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The fate of rubber chemical industry is inextricably intertwined with the fortune of tyre industry.
Tyre is not a discretionary consumer item because old tyres have to be replaced regulary. As the vehicle popuplation grows, replacement tyres form a rising proportion of overall tyre sale. Consequently, the impact of lower new vehicle sale during economic downturn is diminishing.
Shandong Linglong Tires (山东玲珑轮胎), a leading tyre maker in China listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, stated in its IPO prospectus that 70% of tyres produced are currently for replacements, and the percentage will rise further as vehicle population grows.
According to Goodyear, 1,766 million tyres were sold in 2015 worldwide, 21.3% higher than 2010, or a compound annual growth rate of 3.9%.
Goodyear's projection is that 29.2% more tyres will be sold in 2020 than in 2015, or a compound annual growth rate of 5.2%.
Goodyear has also stated that the trend among car manufacturers towards larger rims will create demand for larger tyres, and of the tyres expected to be sold in 2020, 19% are 17 inches and above, up from 13% in 2015 and 7% in 2010.
![[Image: ?ui=2&ik=a9933cc262&view=fimg&th=15bbed8...2d1ea87&zw]](https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?ui=2&ik=a9933cc262&view=fimg&th=15bbed8862d1ea87&attid=0.1&disp=emb&realattid=ii_15b273eca3c9a6fc&attbid=ANGjdJ9BnQ6D93ANWZ4LP5_qK3AzO8tv969bU2Zu36z1Q1nMNIBHCdfGOgleePJZlp8GMoYouVzfm2f1aSnhf94bxV4pXNDcRpOvlbOPfGEiXbKn12iibVr0W6vSjyE&sz=s0-l75&ats=1493602949755&rm=15bbed8862d1ea87&zw)
If Goodyear is correct, rubber, and rubber chemicals as a consequnce, for tyre production will grow more than 5.2% a year. Given that around 450,000 tonnes of rubber accelerators are produced a year now, the yearly increment will be in excess of 20,000 tonnes.
Rubber accelerators are Sunsine's mainstay. Utilisation of its 87,000-tonne rubber accelerator production capacity was 95% in 2016. Sunsine is going to add 30,000 tonnes, and the necessary infrastructure for another 24,000 tonnes is in place to boost rubber accelerator capacity to 141,000 tonnes.
Kemai and Yanggu Huatai are looking for money (RMB 890m and RMB 1,200 m respectively) to expand to meet rising rubber accelerator demand. They will take three years to build.
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Page 1-1-141, 142 of the IPO prospectus, 山东玲珑轮胎股份有限公司首次公开发行股票招股说明书 ( http://www.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2016-06-21/1202379925.PDF)
轮胎不是一种可选消费品，而是一种必需消费品，其需求的刚性大于汽车 行业。就新车而言，轿车与轮胎的配套比例为 1:5，载重车与轮胎配套比例平均 约为 1:11；在替换市场，每辆轿车每年需替换 1.5 条轮胎，工程机械与载重机械 的替换系数高于轿车，轮胎行业 70%以上的需求由汽车保有量创造。在汽车保有量依然保持正增长的前提下，即使汽车销量出现负增长，依然会创造出持久 的换胎需求。
Tyre is not a discretionary consumer item because old tyres have to be replaced regulary. As the vehicle popuplation grows, replacement tyres form a rising proportion of overall tyre sale. Consequently, the impact of lower new vehicle sale during economic downturn is diminishing.
Shandong Linglong Tires (山东玲珑轮胎), a leading tyre maker in China listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, stated in its IPO prospectus that 70% of tyres produced are currently for replacements, and the percentage will rise further as vehicle population grows.
According to Goodyear, 1,766 million tyres were sold in 2015 worldwide, 21.3% higher than 2010, or a compound annual growth rate of 3.9%.
Goodyear's projection is that 29.2% more tyres will be sold in 2020 than in 2015, or a compound annual growth rate of 5.2%.
Goodyear has also stated that the trend among car manufacturers towards larger rims will create demand for larger tyres, and of the tyres expected to be sold in 2020, 19% are 17 inches and above, up from 13% in 2015 and 7% in 2010.
If Goodyear is correct, rubber, and rubber chemicals as a consequnce, for tyre production will grow more than 5.2% a year. Given that around 450,000 tonnes of rubber accelerators are produced a year now, the yearly increment will be in excess of 20,000 tonnes.
Rubber accelerators are Sunsine's mainstay. Utilisation of its 87,000-tonne rubber accelerator production capacity was 95% in 2016. Sunsine is going to add 30,000 tonnes, and the necessary infrastructure for another 24,000 tonnes is in place to boost rubber accelerator capacity to 141,000 tonnes.
Kemai and Yanggu Huatai are looking for money (RMB 890m and RMB 1,200 m respectively) to expand to meet rising rubber accelerator demand. They will take three years to build.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Page 1-1-141, 142 of the IPO prospectus, 山东玲珑轮胎股份有限公司首次公开发行股票招股说明书 ( http://www.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2016-06-21/1202379925.PDF)
轮胎不是一种可选消费品，而是一种必需消费品，其需求的刚性大于汽车 行业。就新车而言，轿车与轮胎的配套比例为 1:5，载重车与轮胎配套比例平均 约为 1:11；在替换市场，每辆轿车每年需替换 1.5 条轮胎，工程机械与载重机械 的替换系数高于轿车，轮胎行业 70%以上的需求由汽车保有量创造。在汽车保有量依然保持正增长的前提下，即使汽车销量出现负增长，依然会创造出持久 的换胎需求。