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14-03-2020, 10:18 AM
Personally, i think one of the true unknowns in the current environment, is the state of the EU banks.
Currently the COVID+Oil are knowns risks. While not in gr8 shape, US and China banking sector are prob fine.
But the EU banks e.g Deutsche have never been truly re-cap'd, and with the likely global recession+continent wide shutdown, it doesnt take much for one of these guys to go under, leading to another to-big-to-fail credit crisis.
Currently the COVID+Oil are knowns risks. While not in gr8 shape, US and China banking sector are prob fine.
But the EU banks e.g Deutsche have never been truly re-cap'd, and with the likely global recession+continent wide shutdown, it doesnt take much for one of these guys to go under, leading to another to-big-to-fail credit crisis.