Neptune Orient Lines (NOL)
03-10-2014, 08:24 PM
Busted or not, the ships stay in the market. It is not like that the ship will disappear from the world when the company is gone.
The oversupply situation has improved greatly. The asset value has not dropped much.
03-10-2014, 08:53 PM
History has proven that shipping is a tough industry. Only extraordinary companies survive.
NOL to me is just like a MAS. I will stay clear. It has been like that since its listing in 1980s. The ships are definitely around but bottomline as allocator of scarce capital, its our choice where we allocate our $. Temasek can do all the national service they want since they have ah gong $ and their forever wrong term horizon. I m accountable to my stakeholders at home. If after almost 6 years of roughing out and bottom is not in sight how can it live up to my 7 years bear and 3 years bull historical experience. BTC Failed CFA GG (03-10-2014, 08:24 PM)freedom Wrote: Busted or not, the ships stay in the market. It is not like that the ship will disappear from the world when the company is gone.
03-10-2014, 09:09 PM
shipping looks like a pretty dangerous industry
many of them have debt/equity levels of over 100% if interest rates goes to 4% in the coming 2-3 years, I think they will be greatly affected, isn't it?
03-10-2014, 11:15 PM
(03-10-2014, 09:09 PM)LLS Wrote: shipping looks like a pretty dangerous industry As long as there is no structural change in the industry, well managed shipping company well survived. Investing in shipping company is different from investing in normal company with predictable earning/revenue as shipping is cyclical in nature. Invest in well managed shipping company with little or no debts. They will be the one expanding during the crisis and trade their ships when the industry is near peak. Cheers
失信于民,何以取信于天下...
06-10-2014, 09:42 PM
01-11-2014, 07:36 AM
Without T-daddy, will be NO OIL LEFT long ago...
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companie...s-of-us23m NOL posts Q3 net loss of US$23m Container shipping still a drag; cost-efficiency slashes YTD core Ebit loss By Malminderjit Singhmsingh@sph.com.sg@MalminderjitBT 1 Nov5:50 AM Singapore NOL Group's dismal financial performance continued as it announced another loss-making quarter on Friday - marking the fourth straight quarter that the group was in the red. The group reported a third-quarter 2014 net loss of US$23 million, compared to the US$20 million
02-11-2014, 10:41 PM
(03-10-2014, 07:30 PM)greengiraffe Wrote: 7 years bear and 3 years bull but enough damage is being done during the 7 years. Without Temasek, banks would have finished off NOL. Why not Rickmers Maritime Trust? It pays a much higher dividend yield compared to SP Shipping
02-11-2014, 11:08 PM
(02-11-2014, 10:41 PM)propertyinvestor Wrote:(03-10-2014, 07:30 PM)greengiraffe Wrote: 7 years bear and 3 years bull but enough damage is being done during the 7 years. Without Temasek, banks would have finished off NOL. Rickmers is a business trust and is in the wrong segment of containers... SP Ship end market is an oligopoly... Needs connection to be in that market for the bluechip end client...
Noticed bulk of views on NOL are pretty negative, as though its a sham coy which I believe its clearly not... NOL has its glory days during the SG independence, then swallowing up a larger APL w Tamesek backing till today. Thus adopting a contrarian approach, I did some research below & hope to shine some lights on this fallen angel...whose salvation may come after Nov 14 (read more below) [vested]
First, lets look at 31 Oct 14, Results Presentation: Group Core EBIT Trend [img] Next, the last NAV was US$0.73 which translates to S$0.92 [Almost 18% of discount aka margin of safety from last close $0.76] Then the Group Commentary "Global economic prospects are uncertain. Persistent oversupply of shipping capacity continues to negatively impact liner freight rates. Nonetheless, the Group’s cost management and operational efficiency program remains on-track. The Group aims to continue to improve its operating performance." Not rosy, but its cost management is on track & clearly shown in the EBIT trend, with the traditionally Q4 & Q1 peak quarters, strenghtening US$, US X'mas & stronger economy, imports along APL will increase compared with past years when US is on "ICU" with QE123, now that QE3 is gone & US continues its recovery... APL will be a prized gem all logistics companies going after... And to the most important point... NOL is selling APL!! http://www.todayonline.com/business/nol-...stics-unit Invitation to bids for APL (min.asking price US$1 billion) have been sent, asking for first round bids by November 2014. Already Korea's CJ Korea Express has signaled its interests, I suspect there's more unannounced bids coming (infer from past week's MACD & Force index divergence, lower price but higher MACD histograms & force index, similar for other indicators). Putting US$1 billion ask price with retrospect to its 31 Oct 14's Q3 Total Assets of US$8.9 billion and Net Assets of US$0.182 billion; the successful sale of APL would results in a bonanza of liquid cash/shares (from purchasing company)... this sale if succeeds will likely results in base scenario "Return of capital/huge dividend" or exchange with new shares (depending on acquiring company's cash/share ratio). This may well be a once in a lifetime cigar opportunity to profit from this conglomerate NOL. TK's 2cents view... |
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