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I do concur with you. Given the large amount of US debt, it is very difficult to keep financing it at high interest prescribed by the fed. They have very expensive national programs and a global policing operation called the US Defense Force to maintain. On top of it, a crippling interest burden will put US in perpetual bankruptcy.
Interest rates cant rise too high because of the above. The natural thought would have been to tweak the QT because it doesn't affect interests too much. What it affects more are the loss making silicon valley companies which are a large democrat supporter base, this is something Biden would not like to do.
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17-07-2022, 06:40 PM
(This post was last modified: 17-07-2022, 06:40 PM by weijian.)
I remember Bill Ackman as 1 of those early ones who called out inflation as a threat.
Much of what is presented is too much for me to understand

So I will just copy/paste some of the conclusions as a shortcut for takeaways..
Pershing Square’s slide deck on inflation and the macro economy
Inflation is Extremely High and Likely to Persist
Once inflation has been quelled, the economy can experience a lengthy and robust expansion similar to the recovery that followed the Volcker-era tightening cycle
https://pscmevents.com/wp-content/upload...dium=email
I am not a certified financial advisor and so nothing of what I say should be construed as financial advice. Please consult a certified financial advisor for advice instead.
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31-08-2022, 03:56 PM
(This post was last modified: 31-08-2022, 03:57 PM by weijian.)
Personally, I think wage inflation is the clearest ground indicator of what is to come.
For job searchers, $20 per hour is the new $15
More job searchers are looking for work that pays $20 an hour, surpassing searches for $15 an hour, according to data released Monday by job search platform Indeed.
https://www.axios.com/2022/08/30/for-job...the-new-15
I am not a certified financial advisor and so nothing of what I say should be construed as financial advice. Please consult a certified financial advisor for advice instead.
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11-09-2022, 08:46 PM
(This post was last modified: 11-09-2022, 08:58 PM by weijian.)
Regardless of where inflation is, avoid expensive stuff, buying cheap stuff (that aren't frauds) and identifying growth compounders probably will always work.
The Stock Market’s Real Inflation Fighters Might Surprise You
Today, just about every brokerage and asset-management firm around is flogging the idea that stocks with plenty of pricing power are the panacea for stagflation.
But the price you pay for pricing power matters—a lot.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/stock-marke...1662130645
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(11-09-2022, 08:46 PM)weijian Wrote: The Stock Market’s Real Inflation Fighters Might Surprise You
Today, just about every brokerage and asset-management firm around is flogging the idea that stocks with plenty of pricing power are the panacea for stagflation.
But the price you pay for pricing power matters—a lot.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/stock-marke...1662130645
This is why long term thinking is important. Companies with pricing power are good investments irregardless of macro.
You would have bought Apple in 2016 (PE = 10) rather than today, for example.
“If you buy a business just because it’s undervalued, then you have to worry about selling it when it reaches its intrinsic value. That’s hard. But if you can buy a few great companies, then you can sit on your ass. That’s a good thing.” - Charlie Munger