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CANSI boss warns yard downturn will be prolonged
Key points:
1) In china,“The elimination of small and low-tech yards is inevitable,” said the shipbuilding supremo.
2) Wang reckoned newbuild prices have finally bottomed out but with the shipping industry showing “no sign of recovery” it will take another two to three years before shipbuilders are back in healthy territory. For the full wide ranging article click below
http://www.maritime-ceo.com/news_content...id=3w3c171
At least he is more bullish than YZJ's Ren, who said at least 5 yearsto turnaround
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22-08-2013, 10:20 PM
(This post was last modified: 22-08-2013, 10:28 PM by Greenrookie.)
New policy to support ‘capable’ shipyards
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Beijing: Amid the harsh shipbuilding market, the Chinese government will offer favourable tax policies and technical assistance to ‘capable’ shipyards to help them develop greener ships.
“The capable shipyards are to receive tax incentives and technical support for greener ship ships,” Chen Bin, official from the National Development and Reform Commission said.
The development of offshore engineering products will be treated as a priority as well to diversify the Chinese shipyards’ products, Chen added. [22/08/13]
http://www.sinoshipnews.com/news_content...d=3w3c1747
NDRC to ban new shipbuilding capacity Thursday, 22 August 2013 | 10:00 NDRC to ban new shipbuilding capacity
The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has announced that it will start to ban new shipbuilding capacity in order to resolve the overcapacity problem in the industry. It has asked all the relevant authorities not to give approvals to any new infrastructure project of shipbuilding, ship repair and offshore equipment.
An official at NDRC said it is very crucial to curb new shipbuilding capacity in this severe market situation, and the move will facilitate the update and transformation of the shipbuilding industry.
Source: Sino Ship News
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If YZJ is not considered as "capable", (first to build 10000Teu containers, most profitable), then National Development and Reform Commission is corrupt.
Basically the barrier of entry is not just raised by closed domestically. The next step is let the smaller yards be absorbed or die of startvation
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Some interesting articles:
http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/News...1d6cdc756f
http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/News...4e215e9126
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It seems that orderbook has fallen drastically and deliveries over the next few years will fall rather drastically. If demand hold up, economies stable and BDI continue to turn north, perhaps we need not five years to move out of the dumdrolds
life goes in cycles, predictable yet uncontrollable; just like the markets, but markets give you a second chance
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Baltic Dry Index rises , to 1,478 points , up 126 Monday
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Wow... 
The mood for shipping stocks will continue to be good....
Hope its not a false dawn.. again....
life goes in cycles, predictable yet uncontrollable; just like the markets, but markets give you a second chance
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probably a false dawn again....
Supply situation will only "improve" from 2014 onwards...
Vested
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I think key to watch is shipping lanes around middle east and the uneasiness in Suez Canal
Before you speak, listen. Before you write, think. Before you spend, earn. Before you invest, investigate. Before you criticize, wait. Before you pray, forgive. Before you quit, try. Before you retire, save. Before you die, give. –William A. Ward
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(10-09-2013, 11:06 AM)specuvestor Wrote: I think key to watch is shipping lanes around middle east and the uneasiness in Suez Canal
Shipping lanes around middle east are too remote to watch... 
Alternative? How about import/export numbers in Asia countries?
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rerouting or delay in shipping will increase Asia/ Europe rates and if prolonged enough will spillover to intra-asia and pacific rates when resources are reallocated
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(10-09-2013, 11:58 AM)specuvestor Wrote: rerouting or delay in shipping will increase Asia/ Europe rates and if prolonged enough will spillover to intra-asia and pacific rates when resources are reallocated
Hmm good for the rates in the short term, but will it be good for the economies? The high rate will be used to compensated the higher costs and risks, will shippers really benefits in such a scenario?
life goes in cycles, predictable yet uncontrollable; just like the markets, but markets give you a second chance
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Congested ports, slow steaming, rerouting, etc reduces the supply of shippers. Supply shock should be more positive to shippers rather than cost drivers like oil price increase.
Too complex to say for the economies when input costs increase
Before you speak, listen. Before you write, think. Before you spend, earn. Before you invest, investigate. Before you criticize, wait. Before you pray, forgive. Before you quit, try. Before you retire, save. Before you die, give. –William A. Ward
Think Asset-Business-Structure (ABS)
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