Why the shale gas fracking fad is the new dotcom bubble

[HitandRun]

I'm not an expert and unsure if the EIA gas rig count refers to conventional AND alternative gas. Shale gas production has been explosive based on the same EIA website, as well as many other sources which one can google. Shale oil and shale gas production are both increasing in US, and with higher oil price, it has a correlated impact on NG prices and uses even though they are different as night and day. And northern China is supposedly phasing out coal fired power plants.

I am pretty sure that you don't know much too. The only reason that so much shale gas is being produced is because of shale oil, i.e. NG associated with shale oil is being produced at the same time. Most companies cannot make money on US$4 per thousand cubic feet of NG or less than $25 per barrel of oil (based on equivalent energy). In fact, I am pretty sure that should WTI crude fall to say $70 bucks, all the shale oil companies will be in trouble. If one has examined the Financial Statements of major shale oil players, one will realise that most of them are cashflow NEGATIVE. I reckon that the jury is still out there whether they are really making much money at the current crude oil pricing.

Shale oil and shale gas production are both increasing in US, and with higher oil price, it has a correlated impact on NG prices and uses even though they are different as night and day.

There is no correlation between crude and NG prices in the US for at least the past 5 years.

US is likely to start exporting NG next year. US NG price dynamics will change and flaring likely to reduce. We don't have to wait too long to see the live on-the-fly changes.

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2014/03/12...d-ukraine/

We can always wait and wait but I will not be holding my breath. E.g. work on the Sabine pass that was invested by Temasek (through Cheniere Energy) commenced several years ago, i.e. it's a long lead time. Theoretically, the export applications total almost 80bcf/day but it will be years before we see much of this in place. In the short run, the weather plays a much bigger role in determining NG prices.