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02-07-2023, 07:26 AM
Here is a comment from Goldman Sachs about the annual result:
"The group revealed that same-store sales growth in the mainland from April to June 21 was flat YoY, in line with Goldman Sachs forecasts, while franchise performance was about 2% higher than before the pandemic. Goldman noted that LUK FOOK's performance was worse than its peer CHOW TAI FOOK (01929.HK) +0.280 (+2.029%) Short selling $19.78M; Ratio 19.808% , whose same-store sales in April-May were about 6% higher than the that of the same period before the pandemic. The broker also expected industry sales to weaken in June.
Goldman noted that LUK FOOK management has become more conservative in its view of the recovery of the mainland market this year, and its expansion plan has been lowered to 350 points of sale from the previous 500."
http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/analys...275167/all
I totally disagree.
1) Overall CTF revenue decreased, LF revenue increased in 2023
2) CTF's EPS declined more than LF, both for the year and 2nd half.
3) LF's April-June 21 same store sales for mainland do not include its license franchises, which dominate their mainland activity and earnings.
The HSBC analyst at the conference call hence asked, if these revenue from the license shops increased in line with market growth, and LF responded they assume so, though numbers will only be available in mid July.
According to Stats China mainland gold, silver and jewelry sales increased by 44.7% in April 23 and 24.4% in May 2023.
4) CTF leads in opening new branches in mainland China since 31/3/2019.
They increased the number of mainland stores from 3116 to 7519, an increase of 141%,
while LF increased their number of mainland license stores from 1614 to 2793, an increase of 73%
5) On the other side CTF reduced the number of HK/Macau stores from 99 to 85, while LF increased them from 60 to 61.
6) Since 2019 the stock price of CTF doubled relative to LF.
P/B of CTF is now 4.5 times higher than LF.
PE (TTM) of CTF is 2.85 time higher than LF.
"The group revealed that same-store sales growth in the mainland from April to June 21 was flat YoY, in line with Goldman Sachs forecasts, while franchise performance was about 2% higher than before the pandemic. Goldman noted that LUK FOOK's performance was worse than its peer CHOW TAI FOOK (01929.HK) +0.280 (+2.029%) Short selling $19.78M; Ratio 19.808% , whose same-store sales in April-May were about 6% higher than the that of the same period before the pandemic. The broker also expected industry sales to weaken in June.
Goldman noted that LUK FOOK management has become more conservative in its view of the recovery of the mainland market this year, and its expansion plan has been lowered to 350 points of sale from the previous 500."
http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/analys...275167/all
I totally disagree.
1) Overall CTF revenue decreased, LF revenue increased in 2023
2) CTF's EPS declined more than LF, both for the year and 2nd half.
3) LF's April-June 21 same store sales for mainland do not include its license franchises, which dominate their mainland activity and earnings.
The HSBC analyst at the conference call hence asked, if these revenue from the license shops increased in line with market growth, and LF responded they assume so, though numbers will only be available in mid July.
According to Stats China mainland gold, silver and jewelry sales increased by 44.7% in April 23 and 24.4% in May 2023.
4) CTF leads in opening new branches in mainland China since 31/3/2019.
They increased the number of mainland stores from 3116 to 7519, an increase of 141%,
while LF increased their number of mainland license stores from 1614 to 2793, an increase of 73%
5) On the other side CTF reduced the number of HK/Macau stores from 99 to 85, while LF increased them from 60 to 61.
6) Since 2019 the stock price of CTF doubled relative to LF.
P/B of CTF is now 4.5 times higher than LF.
PE (TTM) of CTF is 2.85 time higher than LF.