Yangzijiang Financial Holding

[Big Toe]

DI is not improving but the reduction in size have made the rot a whole lot smaller and less significant. Personally, not too worried about DI. At some point in the future, DI will likely turn into a bright spot.

What is more worrying is the maritime fund will likely invest in commercial vessels and if Trump goes ahead to impose tariff each time china made ships call on US ports, ship owners will think twice about placing a new order/leasing/financing. It is very difficult to see how this will play out but once imposed, the next US administration is unlikely to reverse its course.

On a more positive note, the maritime fund is still small, having a large cash hoard enables them to be nimble and flexible. When one door closes, another one will open.

[Bluechipfan]

Business and economic environment become very volatile because of MAGA. I do not envisage good business prospects for non US businesses especially Chinese in the short term. Hopefully YZJF can continue to pay baseline dividend of at least 3 cents for the next few years before things become better. Yield on cost 9%.

[Squirrel]

Glad to see a lively discussion going on still. I guess the gradual conversion of the DI to cash lays to rest the prior discussions on how much these were worth in the first place.

What I have observed in this episode is how much management is focused on creating value for shareholders is really a huge driver of value, and probably a big qualitative factor to look out for.

Within a span of a year or two, the amount of share buy back is unprecedented (from my point of view). The choice to benefit all rather than taking the vehicle private. The discipline to hit targets to diversify its portfolio out of China. The initiatives and drive to increase shareholder value is priceless.

I am not sure how many of you are holders here, but congrats to those who are.

But as I realise nowadays, the exit is tougher than the entry. Hope to see some discussion on that instead. Is it now? Or is it later?

[CY09]

At the current price of 63 cents at 0.6 times price book, the discount is still large in my view.

In a limtan webinar, CEO has guided that this year's earnings will be the same as last financial year despite there might not be as much FOREX gains and government grants. If I read between the lines, it could be due to write backs of their credit allowance as they start to redeem the DIs. Taking CEO Ren true to his words, we can expect 3.4 SG cents again this year. Holding on this stock will be a 5% yielder with book value growing because YZJFH is starting to redeem its China DI and transfer part of the fund to Singapore (YZJFH is trying to maintain a 50% China, 50% Singapore; so as more DI is redeemed and on SG side dividend is disbursed, the China side portfolio gets larger than 50%).

Second it is worth noting that YZJFH only utilised $7.4 million in credit provision when they redeemed $492 million in China DI, so using this as base, it is likely the actual credit provision utilised is 5-8% range. This mean a chance of $110 million in credit allowance being wrote back as it unwinds the portfolio

There are only a handful of stocks that has such a good investment return, the other being United Hampshire US REIT.

So at 63 cents, I wont be selling. My target is 0.8 times price book value, this places it at 90.5 cents where I would start offloading or if good opportunites where I could deploy my capital appears. I am evenly concentrated in both United Hampshire US REIT and YZJFH, so I wont sell YZJFH to go Utd Hampshire otherwise I have to live and die by the sword of another stock (my current experience is Alibaba)