UMS Holdings

[Boon]

On the negative side this quarter FCF doesn't even sustain 1c div payment and next quarter should be even worse so that's concerning for next year special dividend unless they pay it with their net cash which would not be sustainable anyway.

Hi ethys,

What do you think has contributed to the reduction of FCF generated from 10.3 million (in 1Q2014) to 3.9 million (in 2Q2014) ? Given that OCF Before Change in Working Capital in 1Q2014 of 11.6 million is only 1.0 million more than in 2Q2014 of 10.6 million.

1H2014 has already generated FCF of 3.3 cents per share
If 2H2014 could generate FCF of 1.7 cents per share => 5.0 cents
If 2H2014 could generate FCF of 2.7 cents per share => 6.0 cents

FCF/Revenue:
FY2010 = 23.7 / 129.0 = 18.4%
FY2011 = 31.6 / 114.4 = 27.6%
FY2012 = 29.3 / 113.2 = 25.9%
FY2013 = 25.8 / 120.5 = 21.4%
1H2014 = 14.2 / 62.998 = 22.5%

Pick the worst case combination or scenario for FY2014 from the above, excluding FY2010:

FY2014: revenue = 113.2 ; Conversion rate = 21.4%

=> conversion rate for 2H2014 = 20%

FCF (2H2014) = (113.2 - 62.998) x 0.20 / 430 = 2.2 cents per share => 5.5 cents (post bonus) or 6.875 cents per share (pre-bonus) for FY2014.

(vested)