Are companies pivoting to SOA to privatize through an "all or nothing outcome" to avoid a "loss of free float but unable to delist" scenario?
So the external REIT manager and its sibling Times Properties have jointly given the reasons for wanting to delist the REIT. It is mentioned that its Orchard Road neighbors are undergoing AEI, will become strong future competitors and that is true. While I am not a retail czar, but I am pretty sure if your neighbors are better/stronger, the entire locale will become more attractive. In other words, everyone will probably enjoy an expanding pie than sharing one that doesn't change in size.
It is also mentioned that international luxury spending post pandemic is a quarter below 2019 peak. That doesn't even pass the smell test! LVMH with its 80+ Maisons, had a revenue of ~85bil euros in the last 2 FYs and that is 60% above its FY19 revenue of 53bil euros.
Finally a figure of 300-600mil is touted as the total CAPEX required for an AEI, derived based on Paragon's gross floor area. This translates to a proforma ~10-40% cut in DPU and will surely spook minorities I suppose.
CUSCADEN PEAK AND PARAGON REIT JOINTLY ANNOUNCE PROPOSED SCHEME OF ARRANGEMENT TO PRIVATISE PARAGON REIT
However, Paragon’s premier upscale status is being challenged by malls undergoing major upgrades and upcoming redevelopments in the surrounding catchment (e.g. Ming Arcade, Tanglin Shopping Centre, Forum The Shopping Mall, voco Orchard Singapore, and HPL House), which are expected to significantly ramp up competition once completed.
In addition to these competitive pressures, a persistent slowdown in luxury spending postpandemic, with international luxury spending at 74%3 of its 2019 peak, has also weighed on Paragon’s performance.
Illustratively, if PARAGON REIT undertook a Potential AEI, and (a) incurred capital expenditure between S$300 million and S$600 million (fully debt-funded and fully drawn down in FY2024 at an all-in finance cost of 4.4%), and (b) experienced a decrease in Paragon’s NPI of between 10% and 40% for FY2024 due to potential business disruptions, this would collectively result in a decrease in net property income and an increase in interest expenses, and consequently reduce distributable income and DPU for PARAGON REIT.
https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/Privatisa...eID=832663