Government determined to increase population to 7 mil in 2030.

[specuvestor]

I disagree with d.o.g that population growth is a simple problem. Observe around in developed world, including even China, and we can easily conclude: urbanisation is the best form of contraceptive.

It is not just a matter of cost, it is also a matter of lifestyle. We look at the immigration policy of Japan and US. Japanese are likely to extinct by the end of this century based on this trajectory while US is the only developed nation in the western world to have growing population.

The idea of 2 is enough is good. It helped in the growth in Singapore without excess burdens... lest we forget the challenges of 1965 is immense if we look back objectively. Compare China and India when the latter is likely to exceed China population end of this decade with the populace no better off. Problem with China is that the execution sucks (pun not intended). To terminate a life after it is conceived at 7 months or so is ridiculous. The problem with Singapore and now China is that they don't know when to loosen the policy. Like I said Urbanisation is the best contraceptive. Post 1972 Singapore population of babies had been steadily decreasing as people urbanised, the govt was too slow to reverse. The same thing is going to happen in China. Even if you take away all penalties, i doubt the china population growth will accelerate anymore, as chinese urbanisation ratio passed 50% for the first time in HISTORY.

The logic of promoting population increase in Singapore is not difficult: it is to increase GDP and spillover effect to GDP per capita. This is what Krugman refers to as growth by perspiration. Concept is simple: you add a person to the labour force, the GDP goes up, ceteris paribus, plus other spillovers. Same idea as getting women into the workforce.

It is much harder to improve efficiency and productivity per worker by say 10% than just increase numbers by 10%. Same logic why vices like casinos are an easy solution but may not be the right solution longer term.

I reiterate: Like Andy Grove says: Only the paranoid survives. 50 years ago, the jewel of British admin was Ceylon, the best managed police force was in Philippines, and the richest SEA country was Myanmar. It only takes one generation to screw things up. I'm wondering how many people understand this hard truth.