Spindex Industries

[Kaimin]

Made quite a bit on this stock but I do think it has peaked out at the moment, the most maybe rally another 20-30%??? if market is hotter. Not sure if they can grow much more, especially if the auto industry starts going electric. And you will be paying a premium with no margin of safety and very poor div yield.

The other thing is it is still way too thinly traded which means any downside will be big and swift as well. 

I expect it to hit below 50c during a market correction or if the industry they are involved in goes into a downcycle.

Market speculation liao, this is valuebuddies. Using Graham's p/e formula of intrinsic value = 8.5 x (2 annual growth). Spindex last five years CGAR is 15%. From this formula the p/e should be 38.5 or intrinsic value $4.50 per share, which is a nice margin of safety. And the FCF is in line with net income and the accounting is nice and straightforward, unlike the rabak net income recognition so many modern companies use. So got no nasty surprises in income recognition. Virtually no debt also. Looks like a nice value stock.

Ofc there's the worry it's a long term cyclical and all its gains come from the upswing. But even if net income growth becomes zero, you'd still get a p/e of 9, which is solid even in Graham's day. I bo bian do qualitative on the business because they got no precise product breakdown. Best I can tell is they build parts for automotives and consumer electronics and printers, largely for cars and largely in China, which has a good outlook. Their geographical revenue hasn't changed much since 2008, which suggests more organic instead of geographical growth ie because China is growing. 

I really like how even in 2008 their profit when up.