ICBC : Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (1398)

[Thriftville]

Do you have the link to the source that states >5% NPL?

I am researching on China banks, and the 5% was on a number of analyst report I read. I didn't manage to retain the links

Coincidently, the "NPL" level of YZJ's lending investment was also about 5%, base on its AR.

IMO, the top two concerns on China bank are
- NPL level, since no reliable data available, only guesstimate
- Upcoming interest-rate liberalization, which will depress the interest income

Hi Citi,
I think NPL is not a big issue. Most of the loans are lent to state-owned enterprise, who then sub-lend to smaller businesses. In case of default, the SOE will take the first blow. Gov will also step in to help SOE to prevent confidence crisis. Hence, I feel NPL can be contained.

Rate liberalization wise, most of the lending are controlled by the big 4 banks. I read sometime ago that they have already "fixed" the interest. So, it's unlikely that a price war will break out.