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(12-12-2015, 03:43 PM)CY09 Wrote: Still bearish on CCT and office REITS, Guoco Tower and Marina One addition of supply are my key concerns.
Purchase of remaining 60% stake of capitagreen at 1.011 Bil will push it to higher gearing. Hopefully CCT will be able to re negotiate with Capland for a cheaper purchase price given sliding office rents.
all these asset mgrs all self-interest one. The only time they sold the assets cheaper is when they made a mistake..hahah
"... but quitting while you're ahead is not the same as quitting." - Quote from the movie American Gangster
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27-12-2015, 11:44 AM
(This post was last modified: 27-12-2015, 12:08 PM by CY09.
Edit Reason: Edits
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It's pretty amazing how capitaland and its valuers are valuing the properties. Using URA's data for June 2012 to June 2015 as a comparison, the retail property price index has risen by 5.4%. Remarkably, CapitaMall Trust's s$ per square feet for NLA across its portfolio have risen by 6%-20% (average approx 12%) across the same period!
To add on, most of these properties (except Plaza Singapura) are on 99 year leasehold which means since then, they have lost 3 years of their lease, yet their values rose way faster than national average. Pretty confused how CMT's valuers are doing their calculation and if valuation have been appropriately done.
CapitaMall Trust Property value (end 2012), PDF Page 21
http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/CMTMacqA...leID=60504
CapitaMall Trust Property value (end June 2015), PDF Page 11
http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/20151130...eID=380348
URA's 2Q 2012 index
https://www.ura.gov.sg/uol/media-room/ne...-79a3.ashx
URA 2Q 2015 index
https://www.ura.gov.sg/uol/media-room/ne...15-39.aspx
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(27-12-2015, 11:44 AM)CY09 Wrote: It's pretty amazing how capitaland and its valuers are valuing the properties. Using URA's data for end 2012 to June 2015 as a comparison, the retail property price index has risen by 5.4%. Remarkably, CapitaMall Trust's s$ per square feet for NLA across its portfolio have risen by 6%-20% (average approx 12%) across the same period!
To add on, most of these properties (except Plaza Singapura) are on 99 year leasehold which means since then, they have lost 2.5 years of their lease, yet their values rose way faster than national average. Pretty confused how CMT's valuers are doing their calculation and if valuation have been appropriately done.
CapitaMall Trust Property value (end 2012), PDF Page 21
http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/CMTMacqA...leID=60504
CapitaMall Trust Property value (end June 2015), PDF Page 11
http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/20151130...eID=380348
URA's end 2012 index
https://www.ura.gov.sg/uol/media-room/ne...-06a1.ashx
URA 2Q 2015 index
https://www.ura.gov.sg/uol/media-room/ne...15-39.aspx
1. Capitaland pays the valuers
2. In my opinion Capitaland malls are much better managed than the average mall
3. Capitaland has pricing power
4. Capitaland has lower than average cost of capital
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28-12-2015, 07:57 AM
(This post was last modified: 28-12-2015, 08:08 AM by gzbkel.)
(27-12-2015, 11:44 AM)CY09 Wrote: It's pretty amazing how capitaland and its valuers are valuing the properties. Using URA's data for June 2012 to June 2015 as a comparison, the retail property price index has risen by 5.4%. Remarkably, CapitaMall Trust's s$ per square feet for NLA across its portfolio have risen by 6%-20% (average approx 12%) across the same period!
To add on, most of these properties (except Plaza Singapura) are on 99 year leasehold which means since then, they have lost 3 years of their lease, yet their values rose way faster than national average. Pretty confused how CMT's valuers are doing their calculation and if valuation have been appropriately done.
CapitaMall Trust Property value (end 2012), PDF Page 21
http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/CMTMacqA...leID=60504
CapitaMall Trust Property value (end June 2015), PDF Page 11
http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/20151130...eID=380348
URA's 2Q 2012 index
https://www.ura.gov.sg/uol/media-room/ne...-79a3.ashx
URA 2Q 2015 index
https://www.ura.gov.sg/uol/media-room/ne...15-39.aspx
I think valuation is also a function of earning power.
According to AR2012, investment properties is 8191 million, NPI is 445 million, so property yield is 5.44%.
According to AR2014, investment properties is 7510 million, NPI is 448 million, so property yield is 5.97%.
I would not say that valuation is unreasonable if you compare yield of 2014 with 2012. (2015 AR not out yet)
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20-01-2016, 08:36 AM
(This post was last modified: 20-01-2016, 08:37 AM by CY09.
Edit Reason: edits
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CCT has delivered a rather impressive results which shows average office rents rising due to older leases being renewed. DPU and NAV has increased. Gearing is still below 30% and slightly increased inspite of rise in NAV. Yield about 6.3%
What is intriguing is Dec 15 cap rate has not increased and they have reduced CCT's discount rate despite the rising interest rate environment and office space downturn. It seems their valuers are optimistic of the property value which will withstand the down turn in office segment.* Unable to compare their cap and discount rate table against other REITS as they are the only one who bravely publishes it and is easy to find
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^^ Clearly the market don't share the same optimism about the property valuation, since it is trading at a big discount to NAV.
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FTSE Russell announces that there will be one change to the constituents of the Straits Times Index, following the March quarterly review. CapitaLand Commercial Trust will be added to the Index, while Noble Group will be removed. The changes take effect at the start of business on 21 March 2016.
The STI reserve list, comprising the five highest ranking nonconstituents of the STI by market capitalisation, will be (in order of size) Suntec REIT, Neptune Orient Lines, First Resources Ltd., Singapore Post Ltd and Keppel REIT.
Specuvestor: Asset - Business - Structure.
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23-05-2016, 07:57 AM
(This post was last modified: 23-05-2016, 12:30 PM by CY09.
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http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/Gracious...eID=406041
Its a very expensive deal for CCT to take out part of capitaland's stake in capitagreen, CCT will have to fork out $393 Mil cash and assume additional $594 Mil of loans. The agreed value for capitagreen is in the region of $1.6 bil, not far from what we have been guessing.il
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24-05-2016, 11:11 AM
(This post was last modified: 24-05-2016, 11:11 AM by Dividend Knight.)
(23-05-2016, 07:57 AM)CY09 Wrote: http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/Gracious...eID=406041
Its a very expensive deal for CCT to take out part of capitaland's stake in capitagreen, CCT will have to fork out $393 Mil cash and assume additional $594 Mil of loans. The agreed value for capitagreen is in the region of $1.6 bil, not far from what we have been guessing.il
It seems like Capitaland got a better deal out of it, as is usually the case when a sponsor inject an asset into a REIT.
The silver lining is that this acquisition is at least slightly DPU accretive and the CapitaGreen building is top quality.
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24-05-2016, 06:46 PM
(This post was last modified: 24-05-2016, 07:28 PM by AQ..)
Just 57yrs left on land tenure and initial NPI yield of 3.2% => effective real yield after depreciation is rather low.
(although the NPI yield will prob be higher after fit-out and occupancy normalises)
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