China Economic News

[specuvestor]

Just wanted to highlight this weird phenomenon cause maybe STI stocks generally gives high dividend

from 30 Dec 2016 to 17 Dec 2024 STI up 32.0% but total return it's actually up 83.4%

..
The summary is long term real earnings growth falls behind long term GDP growth in many countries.

Intuitively, that seems true. Another example would be Singapore GDP vs STI. Since 2007 we have more than doubled our GDP, but STI has yet to exceed it's 2007 highs. 

Rigorously, identifying a trend like increasing GDP is important, but still inadequate in formulating a complete investment thesis.

[Wildreamz]

Just wanted to highlight this weird phenomenon cause maybe STI stocks generally gives high dividend

from 30 Dec 2016 to 17 Dec 2024 STI up 32.0% but total return it's actually up 83.4%

..
The summary is long term real earnings growth falls behind long term GDP growth in many countries.

Intuitively, that seems true. Another example would be Singapore GDP vs STI. Since 2007 we have more than doubled our GDP, but STI has yet to exceed it's 2007 highs. 

Rigorously, identifying a trend like increasing GDP is important, but still inadequate in formulating a complete investment thesis.

December 2016 happens to be a cyclical low (where most investors were still in the red for about a decade) and December 2024 happens to be a cyclical high. To assess strength of long term correlation between GDP and stock market performance (as per original context of the statement). Would it make more sense to look at longer term correlations (e.g., 10, 20, 30 years)?

[specuvestor]

Incidentally my thoughts on GDP vs stock market is here:
https://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-5133...#pid172436

Just wanted to highlight this weird phenomenon cause maybe STI stocks generally gives high dividend

from 30 Dec 2016 to 17 Dec 2024 STI up 32.0% but total return it's actually up 83.4%

..
The summary is long term real earnings growth falls behind long term GDP growth in many countries.

Intuitively, that seems true. Another example would be Singapore GDP vs STI. Since 2007 we have more than doubled our GDP, but STI has yet to exceed it's 2007 highs. 

Rigorously, identifying a trend like increasing GDP is important, but still inadequate in formulating a complete investment thesis.

December 2016 happens to be a cyclical low (where most investors were still in the red for about a decade) and December 2024 happens to be a cyclical high. To assess strength of long term correlation between GDP and stock market performance (as per original context of the statement). Would it make more sense to look at longer term correlations (e.g., 10, 20, 30 years)?

[weijian]

When we look at a small country like Spore, its GDP forecast starts with a range at the start of the year and gets revised to a different (and tighter) range over the next few quarters. But a huge country like China is able to hit its annual target with precision. I reckon they may have hired some Jack Welch era GE financial engineers to hit their target (and not forecast).

On another note, China's national home prices have probably dropped for 3 years and still going. When we look back at the last huge housing crash - the 2008 US subprime crisis, the US housing market started dropping in 2006 and only bottomed in 2011 - a 5-6 years gap. And if we look further back to the Japs in the late 1980s - they have had deflation for 30 years? The US/Jap markets were busted by Mr Market, while the Chinese market was busted by their own Regulator. I would presume that the Chinese are more than capable to learn from history, since for a start, they already have 3000years of history to learn from.

China’s economy grew 5% in 2024, surpasses forecasts on stimulus push

For the full-year 2024, the world’s second-largest economy grew 5.0 per cent, data from the National Bureau of Statistics data showed on Friday, meeting the government’s annual growth target of around 5 per cent. Analysts had forecast 4.9 per cent growth.

The economy grew 5.4 per cent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, significantly beating analysts’ expectations and marking the quickest since the second quarter of 2023.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/interna...mulus-push