Covid-19

[weijian]

It has to be after Nov2022 when President Xi confirms his unprecedented 3rd term in office.

We could argue that China doesn't need the world - Its domestic economy is almost self sufficient. But it would be hard to argue that the world needs China, especially the Chinese consumer for the many Asian countries around her periphery. The current situation is a roll back to the medieval times of the great Ming/early Qing dynasties, isn't it?

How Long Can China Chase Covid Zero? Here’s What the Experts Say

“My personal estimate is China won’t reopen for another year,” said Chen Zhengming, an epidemiology professor at the University of Oxford.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...emium-asia

[specuvestor]

Nov 2021 the politburo will plan the agenda for NPC 2022 which will showcase why Xi is the chosen one. Hence the slew of policies since CCP centennial

After NPC 2022 his position would be confirmed unless something drastic happened between then to Nov 2022. Nov 2022 should have been important cause traditionally that’s when they announce the next 2X5 years successor.

[weijian]

Is there actually a 2x5 year successor next year?

A 2x5 year successor planned in next year, means that Xi will be doing a max 3 terms. He is 68yr old this year and by the end of the 3rd, he would be mid 70s. A 4th term means he will be 80 by the time he steps down. It is not unusual for men of such ages to serve in office around our region but it might still be a tad too much for China. Great Chinese emperors rule for decades but they started out earlier.

So yes, there probably will be a 2x5 year successor team next year.

[specuvestor]

He is unveiling his manifesto or new doctrine / historical resolution to assert that he is the chosen one

He might not step down.

[weijian]

The Gov is fighting the wrong war, but it is only doing the things that gets it re-elected. 

Some of the initial anecdotal evidence also seems to suggest that omicron could actually be a god-send for us, ie. it is going to be more infectious but less deadly than Delta. So, it could actually wipe out Delta while keep collateral damage (to us) at a minimal.

THE GOVERNMENT IS STILL FIGHTING THE WRONG WAR ON COVID-19

With luck, omicron will prove to be not only more infectious but also milder than delta. According to the doctor who diagnosed it, omicron “presents mild disease with symptoms being sore muscles and tiredness for a day or two… They might have a slight cough.” This, plus the effect of the vaccines, means that Britain’s policy of opening up in July, defying the modellers’ apocalyptic obsessions, proved sensible. The virus did not spiral out of control, or overwhelm the NHS, but a series of small waves came and went, as society inched towards an endemic truce with the enemy.

https://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/fi...-on-covid/

[weijian]

It looks like Omicron will overtake Delta as the dominant strain soon. Governments around the world will also probably mandate that been fully vaccinated means "you need to take a 3rd shot".

Britain says Omicron accounts for 40% of London infections

Though Javid said there had been no deaths yet confirmed in England and just 10 people were hospitalised in England with the variant, he said Omicron was probably behind around 40 per cent of infections in London.

He said that while symptoms of the variant might be milder, its swift spread meant that unless the government acted then the health service could be overwhelmed.

"Even when a virus is mild, a small percentage of people from a very large number still can equal a high number of hospitalizations," Javid said.

"Two doses are not enough, but three doses still provide excellent protection against symptomatic infection," he said.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/governm...infections

[opmi]

Govts always use these news (Omnicron, MIS-C) to nudge people to do thing, (vaxx, booster, 5-11 vaxx)

[CY09]

Those who know a bit of biology will know that the intention of viruses is to profligate themselves. So over time, they will evolve to milder variants while maintain their infectiousness. The Omicron variant is exhibiting such a behavior now, less deadly but more transmissive.

At times like this, instead of worrying about it, countries should learn to open up part by part and get their people to be infected by it. This allows natural immunity and also with a lower hospitalization rate.

This wards off the need to be continuously vaccinated by MRNA vaccines. I think this is the aim of Boris Johnson Govt as well as some EU nations, let the omicron infection go through while ensuring hospitalisation does not hit the roof, people gain natural immunity and wane off the need to be constantly vaccinated by Pfizer/Moderna whose MRNA vaccines has a limited shelf life

[specuvestor]

Last year experts were saying more transmissible should be less potent. Turn out Delta was both and there was a third factor: period of incubation and infectiousness. Delta was about 3 days average while the original wuhan was more like 7-14 days hence you can see the policy changes as well

So far Omicron seems even more infectious but milder than Delta. Let's see more data on the period

Flattening the curve not only releases stress on the medical system but also on individual imuunity system by reducing viral load. If you meet 1 person with COVID a day is different from say meeting 5. Hence the exponentiality upwards AS WELL AS downwards.

PS it's actually quite interesting and instructive to read what we posted 18 months ago in this thread. That's how VB is useful for reflection with minimal noise.

Those who know a bit of biology will know that the intention of viruses is to profligate themselves. So over time, they will evolve to milder variants while maintain their infectiousness. The Omicron variant is exhibiting such a behavior now, less deadly but more transmissive.

[weijian]

The recovery has been largely priced in (I suppose) for many Covid-19 affected stocks. The question is, what if there is an Echo strain that proves to be much more sticky and then deadlier than the current Delta? (although in nature, the stickier the virus is, the less deadly)

I fully agree with your viewpoint here. The longer this drags on, the higher the chance that a new variant may emerge that makes the current vaccine ineffective.

Omicron looks probable to be the end game to Covid-19. As usual, we usually extrapolate from recent history and then get it wrong, but it is welcomed.

The risk of Covid-19 now seems to move to China, as it decides to continue a zero covid policy, while at the same time not using mRNA vaccines. The developed world will be beating covid with mRNA vaccination + natural immunization via omicron, but China will continue to be immunologically naive without the best vaccine technology that we currently enjoy.

Hong Kong axes quarantine exemptions for aircrew: sources
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/transpo...ew-sources