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10-05-2012, 11:21 AM
Hi Temperament,
I don't exactly agree that when one buys at the "peak" in 2007 (on hindsight, of course), it is based on "valuations". With a cyclical company like NOL, and with the massive swings in profitability and losses over the years, most value investors would not even touch this with a 100-foot pole.
The only reason I can think of for justifying a purchase would be to catch the cycle, assuming as a retail investor you can time the cycle better than the analysts can!
(For info, most analysts consensus forecasts were way off the mark for NOL for 1Q 2012, to the extent that they were amazingly surprised when the losses were announced).
I don't exactly agree that when one buys at the "peak" in 2007 (on hindsight, of course), it is based on "valuations". With a cyclical company like NOL, and with the massive swings in profitability and losses over the years, most value investors would not even touch this with a 100-foot pole.
The only reason I can think of for justifying a purchase would be to catch the cycle, assuming as a retail investor you can time the cycle better than the analysts can!
(For info, most analysts consensus forecasts were way off the mark for NOL for 1Q 2012, to the extent that they were amazingly surprised when the losses were announced).
My Value Investing Blog: http://sgmusicwhiz.blogspot.com/