Apple Inc.

[weijian]

Much has been said about Apple's service revenue, which has expanded by leaps and bounds over the last 5-7years.

A leading indicator for service revenue increases, would be increase in hardware sales that builds the "infrastructure" to provide future services. A growing ecosystem increases the sticky-ness and scalability of service revenue. So if hardware sales start to reduce, will this mean a deceleration/reduction in service revenue down the road?

Huawei profit surges 564% as it eclipses Apple in China

Sales in the first quarter rose 37 per cent to 178.5 billion yuan. The company did not provide a sales breakdown for various business segments in its filing.

As a stark contrast, Apple’s iPhone sales in China fell 19 per cent during the March quarter, Counterpoint estimated.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/compani...pple-china

[Behappyalways]

A good watch


'24.09.17【豐富│東南西北龍鳳配】Pt.3 華為的折疊機，單純就只是要羞辱「蘋果」？
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=NqQNOaihNU4&t=917s

[weijian]

The Oracle of Omaha (and his team) is not always right in terms of decision making. An easy one was his favorable assessment of Wells Fargo and its people, before they were found to be hacking poor people's money.

But generally, he is overwhelmingly right after money-weighting all the decisions. If I half my biggest stake in my portfolio, it means something. So when Buffett and Co halves theirs, it surely means something. And my guess is that the official reason/s is just been his diplomatic self of "praise by name, criticise by category".

In recent years, due to a conflux of factors like protectionism or simply the "Innovator's Dilemma" at work, foreign champions of China in their categories of automotive, (overpriced) coffee drinks and probably now smartphones are finding that the "going is getting tough(er and tougher)".

Of course, China's market breadth is huge as much as it is deep. Once upon a time, Danone got scr*wed by its PRC gf Wahaha Group but came back wiser selling formula milk over drinks. Definitely more sticky as we (like middle class) prioritize what we put into our newborn babies' mouth over our own. However after many moons, it seems the tide is turning again. I also read that in recent times, certain US champions like Sam's Club (Walmart) and Costco are starting to strive in China.

Apple is definitely still going to be successful and have the best margins (and profit) of all handphone brands, but the days of gullible Chinese youths trading their kidney for an Iphone are probably over. And if history is any guide, the odds are against it in this part of the world.

[Behappyalways]

There was this lady that I follow who said that she gets worried when all her trades are making money. I guess that's when the market is in a bubble. I met a lot of these people recently.....for example a grab driver in Johor who used to work as a bus driver in Singapore who claimed ( honestly I believe him) that all his trades are profit making.

All of us make mistakes and I am sure Warren still do. But with hardwork and experience one can reduce his mistakes while enhancing his profits when he got it right. I am still nursing my big loss on a trade I did years ago but I learnt from the mistake what is my niche and what is not my niche and only strike when the odds are deeply in your favour.

Apple has already past it's prime. It is no longer an innovative company especially after Steve Jobs. It has given up on the Apple car project. It is just adding this and that to the iPhone. In Chinese we call it 炒冷饭. It will still be around for some time though especially when they keep up with their advertising...,

[weijian]

Apple has already past it's prime. It is no longer an innovative company especially after Steve Jobs. It has given up on the Apple car project. It is just adding this and that to the iPhone. In Chinese we call it 炒冷饭. It will still be around for some time though especially  when they keep up with their advertising...,

Let's take a quick look at its share price (taken from yahoo finance, excluding dividends which Apple started paying in recent times)

-Steve Jobs return to Apple in 1997 (end 1997 share price=0.12usd)
-Steve Jobs died in 2011 (end 2011 share price=15usd) - 833% annual CAGR since he returned
-Current share price (2024~225usd) - 107% annual CAGR since he died

Based on my rough calculations above, it is a fact that Apple's share price underperformed after Jobs passed away, compared to when he at the helm. So it is probably true that Apple is "past its prime".

However, I am pretty sure that no one will be complaining eating cold fried rice with ~100% returns per year. Value investing practitioners like to crow that "a good investment and a good company are different things". Along the same principle - an innovative company and good investment are different things too.

I don't use an iPhone (too expensive) and so I can't appreciate why scores of people queue outside for a new launch. But the queue means something, as much as I can't appreciate Taylor Swift's concerts but the way the tickets sold out also means something. When the facts change, I change my bias.

P.S. Btw, Uncle Roger gives thumbs up since fried rice needs cold rice.