21-05-2015, 08:26 PM
(20-05-2015, 08:46 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: IIRC, the 6.9 mil isn't a target, but an estimation, and to be exact, it is 6.5 mil - 6.9 mil. Next, the estimation is on 2030, 15 years from now. A 25% increment over 15 years, means average less than 2% p.a.
I am not sure the derivation of 5.97 cents EPS? Base on 15% increment on sales, and assuming margins remain the same, the EPS estimation should be 3.84 cents (FY2014 EPS of 3.34 cent * 1.15), right?
IMO, the sales mainly come from capturing bigger market share. I am expecting the company sales grow faster than overall market growth in the next 5 years, and reaching $1.2 billion sales in 2020. Together with the margins improvement, the EPS in 2020 is estimated between 5-6 cents, and share price is estimated as $1.30++
(vested, and sharing a view)
I have some rough workings. Upload that later or something. I made assumptions about lower ringgit rates and relatively constant operating costs. I also assumed that margins stay at 24%.
Thanks for sharing ur view.
The thing I am scared most is not nightmares or market crashes..... Its my greed that I fear the most.
When people ask what is my target price, I never have any good answer for it because Philip Fisher said before (in Common Stock Uncommon Profit) that the best time to sell is never. Equity investment is buying into ownership, not betting slips.
The path to greatness and wealth is necessarily dangerous.... because greed is a fearsome fore that threatens your success at every step.
When people ask what is my target price, I never have any good answer for it because Philip Fisher said before (in Common Stock Uncommon Profit) that the best time to sell is never. Equity investment is buying into ownership, not betting slips.
The path to greatness and wealth is necessarily dangerous.... because greed is a fearsome fore that threatens your success at every step.