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07-08-2014, 03:55 PM
I wish to go further on your post yesterday:
“What I did was just "forecasting of results" (via Monte Carlo Simulation) using simple and conservative assumptions (which I have already made known upfront).
And I have put in caveats as well. So, pls don't come and blame me if the actual results differ. If the actual result turns out to be very close, I would not claim credit either.
To me, this is just an academic exercise to better understand the cost structure of the company.”
Your projection is wide, between RMB41.2m and RMB55.4m. If the result turns out to be RMB 52m, is it very close? What if it is RMB 43m (as suggested in the Nextinsight article)?
If you refer to previous result announcement by Sunsine, you will note that:
Revenue – cost of sales = gross profit.
In other words, gross profit margin is not an independent number. It is dependent on revenue and cost of sales. But you assume the GPM to be independent of price and vol as follows:
a. price increase of 5% to 15%. (most likely value = 10%)
b. volume increase of 15% to 25% (most likely value = 20%)
c. GPM of 20% to 24% (most likely value = 22%)
“What I did was just "forecasting of results" (via Monte Carlo Simulation) using simple and conservative assumptions (which I have already made known upfront).
And I have put in caveats as well. So, pls don't come and blame me if the actual results differ. If the actual result turns out to be very close, I would not claim credit either.
To me, this is just an academic exercise to better understand the cost structure of the company.”
Your projection is wide, between RMB41.2m and RMB55.4m. If the result turns out to be RMB 52m, is it very close? What if it is RMB 43m (as suggested in the Nextinsight article)?
If you refer to previous result announcement by Sunsine, you will note that:
Revenue – cost of sales = gross profit.
In other words, gross profit margin is not an independent number. It is dependent on revenue and cost of sales. But you assume the GPM to be independent of price and vol as follows:
a. price increase of 5% to 15%. (most likely value = 10%)
b. volume increase of 15% to 25% (most likely value = 20%)
c. GPM of 20% to 24% (most likely value = 22%)