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17-09-2024, 05:32 PM
Interesting that there isn't any Moutai thread in this forum.
Considering its brand strength and cash generating power, I reckon its current price of RM1300 with forward PE of about 20 is rather attractive.
Latest 2024-H1 report:
https://static.sse.com.cn/disclosure/lis...9_1N8C.pdf
And of course I am well aware of the concerns and hence the 3 years low price.
Some of the concerns are:
1) Lower demand due to weak consumer sentiments in China and overall pessimistic chinese expectation of future growth (or the lack of).
2) Oversupply at distribution channels or those stocks held by speculators who now dumping as Moutai product retail price going down.
3) Youngsters or new generations not drinking much!
All concerns I am sort of agree and my biggest concern is on the oversupply and how long it takes to clear the stocks.
I noticed moutai products visibly available in Changi & BKK airports which for quite a long times I never really notice, I guess the Management trying to channel the oversupply to Southeast asia.
But again, my reason to invest in Moutai is border at dumb!
Is Moutai brand still strong? Is there any preferences of consumer on Moutai baijiu?
Will it do well in next 10 years?
My answer to those question is a YES and hence with PE of 20, I think it's attractive, until proven otherwise, I am likely to hold this for a very very long while!
Considering its brand strength and cash generating power, I reckon its current price of RM1300 with forward PE of about 20 is rather attractive.
Latest 2024-H1 report:
https://static.sse.com.cn/disclosure/lis...9_1N8C.pdf
And of course I am well aware of the concerns and hence the 3 years low price.
Some of the concerns are:
1) Lower demand due to weak consumer sentiments in China and overall pessimistic chinese expectation of future growth (or the lack of).
2) Oversupply at distribution channels or those stocks held by speculators who now dumping as Moutai product retail price going down.
3) Youngsters or new generations not drinking much!
All concerns I am sort of agree and my biggest concern is on the oversupply and how long it takes to clear the stocks.
I noticed moutai products visibly available in Changi & BKK airports which for quite a long times I never really notice, I guess the Management trying to channel the oversupply to Southeast asia.
But again, my reason to invest in Moutai is border at dumb!
Is Moutai brand still strong? Is there any preferences of consumer on Moutai baijiu?
Will it do well in next 10 years?
My answer to those question is a YES and hence with PE of 20, I think it's attractive, until proven otherwise, I am likely to hold this for a very very long while!
My views are your Gilbert & Sullivan's:
"The flowers that bloom in the spring, have nothing to do with the case".
"The flowers that bloom in the spring, have nothing to do with the case".