China Sunsine Chemicals Holdings

[simpleman]

Using confidence interval is just a simple scientific way to deal with uncertainties.

You might wish to read up the book by Sam Savage to better appreciate the scientific way to handle uncertainties in input parameters.
"The Flaw of Averages"

http://flawofaverages.com/

The actual 2Q profit is very likely to fall within the wide range of profit (RMB 41.2m and RMB 55.4m) that Curiosparty provided. The wide range is of little help.

The usefulness of the simulations results depends the assumptions made.

Making an assumption on gross profit margin (an increase of 1.4% point only ) without taking into account another assumption of 5% increase in selling price is just not correct.

As I said before, the two (price and gross profit margin) are linked. And this is a basic point.