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11-04-2025, 01:59 PM
(11-04-2025, 11:36 AM)weijian Wrote: Most VBs already know that this tariff thing is only a losers' game for everyone, but their effects will take some time to transpire out, although stock markets are robustly predictive of them. If everything is uncertain, then some certain stuff will happen. If everything is uncertain, then some certain stuff will happen.What is certain is that we can never have good prices and good news at the same time.
It's interesting that the title of Howard Marks' memo is similar to the ones he had in Sept2008 and March2020. Those were great times of uncertainty (and buying opportunities). President Xi is younger and there are no elections in China - So he and CCP are expected to have a longer runaway than lets say President (or Doctor) Trump and his Republicans. Just like how the market disciplined Xi and CCP, US markets will surely also discipline their own politicians and it will be much faster.
Nobody Knows (Yet Again)
I’ve received a lot of kind responses to Friday’s appearance on Bloomberg TV, and I’m going to use a comment from a viewer to bring us to a conclusion on this subject:
In the 1980s, people like [Trump’s counselor for trade and manufacturing] Peter Navarro decided that Japan pulling ahead of the US in autos threatened the future of the U.S.
Japan did indeed pull ahead and never looked back.
The U.S. economy has more than doubled in size relative to Japan since then. It has doubled even after allowing for population changes and currency strength. It doubled in spite of losing the lead in autos, or is it that it doubled partly because of it? The margins on computer software and jet engines are probably a good deal higher than on mass-market automobiles. (Emphasis added)
https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/...-yet-again
Below is great:
I want to say about 2008 and the other crises I’ve invested through – as well as today – that I don’t reach my conclusions with confidence or act without trepidation. There’s absolutely no place for certainty in the world of investing, and that’s particularly true at turning points and during upheavals.
I’m never sure my answers are right, but if I can reason out what’s most logical, I feel I have to move in that direction.
My views are your Gilbert & Sullivan's:
"The flowers that bloom in the spring, have nothing to do with the case".
"The flowers that bloom in the spring, have nothing to do with the case".