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This seconds what Big Toe said. Some developer still able to raise selling price despite weak sentiment.
DBS Group, 14 May 2015
Riding on a buoyant upgrader market
Contracted sales came in faster than expected with YTD
sales target hit rate better than peers at 25%
Target to lock in Rmb10bn sales by end-May, as the
recent loosening has unleashed upgrader demand in Tier
1/2 cities.
Management has raised ASPs in recent launches in
Shanghai and Nanjing with strong demand
Upgrade to BUY with new TP at S$1.49
Strong sales pick-up since Mar is likely to continue in May/June.
Yanlord has achieved over Rmb1bn sales in Mar/Apr and locked in
Rmb4.4bn in 4M15 (+54% y-o-y and represents 25% of sales target).
Sales momentum remained strong in May with c.Rmb900m sales
locked in during 1W15. There is another Rmb3.7bn subscribed sales
outstanding (as in first week of May) to be contracted in coming
months.
Better chance to hit full year target after recent launches in Shanghai.
It may be able to hit Rmb10bn subscription sales by end-May,
accounting for 55% of its full year sales target. Its sales progress is
better than our expectation, benefiting from the policy loosening
since end Mar. The company also plans to raise ASP in recent
launches in Shanghai and Nanjing due to strong response to
prelaunch marketing which might help margins recovery.
1Q15 results declined y-o-y with 2%/8% earnings and revenue lockin
due to back-end loaded delivery schedule. Core earnings dropped
by 94% y-o-y to Rmb19m, locking in 2.1% of our full-year estimates
(vs. 16% lock-in in 1Q14). GP margin was 42.3%, higher than our
full-year estimate due to the planned delivery of high-margin projects
in this quarter. No dividend was declared for 1Q, as usual. Net
gearing remained largely flat from end-14 at 46%. Yanlord had
Rmb12.5bn unrecognised sales outstanding as at end-Mar. As 70%
of full-year delivery is planned in 4Q, we expect poor quarterly results
to come in 2Q and 3Q.
Upgrade to BUY on better sales outlook. Yanlord is trading at
S$1.165, 42% discount to NAV, 11.8x FY15 PE and 0.6x PB. It
underperformed China property peers by 27% YTD. Due to
improving outlook for the sector and better-than-expected sales, we
believe the company’s share price may be able to catch up. Upgrade
to BUY, with new TP of S$1.49 based on 15x FY15PE, benchmarked
to its 2012 peak PE.
DBS Group, 14 May 2015
Riding on a buoyant upgrader market
Contracted sales came in faster than expected with YTD
sales target hit rate better than peers at 25%
Target to lock in Rmb10bn sales by end-May, as the
recent loosening has unleashed upgrader demand in Tier
1/2 cities.
Management has raised ASPs in recent launches in
Shanghai and Nanjing with strong demand
Upgrade to BUY with new TP at S$1.49
Strong sales pick-up since Mar is likely to continue in May/June.
Yanlord has achieved over Rmb1bn sales in Mar/Apr and locked in
Rmb4.4bn in 4M15 (+54% y-o-y and represents 25% of sales target).
Sales momentum remained strong in May with c.Rmb900m sales
locked in during 1W15. There is another Rmb3.7bn subscribed sales
outstanding (as in first week of May) to be contracted in coming
months.
Better chance to hit full year target after recent launches in Shanghai.
It may be able to hit Rmb10bn subscription sales by end-May,
accounting for 55% of its full year sales target. Its sales progress is
better than our expectation, benefiting from the policy loosening
since end Mar. The company also plans to raise ASP in recent
launches in Shanghai and Nanjing due to strong response to
prelaunch marketing which might help margins recovery.
1Q15 results declined y-o-y with 2%/8% earnings and revenue lockin
due to back-end loaded delivery schedule. Core earnings dropped
by 94% y-o-y to Rmb19m, locking in 2.1% of our full-year estimates
(vs. 16% lock-in in 1Q14). GP margin was 42.3%, higher than our
full-year estimate due to the planned delivery of high-margin projects
in this quarter. No dividend was declared for 1Q, as usual. Net
gearing remained largely flat from end-14 at 46%. Yanlord had
Rmb12.5bn unrecognised sales outstanding as at end-Mar. As 70%
of full-year delivery is planned in 4Q, we expect poor quarterly results
to come in 2Q and 3Q.
Upgrade to BUY on better sales outlook. Yanlord is trading at
S$1.165, 42% discount to NAV, 11.8x FY15 PE and 0.6x PB. It
underperformed China property peers by 27% YTD. Due to
improving outlook for the sector and better-than-expected sales, we
believe the company’s share price may be able to catch up. Upgrade
to BUY, with new TP of S$1.49 based on 15x FY15PE, benchmarked
to its 2012 peak PE.