War in Ukraine

[CY09]

In Ukraine case, this is a 150,000 technologically superiors army against their 250,000 soldiers. The Ukraine are also hampered by a separatist force whom they have been fighting for years.

Should Russia attack, it is unlikely Ukraine can survive unless NATO and US armed forces rush in. IMO, kyiv might not even survive in a week given its proximity to Belarus.

[LionFlyer]

Well, we will know soon.

The Winter Olympics are coming to an end. Putin cannot maintain these troop numbers indefinitely on the Ukrainian borders and in Belarus so either they use it, or they return to base.

[BlackCat]

Do long-term investors make long-term (3-5 years and longer) investing decisions based on the potential war in Ukraine? Serious/honest question.

Depends if your portfolio is affected.  I have positions in Russian oil and gas producers.

The way I see it:
  - Russian army can easily take Ukraine.
  - But it must be started before March, due to the winter thaw.  Mud.
  - May be costly for Russia to hold Ukraine.  Like the US in Iraq.  Ukraine has 45 million people.

I don't think Putin wants to invade, he wants some concessions from the west.  We'll know by mid-March.  I think this is peak saber-ratting.  Russian commodity producers have not fallen much, except Gazprom.

Generally, you cannot force the world to stop trading with Russia, commodities are fungible and are now in-demand.  The only way it could be done is if the US said that anyone trading with Russia does not trade with the US.

An interesting note: Russia's GDP per capita is the same as Malaysia's!  Its a poor, corrupt country with a powerful army.

The best video I have found why it is happening and the likely result of a war:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrDJQ15u5_A

[BigFatWhale]

An analysis of a likely full-blown outbreak of war in Ukraine. Our view is that it is unlikely and after all the rhetoric, it is going to end with a deal with NATO.

Click Here for the Full Article:

https://thebigfatwhale.com/russia-war-wi...-for-real/

Source: BBC

[LionFlyer]

Well, missiles are flying and it has apparently started.

[BlueKelah]

Well, missiles are flying and it has apparently started.

Yeah pretty much Russia will capture Ukraine capital this weekend  
Maybe even go and take over poland where the ICBM missles pointing at russia are located. 

I would say China may land some paratroopers in taiwan next week  

end of the USD ?

[LionFlyer]

Question now is time. A prolonged conflict benefits neither Russia or Ukraine.

Putin needs to secure his "victory" and his position weakens day by day as the bodies mount. Even his iron grip has limits. The Ukrainians are faced with a stark choice of making sure the Russians bleed for every inch of their soil at the expense of their own men or surrender to save lives but leaving them under the thumb of the Russians.

I don't think there are any immediate ramifications to the markets for now except volatility. But with Russia isolated politically and increasingly in businesses, the long term looks very uncertain to me.

[CY09]

Taking over Poland will be a tall order for Russia. The NATO treaty will kick in and it will be a fight between US forces and the Russian Army. Poland may have a smaller army than Ukraine, but if they can hold up for 2-3 days, the full force of Western Europe and USA will kick in. And Russia has to put resources in Ukraine to stabilize it in their favour.

As for Taiwan, yes they do look in danger because China now knows the world is all talk and no action in defending non signatories. China just needs to plant foreign agents in Taiwan, cause an uprising of minorities to create the justification of sending peacekeeping forces.

It is pretty sad that as UN is disrupted due to its system, the democratic countries are not united in their fight against Russia. Some countries, while allied to the USA, has opted not to impose sanctions or measures yet on Russia because the UN could not pass any resolution. New Zealand has been an exception where despite its foreign policy preventing it to impose sanctions, the NZ PM has found ways to show NZ's resolve by banning exports and cutting top level diplomatic relations

[BlueKelah]

Question now is time.  A prolonged conflict benefits neither Russia or Ukraine.

Putin needs to secure his "victory" and his position weakens day by day as the bodies mount. Even his iron grip has limits. The Ukrainians are faced with a stark choice of making sure the Russians bleed for every inch of their soil at the expense of their own men or surrender to save lives but leaving them under the thumb of the Russians.

I don't think there are any immediate ramifications to the markets for now except volatility. But with Russia isolated politically and increasingly in businesses, the long term looks very uncertain to me.

Russia is not isolated at all, dont let western media fool you. China is not against Russie at all and yes China is almost half of the worlds economy and a major part of the worlds population. Also Anti-american countries like Iran/Pakistan/afghans/north korea and many previous USSR soviet era countries will support Russia to some extent. Russia is also second top producer oilngas plus 4th top producer of WhEAT! Europe depends on Russia for 40% of gas energy needs. Not to mention Russia amongst top producer of rare earth minerals like cobalt, also copper etc... all the new economy essentials the EV and green energy needs. Sanctions are like LOL... 

I watched some videos on youtube covered by CNN, this one very interesting, 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P4dh8cwHjT0
CNN thought they will interview Ukrainian troops, when they got to airbase, airbase taken over by airdropped russian troops prety easily.
russain troops allow CNN to report whist they are securing perimeter. Doesnt look like a real war, more like a one sided walkover. 

Ukraine claims to have 250k strong army but I am not seeing much of a show of arms and also not much resistance it seems. Russia is already at kiev outskirts within one day of offensive? is the rest of the 250k army running to hide in the western regions, ready to retreat to the european countries for protection? Or have some majority of them decide to switch sides and put on russian colors? After all they seem to be all the same slavic race and Ukrainains all understand Russian though they have their own national language which is quite similar. 

CY09, when USA attack other countries its called liberation, but when other countries do the same its called invasion   Chinese are smart, they will probably do as you suggested, cause internal strife in taiwan then go in with PLA troops to "liberate"

Actually I also wanna clarify, Poland and Czech republic both have the american aegis ashore ballistic missle defense system, i think they were built in 2018 onwards so quite recent. Supposed to be for defence for NATO but both sites are capable of launching tomahawk missiles which can be changed to carry nuclear warheads. They are in range of moscow and other russian cities hence Putin is not pleased. I believe if Russia or China built some missle defence system in Brazil or other south american countries in range of USA cities America will be up in arms as well, much like when there was the "missile crisis" in CUBA. back then Turkey had american nuclear missiles secretly built and aimed at Russia, Russia also made nuclear launch sites in Cuba. in the end both side agreed to remove all the missile sites to prevent a nuclear war. So understandably Putin is so pissed off with the second NATO base with nuclear launch capability being built in romania as well in addition to first one in poland.

Next step is likely invade poland and romania unless USA/NATO removes those launch sites which has always been the original request from Putin.

[LionFlyer]

Well, 18 days after start of this conflict and it is not getting better, but worse. And I'll say the worst is yet to come.

Western companies leaving Ukraine = virtue signaling.

While companies are shutting down or reducing business in Russia, it is hardly because they want to support Ukraine. There are very practical business concerns. With the rouble cratering 80%, any form of collection in rouble (suppliers/customers) are quite literally worthless and no one is the right mind is going to pay out in foreign currency. If you do have money in Russian banks, getting them out of the country is also very difficult. And there is the obvious logistic difficulties which means if your business is dependent on goods from overseas (i.e., McD, Starbucks), that is a non-starter.

The commodities markets has been thrown in a tailspin. Suddenly, all the unfashionable energy mix (non Russian coal/gas, nuclear) post COP26 has become fashionable again and countries that the West used to deem as regressive (Qatar, UAE, Saudi) become their most important ally.

Inflation is going through the roof and this will hamper economic growth this year.