Neptune Orient Lines (NOL)

[tonyking]

My only regrets is I should have recognize the turning doji after I sold. My initial view was correct but its too early, well that's part of trading... For those who stick to the longer value, you should have earned now since it has risen from posting $0.775 to $0.82 today...

No companies are worthless, the listing status itself is worth something... so for longer term investors, they should still look at NOL & its APL as a cigar one-time value play. Each to their own... Our monies at the end of the day tell us if we are right, any other opinions are just for consideration at most...

wah lau... mr Trader u really wasted so many buddies' precious time to talk you out.

Next time may be we should state if we are Trading Vested...

GG

Since the posting of this comment, I mentioned I am vested but the resumption of fall today has prompted me to exit. Its likely a greater value will appear later, but I am no longer holding it based on my trade philosophy.

Noticed bulk of views on NOL are pretty negative, as though its a sham coy which I believe its clearly not... NOL has its glory days during the SG independence, then swallowing up a larger APL w Tamesek backing till today. Thus adopting a contrarian approach, I did some research below & hope to shine some lights on this fallen angel...whose salvation may come after Nov 14 (read more below) [vested]

First, lets look at 31 Oct 14, Results Presentation: Group Core EBIT Trend
[img][/img]

Next, the last NAV was US$0.73 which translates to S$0.92
[Almost 18% of discount aka margin of safety from last close $0.76]

Then the Group Commentary
"Global economic prospects are uncertain. Persistent oversupply of shipping
capacity continues to negatively impact liner freight rates. Nonetheless, the
Group’s cost management and operational efficiency program remains on-track.
The Group aims to continue to improve its operating performance."

Not rosy, but its cost management is on track & clearly shown in the EBIT trend, with the traditionally Q4 & Q1 peak quarters, strenghtening US$, US X'mas & stronger economy, imports along APL will increase compared with past years when US is on "ICU" with QE123, now that QE3 is gone & US continues its recovery... APL will be a prized gem all logistics companies going after...

And to the most important point... NOL is selling APL!!
http://www.todayonline.com/business/nol-...stics-unit

Invitation to bids for APL (min.asking price US$1 billion) have been sent, asking for first round bids by November 2014. Already Korea's CJ Korea Express has signaled its interests, I suspect there's more unannounced bids coming (infer from past week's MACD & Force index divergence, lower price but higher MACD histograms & force index, similar for other indicators).

Putting US$1 billion ask price with retrospect to its 31 Oct 14's Q3 Total Assets of US$8.9 billion and Net Assets of US$0.182 billion; the successful sale of APL would results in a bonanza of liquid cash/shares (from purchasing company)... this sale if succeeds will likely results in base scenario "Return of capital/huge dividend" or exchange with new shares (depending on acquiring company's cash/share ratio).

This may well be a once in a lifetime cigar opportunity to profit from this conglomerate NOL.

TK's 2cents view...