how - and that's how TT won not because he makes a good president but because the government backed him and they played strategy by spreading out the opposition vote. And it you look at the results it shows my estimate of 30% is about there.

TCB support btw is real because the government didn't endorse him if this was a three horse race the presidency would have gone to him.

[KopiKat]

Here’s my tongue-in-cheek analysis (hard core supporters of any candidate, pls don’t take offense) of the PE2011 results vs forecast,

1) TT : Forecast 35-40% vs Actual 35.19%
The results were at the lower end of the forecast. I’d not expected the wave of hard core PAP supporters who’d decided to give their support to TCB instead. These voters are likely mainly either NSMen or their close friends / family members (grand-parents, parents, kids, wives, girl-friends, mistresses,…) where the combat fit NSMen were unable to either get a deferment (for further studies) or a transfer to a non-combat vocation.

2) TCB : Forecast 25-35% vs Actual 34.85%
The results were at the higher end of the forecast. An old video of TCB where bits of it mentioned his NS days where he had to serve without any deferment and in a combat unit became an instant hit and was widely circulated. TCB became the beneficiary of swing voters who’d have otherwise voted for TT as mentioned in (1). In addition, tales of his Village Doctor days at Ama Keng were also widely told and retold and grew in legendary proportion the more it’s retold. It also helped to swing votes from the borderline supporters of the other candidates.

3) TJS : Forecast 20-25% vs Actual 25.04%
The results were a tad higher than the upper end of the forecast. I’d expected many voters to be turned off by his confrontational behavior and subsequent pouting expression when he was told by the moderator to move on during a forum (the question was on the ISA) that was shown on TV. Apparently I was wrong as many of the younger generations could now better identify with him and became his instant fans as he could confront and pout in a better manner than them even during their best growing-up years.

4) TKL : Forecast 10-15% vs Actual 4.91%
The results were a lot worse than the forecast. It’d appear that TKL lost many supporters when he mentioned that he’d likely retain $500k of his salary for his daily living expenses and donate the rest. Instead of being impressed or touched by his generosity, many of his early supporters were turned off by the fact that TKL needed so much money for normal living expenses when they themselves would never see $500k even if they slave for the rest of their lives. That is, unless they strike Toto. Talking about Toto, there’s also a possibility of a backlash from some of his early supporters who’d bought his Toto Apps and who’d never struck a single prize.

[Big Toe]

Good forecast by KopiKat.

Toe's take

TT, started political career early, highly visible and often associated with our powerful elders. All else aside, these 2 factors probably contributed enough for his victory. Independent from the ruling party? Hmmmm.....

TCB, he does speaks his mind. He does think in sync with the people on the ground and act for us.
(free sunday parking, cpf for education)

TJS, probably acts/thinks too much like he is in GE once again. It's a presidential race.
Did not display the ideal traits/personality for a president.

TKL, unexpected outcome, figured it'll be bad but not this bad. This guy is trying to do his part for the people but somehow it didn't turn out the way he/the people wanted. But seriously, imagine this, TKL giving a speech on the world stage as our president. *shivers*

[touzi]

The things that TKL said during the compaign make more sense to me than those of TCB and definitely TJS. In my opinion, TKL does not deserve to lose his deposit. The fact that he does, reinforce my believe that one's physical appearance does matter many times in life. Sad, but true. We live in a shallow world.

[sgd]

We don't need high profile individuals to be president, first of all a president does not run the country the cabinet does, a president is just a custodian with a few powers so having so such high profile is really no meaning. If we need such high profile then tell me how ex-president SR Nathan who was a senior civil servant qualified in the first place? Before he became president did he handled major state affairs or handled muti-million mega projects? how did sr nathan qualify? If anybody thinks that the prime minister or cabinet has any lack of advisors that they need to consult the President on state matters just look at the army of administrators they have in the civil service.

The only person that I still see that is truly "neutral" is TJS by virtue of the fact that he contested in last election under SDP. No candidate can be 100% perfect but he is 100% neutral.