Oil Prices

[specuvestor]

It will take some time for SUBSTANTIAL exploration capex to resume... of course those selling widgets for explorations would want them to resume soon...

^^agree. Capex cycle is not going to restart just because oil hits $80. It will only restart when majors see oil price sustainable at >$70 for next 18 months. There is a difference. So choose and TIME the instruments carefully. I wont be surprised most will rise in tandum but i wont be holding them for quarterly results

If one been reading this thread past 6 months, one would have a good idea where the dynamics and catalysts are coming from.

Vested in WTI futures

A Mother Fracker of a Presentation by David Einhorn

Frackers do not make money in general, not by a long stretch. However, methinks that there are quite a few frackers that are in a much, much worse position than PXD, CLR or CXO.

Interesting to see what they do rather than what they say... even the best minds are divided on oil:

(Bloomberg) -- Baupost Group took a new stake in Pioneer
Natural Resources Co. in the first quarter as the hedge fund run
by Seth Klarman added to its beaten-down energy holdings.
Baupost bought shares of Pioneer valued at $517.8 million
at the end of March, according to a regulatory filing, helping
to lift the value of its publicly-disclosed energy holdings by
$678 million.
David Einhorn, who runs hedge fund Greenlight Capital, this
month slammed shale explorers, including Pioneer for spending
too much money without returns.
“Pioneer burns cash and isn’t growing,” Einhorn said at
the Sohn Investment Conference in New York. “Why is the market
paying $27 billion for this company?” He referred to the
Irving, Texas-based company as the “mother fracker.”
Pioneer shares fell 0.9 percent to $151.82 at 9:38 a.m. in
New York, extending declines since the end of the quarter to 7
percent.
Klarman and Dan Loeb, who runs Third Point, led hedge funds
that bought energy stocks in the fourth quarter after a slump in
oil prices drove down stock prices. Baupost also increased its
stake in Antero Resources Corp. by 1.5 million shares to 9.35
million, worth $330.2 million at the end of the first quarter.
Diana DeSocio, a spokeswoman for Baupost, declined to
comment on the investments.
Baupost’s disclosed U.S. equity holdings rose in value by
16.5 percent to almost $6 billion during the quarter, a period
when the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index of U.S. equities rose 0.4
percent.
Baupost also added to its stake in Atara Biotherapeutics
Inc. The value of its position increased by $131.2 million to
$198 million as of March 31, the biggest gain among previously
disclosed holdings. It sold stock in Veritiv Corp. and exited
Syneron Medical Ltd.
Money managers who oversee more than $100 million in
equities in the U.S. must file a Form 13F within 45 days of each
quarter’s end to list those stocks as well as options and
convertible bonds. The filings don’t show non-U.S. securities,
holdings that aren’t publicly traded, or cash.