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KopiKat Wrote:
I also have REITs but they keep me constantly in a state of high alert and anxiety as I don't like to be surprised by any sudden Equity Rights Issues where either I have to cough up extra cash or see my DPU get diluted, especially in times of severe financial crisis.
Unquote:
i have learned not long ago from LippoMall rights issue that every company's rights issue is a golden opportunity to make money or cut your losses. It all depends on how you look at rights issue. So i now more or less love rights issue. Don't ask me how because i know it's a "speculation" in taking a position in rights issue. There is no guarantee  
WB:-
1) Rule # 1, do not lose money.
2) Rule # 2, refer to # 1.
3) Not until you can manage your emotions, you can manage your money.
Truism of Investments.
A) Buying a security is buying RISK not Return
B) You can control RISK (to a certain level, hopefully only.) But definitely not the outcome of the Return.
NB:-
My signature is meant for psychoing myself. No offence to anyone. i am trying not to lose money unnecessary anymore.
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14-04-2012, 11:27 AM
(This post was last modified: 15-04-2012, 01:53 PM by Some-one.)
While I do not disagree that SPH is buying properties to boost their income, I do not quite understand why no one talks about its Meetings, Incentives, Conferencing, Exhibition (MICE )business. In the last FY, its MICE business happens to be the largest contributor for its revenue (In terms of percentage growth) and I foresee this is a growth path for SPH. They have been acquiring exhibition companies. Singapore is placing itself as a hub for MICE businesses. Although it is small now but as Singapore grew, the MICE would be a good revenue generator for SPH.
Results for Year Ended August 31 2011
Operating revenue
Newspaper and Magazine 1,013,285 974,125 4.0
Property 167,884 356,095 (52.9)
Others 69,803 50,851 37.3
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(14-04-2012, 10:35 AM)Musicwhiz Wrote: I checked SPH's BS as at Feb 29, 2012; and debt stood at $1b, while cash was $244m. Finance costs dipped quite a bit due to the repayment of some LT debt of about $100m, but debt levels are still fairly high and gross debt/equity stands at about 50%. Assuming they were to continue their property developments, they would need more funds and therefore, I foresee that they would either gear up more (i.e. higher finance costs) or pay out less dividends (as FCF would be channelled for such developments). Either way, it is going to increase their costs and stifle their cash flows.
I remembered you made the same analysis and comment some time back (perhaps as far back as during Clementi Mall purchase time?). Fortunately for SPH shareholders, that'd not happened yet. Altho' Debts are higher than usual (record high was Aug10 - Q4 @ $1.38B) and Cash is lower than usual, they still have $440M tucked into Short Term Investments and $364M in Long Term Investments. I guess if the cost of borrowings is too high, they can always liquidate some some these investments.
I think I'll stop 'promoting' the merits of SPH as I'm afraid some may actually be influenced to take on a new position at current prices. I'm actually half wearing my 'Trading' hat now as per what I'd described many many posts back on mu SPH 'strategy'.
Temperament Wrote:i have learned not long ago from LippoMall rights issue that every company's rights issue is a golden opportunity to make money or cut your losses. It all depends on how you look at rights issue. So i now more or less love rights issue. Don't ask me how because i know it's a "speculation" in taking a position in rights issue. There is no guarantee
I do have some tricks up my sleeve on REITs rights issues (which I'd described before somewhere in this forum universe). It includes 'Arbitraging' by selling existing Shares and buying the Rights, keeping till xd before selling and then applying for full + excess rights,.. all depending on the prices. BUT, I still don't like to have such 'surprises' especially during crisis. Further, to make any meaningful amount, you need free cash. IMO, time and $$ is better spent to look for bargains during such times. 
Some-one Wrote:While I do not disagree that SPH is buying properties to boost their income, I do not quite understand why no one talks about its Meetings, Incentives, Conferencing, Exhibition (MICE )business. In the last FY, its MICE business happens to be the largest contributor for its revenue and I foresee this is a growth path for SPH. They have been acquiring exhibition companies. Singapore is placing itself as a hub for MICE businesses. Although it is small now but as Singapore grew, the MICE would be a good revenue generator for SPH.
Results for Year Ended August 31 2011
Operating revenue
Newspaper and Magazine 1,013,285 974,125 4.0
Property 167,884 356,095 (52.9)
Others 69,803 50,851 37.3
I think 'Others' include also 'Investment' income mainly? I din check.
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Not only am i trying to sell some of my SPH, i have sold quite a lot of my other holdings. Some at a loss. So this year i will be losing out (current situation) in dividends income. Who really knows what is going to happen next?
There is always a favourable opportunity waiting for you to buy. To sell is not so easy. Are you willing to sell at a loss? The highest i had sold at a loss was about +30K in a S CHIP speculation. Now i know i did the right thing. The S CHIP company has been suspended not long after i have sold. Thank God, i sold. If not i would lose more than double the amount. Amen.
NB:
Buying is very easy. Selling is very difficult. So take your time to buy-No hurry. No sweat. O. K.
Shalom.
WB:-
1) Rule # 1, do not lose money.
2) Rule # 2, refer to # 1.
3) Not until you can manage your emotions, you can manage your money.
Truism of Investments.
A) Buying a security is buying RISK not Return
B) You can control RISK (to a certain level, hopefully only.) But definitely not the outcome of the Return.
NB:-
My signature is meant for psychoing myself. No offence to anyone. i am trying not to lose money unnecessary anymore.
Posts: 293
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14-04-2012, 06:29 PM
(This post was last modified: 14-04-2012, 06:30 PM by Some-one.)
(14-04-2012, 11:36 AM)KopiKat Wrote: Some-one Wrote:While I do not disagree that SPH is buying properties to boost their income, I do not quite understand why no one talks about its Meetings, Incentives, Conferencing, Exhibition (MICE )business. In the last FY, its MICE business happens to be the largest contributor for its revenue and I foresee this is a growth path for SPH. They have been acquiring exhibition companies. Singapore is placing itself as a hub for MICE businesses. Although it is small now but as Singapore grew, the MICE would be a good revenue generator for SPH.
Results for Year Ended August 31 2011
Operating revenue
Newspaper and Magazine 1,013,285 974,125 4.0
Property 167,884 356,095 (52.9)
Others 69,803 50,851 37.3
I think 'Others' include also 'Investment' income mainly? I din check.
It's mainly generated from their exhibition business. In the future, if they spin off their MICE business, it might be good news for shareholders.
Operating revenue from the Group’s other businesses improved by 37.3% to S$69.8
million. The increase was driven by income from the exhibitions business for newly
acquired and other shows, and higher revenue from online and other media
businesses.
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14-04-2012, 06:42 PM
(This post was last modified: 14-04-2012, 06:42 PM by freedom.)
(14-04-2012, 06:29 PM)Some-one Wrote: (14-04-2012, 11:36 AM)KopiKat Wrote: Some-one Wrote:While I do not disagree that SPH is buying properties to boost their income, I do not quite understand why no one talks about its Meetings, Incentives, Conferencing, Exhibition (MICE )business. In the last FY, its MICE business happens to be the largest contributor for its revenue and I foresee this is a growth path for SPH. They have been acquiring exhibition companies. Singapore is placing itself as a hub for MICE businesses. Although it is small now but as Singapore grew, the MICE would be a good revenue generator for SPH.
Results for Year Ended August 31 2011
Operating revenue
Newspaper and Magazine 1,013,285 974,125 4.0
Property 167,884 356,095 (52.9)
Others 69,803 50,851 37.3
I think 'Others' include also 'Investment' income mainly? I din check.
It's mainly generated from their exhibition business. In the future, if they spin off their MICE business, it might be good news for shareholders.
Operating revenue from the Group’s other businesses improved by 37.3% to S$69.8
million. The increase was driven by income from the exhibitions business for newly
acquired and other shows, and higher revenue from online and other media
businesses.
the increase was driven by MICE does not mean most of it is from MICE. It merely tells that out of almost 20 million, more are from MICE and online and other media business.
another thing, QUOTE In the last FY, its MICE business happens to be the largest contributor for its revenue and I foresee this is a growth path for SPH. UNQUOTE Can elaborate more? I don't see MICE business is anywhere near the largest contributor for its revenue.
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(14-04-2012, 09:44 AM)Musicwhiz Wrote: Would SPH shareholders be happy about them doing that? After all, SPH is starting to depart from their "core" business of advertising and printing/publishing.
I am a shareholder, if SPH management starting to focus on "core" biz with high capital expense, i will divest and run.
The scenario that i would like to see are
1. Maintain the "core" biz as cash cow with minimum capital expense. The cow is currently contributing approx. 365 mils PBT annually and with minimum capital expense.
2. Continue to return 80% of profit to shareholder, while keeping 20% as retained profit for investment into good "new" biz, i.e. the star biz. Presently it had already accumulated 1.3 bil retained profit, and invested into the star biz
3. Continue to look for star biz which can bring in growth. The current star biz like the mall rental biz and MICE biz etc
4. The cash accumulated will also put into good investment (both long and short term). Presently it has 364 mils long term investment, and 440 mils short term investment, on good companies e.g. Starhub, M1 and OpenNet etc.
Will continue to monitor...
“夏则资皮，冬则资纱，旱则资船，水则资车” - 范蠡
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i wonder if its cheap now. the enterprise value is like 6999 million while the ebitda is around 450 mil. 15 times ev/ebitda?
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(14-04-2012, 06:42 PM)freedom Wrote: another thing, QUOTE In the last FY, its MICE business happens to be the largest contributor for its revenue and I foresee this is a growth path for SPH. UNQUOTE Can elaborate more? I don't see MICE business is anywhere near the largest contributor for its revenue.
I assume it mean MICE biz is the largest contributor, with respect of % growth
For your info, although "other" carried a revenue of 70 mils, but PBT is at lost. But it had improved the lose by 14 mils over last year, likely due to MICE profit
“夏则资皮，冬则资纱，旱则资船，水则资车” - 范蠡
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even in term of % of growth, it is debatable whether the growth is only from MICE. as it says "the increase was driven by income from the exhibitions business for newly acquired and other shows, and higher revenue from online and other media businesses."
my guess is the loss probably due to unrealized loss in investment?
anyway, MICE business should be small enough that SPH does not separate it from the remaining business.
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